The Warring States of NPF - View Single Post

Sithdarth · 07-10-2006, 06:38 AM

Ok I'm going to throw this out there:

When one looks at the front page list one notices 3 evil roles clustered towards that top. Now assuming Garud randomly distributed his roles with some kind of random number thingy, we can infer some things probablistically.

1) While the individual odds of any role landing on any spot on the list is even the odds of them all landing right next to each other get slimer and slimer the more that wind up that way. Knowing this those sections of the list that have the most consectutive unknown roles are the most likely place for a mafiate role. That would mean Skeleton, Ogrianes, Sithdarth(Me), Neyo The King, grthwllms, The Space Pope, Fenris Wolf, Darthmauler, and Mesden have the highest probablity using this method. Followed by Newb, Ecurt, Daisuke, and MoM. Then finally, h4x m4g3, and Thundergod Cid.

2) Those closest to a mafiate role have a slightly lower probability of being a mafiate, for reasons stated above. Basically this is like say flipping a coin twice and ending up with both sides the same. While each flip is still 50/50 ending up with both heads or both tails is only a 1 in 4 chance. Flip a coin forty times and list the results then group them into pairs and count up how many pairs are both the same and how many different. It shoud come out as being about 50/50. Which means the chances of two consectutive heads or tails is 1/4. So I'd say Ogrianes, Sithdarth(Me), Neyo, grth, Fenris, Darthmauler, and Mesden have the highest probablistic chance in all. Skeleton and The Space Pope coming in close second. Possibly tied by MoM, Newb and H4x m4ge(he gets bumped up so much for being fartherest from any known evil role), then Daisuke and Thundergod Cid bring up the rear.

Now if we cross reference with posting history we find that Darthmauler, Newb, H4x m4g3, and grth have the lowest post counts in this list. (Dmauler:4, Newb:6, H4x:7, grth:9) Next up at under 20 posts we have: Skeleton: 11, Thundergod: 11, Ogrianes: 12, The Space Pop: 16 Daisuke: 16, MoM: 17, and Neyo: 19. Then the over 30 crowd: Sithdarth(Me): 30, Ecurt: 39, Fenris: 49, and Mesden way up at 87.

So given all that infromation I might arrange my list thusly:
1) Darthmauler
2) Grthwllms
3) Skeleton
4) Ogrianes
5) Newb
6) H4x m4g3
7) The Space Pope
8) Neyo the King
9) MoM
10) Ecurt
11) Sithdarth(Me)
12) Daisuke
13) Fenris Wolf
14) Thunder God Cid
15) Mesden

Now I haven't done any actual calculation, nor is this actually proof of anything. Its basically a guage for myself so that when presented with two arguments of equal weight I'll have something else to help decide. Also, as much as I like just going buy post count this approach added two more variables hopefully increasing the accuracy of its predictions at least slightly. Now I could go further and cross reference with latest post and the degree to which it was helpfull but that's a little to much work for right now. I'll probably do that next time.

07-10-2006, 06:38 AM	#610
Sithdarth Friendly Neighborhood Quantum Hobo Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Outside the M-brane look'n in Posts: 5,403	Ok I'm going to throw this out there: When one looks at the front page list one notices 3 evil roles clustered towards that top. Now assuming Garud randomly distributed his roles with some kind of random number thingy, we can infer some things probablistically. 1) While the individual odds of any role landing on any spot on the list is even the odds of them all landing right next to each other get slimer and slimer the more that wind up that way. Knowing this those sections of the list that have the most consectutive unknown roles are the most likely place for a mafiate role. That would mean Skeleton, Ogrianes, Sithdarth(Me), Neyo The King, grthwllms, The Space Pope, Fenris Wolf, Darthmauler, and Mesden have the highest probablity using this method. Followed by Newb, Ecurt, Daisuke, and MoM. Then finally, h4x m4g3, and Thundergod Cid. 2) Those closest to a mafiate role have a slightly lower probability of being a mafiate, for reasons stated above. Basically this is like say flipping a coin twice and ending up with both sides the same. While each flip is still 50/50 ending up with both heads or both tails is only a 1 in 4 chance. Flip a coin forty times and list the results then group them into pairs and count up how many pairs are both the same and how many different. It shoud come out as being about 50/50. Which means the chances of two consectutive heads or tails is 1/4. So I'd say Ogrianes, Sithdarth(Me), Neyo, grth, Fenris, Darthmauler, and Mesden have the highest probablistic chance in all. Skeleton and The Space Pope coming in close second. Possibly tied by MoM, Newb and H4x m4ge(he gets bumped up so much for being fartherest from any known evil role), then Daisuke and Thundergod Cid bring up the rear. Now if we cross reference with posting history we find that Darthmauler, Newb, H4x m4g3, and grth have the lowest post counts in this list. (Dmauler:4, Newb:6, H4x:7, grth:9) Next up at under 20 posts we have: Skeleton: 11, Thundergod: 11, Ogrianes: 12, The Space Pop: 16 Daisuke: 16, MoM: 17, and Neyo: 19. Then the over 30 crowd: Sithdarth(Me): 30, Ecurt: 39, Fenris: 49, and Mesden way up at 87. So given all that infromation I might arrange my list thusly: 1) Darthmauler 2) Grthwllms 3) Skeleton 4) Ogrianes 5) Newb 6) H4x m4g3 7) The Space Pope 8) Neyo the King 9) MoM 10) Ecurt 11) Sithdarth(Me) 12) Daisuke 13) Fenris Wolf 14) Thunder God Cid 15) Mesden Now I haven't done any actual calculation, nor is this actually proof of anything. Its basically a guage for myself so that when presented with two arguments of equal weight I'll have something else to help decide. Also, as much as I like just going buy post count this approach added two more variables hopefully increasing the accuracy of its predictions at least slightly. