99942 Apophis - The actual menace from space

[Bells]

I'm pretty sure some of you already know about this fully well, i do for quite some time. But ever since the whole 2012 "bang" with the movie i wanted to talk about it, so, here it is.

For those who have no idea about it, just a quick recap.

A Huge Meteor is actually coming to earth with a decent chance of hitting us. The Apophis is the size of the Rose bowl Stadium in the US, so...

http://www.stadiumdb.com/images/stadiums/north%20america/usa/pasadena,%20california/rose-bowl.jpg

...This.

It is stated that by April 13, 2029, Apophis will come so close to earth, that it will be the closest biggest object to ever come to earth. It also will allow scientists to study it's trajectory by then to verify if it WILL hit earth on 2036.

So, if it hits... what then?

Well, it depends on it's orbit at a time. But once it's confirmed that will Hit earth, it can have a Ground Zero impact in any of the following places

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e0/2037_Apophis_Path_of_Risk.jpg

And i would like to talk about what could happen if it hitted any of these places, but i would rather let an expert talk for me about THAT.
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaW4Ol3_M1o)

So, by 2036 i'll be 51 Years old when this goes down, and there is a chance of nothing happening or i'll see a chunk of somewhere in the globe getting sandblasted away.

Awesome?

Discuss!

[Osterbaum]

No worries, I'm sure SG1 can deal with it if it comes to that.

[krogothwolf]

If its going to hit, who will lead me in establishing a Mad Max style nation?

Man, the thing might totally miss canada? That is slightly depressing :( Although it does look like it has a chance to take out a couple of small islands.

[Bells]

Man, the thing might totally miss canada? That is slightly depressing :( Although it does look like it has a chance to take out a couple of small islands.

Like Cuba? Or are you talking about Japan?

It could hit dead center in Mexico too!

[krogothwolf]

I'm not a 100% sure but it also looks like it might be able to take out Hawaii....

[Flarecobra]

Well, seeing as the " Gravitational Keyhole" for this thing have it's orbit changed is only 600 meters wide, and the chances of it hitting in 2036 at 1 in 250,000....I wouldn't worry about it.

Source. (http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2009/oct/HQ_09-232_Apophis_Update.html)

[Bells]

The actual problem with it hitting the ocean is not actually the Tsunamis it would cause, i think, but if it just happens to hit with the "hidden" danger of this thing hitting a Tectonic Plate hotspot

http://jbartin.com/SPS/sps%20unit%202/tectonic%20plates.gif

If you cross both paths and consider the sheer power of the impact, it could trigger some nasty stuff.

[Frostatine]

I have returned to the 8bit forums to help avert this crisis. Who will join me?

[Marc v4.0]

Just the Rose Bowl? That really doesn't seem too big.

What percentage of it can we assume to burn away on descent? What are the chances of it breaking up and spreading the impact over a large surface area instead of a concentrated spot? What can we speculate about the material composition of the object? Is it a heavy slug of metal or a big dirtclod?

[CABAL49]

NASA already has a few plans to prevent meteors from actually impacting the Earth. There are already satellites that would allow scientists to predict whether it would actually hit or not.

I have returned to the 8bit forums to help avert this crisis. Who will join me?

Only if we get to become tyrants afterward. We wouldn't be true forum goers if we did anything otherwise. It would be immoral not to.

[Frostatine]

There is a difference between plans to prevent, and there actually being something we can do about it. There are a lot of things that might work theoretically, but I wouldn't exactly want to stake my planet on the idea.

[Green Spanner]

There is a difference between plans to prevent, and there actually being something we can do about it. There are a lot of things that might work theoretically, but I wouldn't exactly want to stake my planet on the idea.

Even when the alternative is being wiped out by a meteor?

Seriously, what do you have to lose?

[Frostatine]

I'm just saying that it would make better business sense for NASA to simply say "Look, guys, we got this." And continue to get funding and support, rather than taking the humble way out. I mean, honestly, who wants to support a space program that can't even blow up stuff in space? InB4 the moon.

And of course there will be a New World Order. Where do you think I've been all this time?

[stefan]

so from what I'm reading once it passes by in 2029, we'll know if its going to hit or not and, if it is, we then have seven years to prepare for it.

this is not exactly Armageddon, where we have only two weeks before impact and have to train a wacky team of misfits to take it down at the last second. I think seven years is enough time to figure out exactly what we need to do.

[Bells]

On the wikipedia Article (not linked) and the the video i linked about it, you can see that this is not even close to be able to wipe us out in one hit.

However, if it does hit it's Perfect-Zero Ground, it will plunge 3 miles in the ocean, explode, and generate a rapid succesion of 5 stores high Tsunami waves that would Sandblast clean the entirety of the West coast of the US (sorry if i mispoke here, it's wherever Malibu is) by a quarter of a mile.

