what I said the stuff for lynching was
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Originally Posted by Me
there are 21 players left. 5 of which is the mafia, and 1 is the serial killer so thats 6 threats to the town. THe town has the Vig, PO, doctor and Reporter (I hope I'm not forgetting anyone) for a total of 4 roles pro-town. that leaves 11 vanilla townies in the game.
Now we know the Mafia is going to kill the 1 player, that player could be the SK too, so the odds of them hitting any given person is 1/16 or 6.25% (SK and vigilante is this too), Town role is 4 in 16 or 25%, and vanilla townie is 11 in 16 or 68.75%
The serial killer and vigilante each dont know who is who so the odds of them hitting eachother is 1 in 20 (they cant hit themselves) or 5%, odds of hitting a Townie role (PO, Doc, VIG, Reporter) are 4 in 20 or 20% and the odds of hitting a mafiate is 5 in 20 or 25% and finally hitting a vanilla townie is 55%
And the odds of the town lynching a vanilla townie are 11 in 21 or 52.3%,for lynching a mafiate 5 in 21 or 23.8%, lynching a townie role is 4 in 21 or 19%.
So given that, we have 3 chances that one of those 4 killing chances will any of the three night roles, with odds being greatest on the mafiate (5 of the 7 night killers and 5 of the 20 (21 for town) total town members.
Correct me if my math is wrong here but the odds of having atleast ONE of those 3 hitting a mafiate is done like this [1-(.75 X .75 X .762)]=.571375 or 57% chance of having ONE of those three killings to be a mafiate kill. thats OVER half. but thats also a .428625 or 42.8% chance of not hitting a mafiate at all with all 3 of those roles. *
Chance of hitting a townie role is 4 chances (except vigilante, his odds are going to be slightly different and wont bother doing) are found like this. [1-(.8 X .8 X .75 X.81)]=.6112 or 61.12% chance of having one of the 4 killing roles killing a townie role. *
*for the statistics part here, I calculated the chance of all 3 missing and then subtracted that from 1 to find the chance of atleast 1 hitting.
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Basically this reads like this. I'll put in the form of a table
...........chance to kill
Role
.......Vig
.......PO/Doc/Reporter
.......SK
.........Mafia
........Vanilla Townie
Vig
.......0%
..............15%
.................5%
.........20%
.........60%
SK
........5%
..............15%
.................0%
.........20%
.........60%
Mafia
....6.25%
..........18.75%
.............6.25%
.....0%
...........68.75%
Lynch
....4.7%
...........14.2%
...............4.7%
.....23.8%
.......52.3%
If we do the lynch,
we have a 57% chance of getting atleast ONE mafiate.
Chance of hitting atleast 1 townie role (exluding vigilante) is 61%
*Chance the Vig will be hit is 15% (1-[.95 x .953 x .9375])
Without the lynch the odds of each of those roles being killed off is just the first 3 lines of the shown table and each role being killed off becomes this.
atleast 1 mafiate killed off is 36% (1-[.8 x .8])
atleast 1 town role (excluding Vigilante) being killed off is 41% (1-[.85 x .85 x .8125)
chance the Vigilante is killed off becomes 11% (1-[.95 x .9375])
So lets compare in another table shall we?
Odds of killing atleast 1
.......with Lynch
.............No Lynch
Mafiate
...............................57%
......................36%
PO/Doc/Reporter
...................61%
......................41%
VIG/SK
................................15%
......................11%
*Vigilante is so much less because he's 1 person whereas the other townie roles have 3 chances of having one of them being hit (PO, Doc, and Reporter)
Also for the purposes of making my life easier but still keeping the stats true, if you want the odds of the Serial killer being killed off, just look at the odds the Vigilante has of being killed off. Their the same odds.
Sorry for the double post if that happened.
Thanx Newb.
Edit: OH and before I go deeper, what I meant by checking them, I meant their posting history from May 22nd to May 26th, But I fear that may also reveal TOO much information about checked persons.