All I know is that the inactives usually end up NOT being mafiates because in the previous games I've played, particularily Incedius' game, the mafia was basically the only people who were left contributing in day posts and such, or atleast 3 of them were, and I'm assuming that the other 2 were there too.
Mesden, you seriously overreacted to my vote, and that draws a hellovalot of suspicious towards you from me. You seemed to go WAY overboard in trying to defend yourself, much more than was needed.
Catlover, you voted for Mesden for basically the same reason I still suspect Mesden, her overblown reaction to my vote for her.
Crazyben, the worst time to play this game is at night, since thats where all the killing roles outside the townie lynch are. And a no lynch, seriously, worst thing to do.
I'm going to show the chances of killing a mafiate here with a lynch, vig, and SK. with actual numbers and not just saying, "its better to lynch"
there are 21 players left. 5 of which is the mafia, and 1 is the serial killer so thats 6 threats to the town. THe town has the Vig, PO, doctor and Reporter (I hope I'm not forgetting anyone) for a total of 4 roles pro-town. that leaves 11 vanilla townies in the game.
Now we know the Mafia is going to kill the 1 player, that player could be the SK too, so the odds of them hitting any given person is 1/16 or 6.25% (SK and vigilante is this too), Town role is 4 in 16 or 25%, and vanilla townie is 11 in 16 or 68.75%
The serial killer and vigilante each dont know who is who so the odds of them hitting eachother is 1 in 20 (they cant hit themselves) or 5%, odds of hitting a Townie role (PO, Doc, VIG, Reporter) are 4 in 20 or 20% and the odds of hitting a mafiate is 5 in 20 or 25% and finally hitting a vanilla townie is 55%
And the odds of the town lynching a vanilla townie are 11 in 21 or 52.3%,for lynching a mafiate 5 in 21 or 23.8%, lynching a townie role is 4 in 21 or 19%.
So given that, we have 3 chances that one of those 4 killing chances will any of the three night roles, with odds being greatest on the mafiate (5 of the 7 night killers and 5 of the 20 (21 for town) total town members.
Correct me if my math is wrong here but the odds of having atleast ONE of those 3 hitting a mafiate is done like this [1-(.75 X .75 X .762)]=.571375 or 57% chance of having ONE of those three killings to be a mafiate kill. thats OVER half. but thats also a .428625 or 42.8% chance of not hitting a mafiate at all with all 3 of those roles. *
Chance of hitting a townie role is 4 chances (except vigilante, his odds are going to be slightly different and wont bother doing) are found like this. [1-(.8 X .8 X .75 X.81)]=.6112 or 61.12% chance of having one of the 4 killing roles killing a townie role. *
*for the statistics part here, I calculated the chance of all 3 missing and then subtracted that from 1 to find the chance of atleast 1 hitting.
for now, my vote stays on Mesden.
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