My personal idea also goes to the possibility of some pretty nasty Earthquake Swarms.

[bluestarultor]

On the wikipedia Article (not linked) and the the video i linked about it, you can see that this is not even close to be able to wipe us out in one hit.

However, if it does hit it's Perfect-Zero Ground, it will plunge 3 miles in the ocean, explode, and generate a rapid succesion of 5 stores high Tsunami waves that would Sandblast clean the entirety of the West coast of the US (sorry if i mispoke here, it's wherever Malibu is) by a quarter of a mile.

My personal idea also goes to the possibility of some pretty nasty Earthquake Swarms.

I hate to say it, but a quarter mile isn't all that much. You can easily walk that distance. Unless that's how far the wave will get before crashing down, in which case the water might maybe get to a mile in, just to pull a number out of my rear, but again, you can easily walk that far. Mainland areas really don't have too, too much to worry about, and it'll be easy enough to evacuate beforehand. Basically, from what you're saying, a water landing will do less damage than an average hurricane to any cities it affects; it'll just affect more cities. Islands will have a lot more to worry about, though, so they'll have to be evacuated. Finding places for all of Japan, Hawaii, etc. will be pretty difficult, but, hey, we have time to prepare.


My concern is if it hits land, because an impact like that is going to decimate a wide area and throw up a LOT of the crust. My guess is a land hit would make Mount St. Helen's look like a sneeze. Again, just speaking out my behind.

[Eltargrim]

According to the wiki page on this asteroid, we're talking gigaton-range energy. Suffice to say, that would be bad. Luckily, it's a 0 on the Torino scale; not all that worrisome.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Meh, personally I don't get out of bed for anything less than a mile wide when it comes to asteroids. Not exactly an ELE here.


And I wouldn't worry about it creating tsnuamis and destroying america; by that time La Palma would have already collapsed into the sea and wiped out the entire East coast.

[Amake]

I'm mightily disappointed by the amount of misspelled itses in this thread, people. Remember, it's is short for
it is.

Meanwhile, I think the most interesting part of this is that we get to know about it 20 years in advance. Take that, conspiracy theorists. Also, that if it hits us it will be the worst thing that's happened in the history of history, but still not enough to worry about the end of the world. If everyone gets out of the blast zone in good time it might even qualify as Hella Cool. I'm kinda hoping it does hit now, it'd be awesome to see something like that. Like Tunguska but probably 50 times louder.

[Frostatine]

I'm mightily disappointed that people still think the color gold is classy. Its just silly. It's.

Anything striking the planet that is bigger than a car is a bit of a problem. I mean, honestly we can't just chalk it up to collateral damage that we will have to deal with in a few years. Rather, we should put all our great science towards something more productive than killing one another.

[Wigmund]

Wait, it could hit in the middle of the Pacific? It could hit the Garbage Patch, have some kinda reaction between the alien elements of the asteroid and the chemical stew of the patch, and then...

Hedorah!
http://media.giantbomb.com/uploads/0/3564/457141-hedorah2_large.jpg
Where's Godzilla to save us from this environmental aesop?

[krogothwolf]

We don't need godzillia! We need the damn Megazord!

[Hanuman]

Somalia has never looked more safe!

[Bells]

Ah! My bad, i mispoke.

The tsunami here does not go in a quarter of a mile.

Just the first wave will do that.

Per estimative when the first tsunami wave is launched, the ocean will have a 3x3 miles hole in it. So, as the Wall of water cavitates back, the motion will suck the first wave back in and generates the next wave, which should be lower and reach longer (still, a 5 store high Wall of water is pretty fucking scary)

[CABAL49]

I'm just saying that it would make better business sense for NASA to simply say "Look, guys, we got this." And continue to get funding and support, rather than taking the humble way out. I mean, honestly, who wants to support a space program that can't even blow up stuff in space? InB4 the moon.



Well, they do have a plan to prevent it from crashing into us, but it isn't very exciting. They could blow it up, but they don't want to deal with debris.

[Bells]

Blowing it up only works if you reduce it to veeeeeeeeeeery small pieces, But there is no guarantee of that. And yeah, i know, "We got nukes, Everybody got nukes. Let's nuke it!" But pretty much every scientist in this case already discarded that idea as unlikely to get positive results.

[Lost in Time]

You don't use the nukes to blow it up, but in fact, use the force of the nukes to push it back into space. Duh.

[bluestarultor]

You don't use the nukes to blow it up, but in fact, use the force of the nukes to push it back into space. Duh.

Uhh, just the US and Russia have enough nukes to blow EARTH up there, chief. Many times over. I think we could spare, say, a few hundred of them to save ourselves from a giant impact. Each.


Hyperbole, but the point is that unless it's made of magical space metal that's immune to explosions, we could easily turn it into a fine powder.

[Amake]

I realized, upon writing this post, that Armageddon is completely crazy. The movie that is. One of the many, many things it got wrong is how nukes would do no damage to the asteroid because it's faster than the explosion velocity. One, nukes explode with a speed of about 1/200th of light and two, the asteroid's speed relative to Earth is completely irrelevant. I'm not an astrophysics expert, but I think the only factors that would affect the explosion's momentum in this case would be that of the missile carrying the bomb (not much) and the asteroid's gravity (a lot more). Speed, as Einstein might have said, is relative.

So yeah, send up 150 nukes and blah blah.

[greed]

Uhh, just the US and Russia have enough nukes to blow EARTH up there, chief. Many times over. I think we could spare, say, a few hundred of them to save ourselves from a giant impact. Each.


Hyperbole, but the point is that unless it's made of magical space metal that's immune to explosions, we could easily turn it into a fine powder.


No , no they don't. Not even close. At all. They have enough to cover the earth with explosions, maybe. That would render the surface uninhabitable, but it would not destroy the planet. Hell I don't think we have enough firepower to destroy a small mountain range.

A rock the size of a stadium though, yeah we could probably blow that up.

[Bells]

To quote the video that i linked in the first post (you guys should really check it out)

"Turns out we're very good at blowing stuff up... we're less good at figuring it out where the pieces go after it blows up"


EDIT: My Bad, i noticed that the video i linked was not the one i was referring to. It's the one that starts right after the one i linked.

here it is

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-ReuLZ2quc

[Eltargrim]

Exactly. We don't want to blow it up, we want to put it into a stable, predictable orbit that has nothing to do with the earth in any way, shape or form. And it's going to be a lot easier if we start it sooner rather than later.

[Sithdarth]

They actually did experiments and the effectiveness of nukes for both blowing up and diverting an incoming object varies widely with composition. Like a small comet we might be able to break up small enough maybe. Anything made out of rock is going to shrug off any blast that comes from the outside. A solid asteroid, like those ones that are all iron, can potentially be deflected by a stand off explosion or two. A porous rock asteroid is pretty much death. We can't really break it up effectively and it'll absorb the force of the explosion internally and won't deflect much if at all.

[Frostatine]

Okay, if you put a few hundred nukes about a mile down at certain key points in fault lines, yes I'm pretty sure you could either shatter the planet or damage it to the point that living on it would be pretty pointless. But regardless of that I don't really consider myself an expert on the effects of nuclear weapons when used on a mass scale, nor do I pretend to know exactly how many nukes there are in existence.

Besides, why use nukes? We can just attach rockets to the moon to put it in the path of the meteor. Which would be significantly more badass.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

I think all this talk about how we can't sufficiantly cause enough damage to an asteriod with nukes just goes to show we aren't using big enough explosives. I don't care what you're made of or how fast you're going, a 1000 Megaton explosive is going to FUCK you up!

Hell even half that or even a quarter would probably do the trick. Largest nuke ever detonated was only rated between 60-100 MT, and its shockwave circled the earth three fucking times!


In true NPF style, we just need to apply more force. Absurdly more.

[Pip Boy]

You guys just freak out every time someone mentions a large meteor impacting earth because you're bitter about the fact that the dinosaurs might have been killed by one and you don't get to ride a Tyranosaurus to school.

Its time to stop the hate. Meteors are our friends.

[Tev]

Its time to stop the hate. Meteors are our friends.Hey at least this time around when we're dead and gone and the race of dolphin men populate the world in our place, and they developed space technology and visit the moon, they'll be all "Hey, who left this junk here?"

Dinosaurs didn't leave their crap on the moon. And the http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/Dinosaucers.jpg totally forgot.

[Sifright]

Pretty sure the largest one ever detonated was the Tsar bomb which was like 60 mega tonnes a TT nuke would well it would radiate alot of energy but the problem is explosions don't propagate the same way in space as they do in an atmosphere.

[Eltargrim]

Okay, if you put a few hundred nukes about a mile down at certain key points in fault lines, yes I'm pretty sure you could either shatter the planet or damage it to the point that living on it would be pretty pointless. But regardless of that I don't really consider myself an expert on the effects of nuclear weapons when used on a mass scale, nor do I pretend to know exactly how many nukes there are in existence.

There are not nearly enough nukes to even make a dent. Nuclear weapons can destroy the world in the sense that we'd all be dead, but you have to consider that the K-T boundary (in theory) was caused by an asteroid of about 100 teratons in energy. That's over 2 million of the biggest nukes ever made in a single bomb. And the Earth is still here. It's a tough old bird.

Besides, why use nukes? We can just attach rockets to the moon to put it in the path of the meteor. Which would be significantly more badass.

True, but I like having predictable lunar effects. I'll settle for a rocket on the asteroid itself.

EDIT: The largest nuclear weapon ever detonated was the Tsar Bomba, and it had a 50 MT yield. It's fireball was 8km in diameter, and it's seismic activity was observable on it's third revolution of the Earth. Which, while impressive for a man-made device, is still far short of world-killer status.

[Mesden]

What's all this talk about blowing it up? Just tow it with a spaceship and gravity.

[Bells]

You guys just freak out every time someone mentions a large meteor impacting earth because you're bitter about the fact that the dinosaurs might have been killed by one and you don't get to ride a Tyranosaurus to school.

Its time to stop the hate. Meteors are our friends.


A T-Rex would be like a Porsche. 2 Confortable seats, no space for luggage, a luxurious presentation... plus, fuel consumption is a bitch.

I would rather ride a Stegosaurus... it's more of a "Family" Dino transport, but the extra room in the backseat comes handy with the ladies! Plus, better Mileage!

[Shyria Dracnoir]

A T-Rex would be like a Porsche. 2 Confortable seats, no space for luggage, a luxurious presentation... plus, fuel consumption is a bitch.

I would rather ride a Stegosaurus... it's more of a "Family" Dino transport, but the extra room in the backseat comes handy with the ladies! Plus, better Mileage!

Not to mention customized chrome-plated thagomizers!

[stefan]

I kinda think the best option would be to just fly up, bolt some rocket engines on that bitch, and send it on a collision course with the sun. then we never have to deal with it ever ever.

[Mesden]

Don't even have to do that. The thing is the size of a football stadium, right? Send up a shuttle that's a few tons in mass and put it within the same orbit as the asteroid. They have similar gravitational pull so, as they travel, they'll get drawn towards each other (This is because there's no large bodies near them to affect their gravity otherwise.) Attach some retro rockets to the shuttle and have it slowly pull away from the big ass rock and it'll tow the thing away as it tries to drift towards the shuttle. Voila, rock moved out of keyhole.

[Bells]

Don't even have to do that. The thing is the size of a football stadium, right? Send up a shuttle that's a few tons in mass and put it within the same orbit as the asteroid. They have similar gravitational pull so, as they travel, they'll get drawn towards each other (This is because there's no large bodies near them to affect their gravity otherwise.) Attach some retro rockets to the shuttle and have it slowly pull away from the big ass rock and it'll tow the thing away as it tries to drift towards the shuttle. Voila, rock moved out of keyhole.

Not only that is the main game plan right now, it's something you can calculate with precision in a lab doing simulations.

I guess the only problem would be to get the shuttle back after it's mission...

[Tev]

I guess the only problem would be to get the shuttle back after it's mission...Make it a remote control shuttle and program it to land on the moon when it's done. Then we can use it to start our beginings of a lunar base.

[Eltargrim]

Or you could just not worry about recovering it and make it a one-time use thing. We do that often enough that it's not that worrying.

[Wigmund]

Let's have Apophis slam into the Moon. I want some fucking fireworks in the sky and since Betelgeuse (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse#Fate) isn't likely to go nova anytime soon, an asteroid diverted to strike the Moon's face instead of us is a small consolation prize.

[Bells]

Actually i think people would rather put astronauts in a suicide mission (with their consent) than to put all their bets in remote control.

With Humans on board you can have both. Human control on the scene and remote control in case of need. But if you go 100% remote, any flaw can cause the entire mission to go south, and it's not like you can make one of those shuttles over the week.

[Tev]

Eh, then just make the super-shuttle have a mini-escape shuttle detachment that the heroes can fly home after setting the self destruct and riding the fireball all the way to Earth’s atmosphere.

[Geminex]

Wait, why not just pull the meteor into earth's orbit, hollow it out, fill it with foot soldiers and guns, then send it for the nearest probably-life supporting system!

We can name it the "Waagh!".

[Dracorion]

No, no, see. We land the meteor on Earth and use it's precious space ores to forge mechas! Maybe even super-mechas.

[Frostatine]

I think we should tell China to take care of it, and in exchange we'll say that although they didn't win the space race, they won the "save the world from an apocalypse that was not man-made" race. I mean, honestly, they would all jump at the opportunity, which has a force of several hundred tons of TNT. Which is not that much, 10 tons of TNT is only like 1 TMNT.

[Bells]

I think we should tell China to take care of it, and in exchange we'll say that although they didn't win the space race, they won the "save the world from an apocalypse that was not man-made" race. I mean, honestly, they would all jump at the opportunity, which has a force of several hundred tons of TNT. Which is not that much, 10 tons of TNT is only like 1 TMNT.

Or you guys could "accidentally" deflect it from it's trajectory so it will hit China.

It would be like cutting the breaks of their cars, but in cosmic proportions...

with that said...

http://marmalademusings.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/mandark2.jpg

...i'll take my leave.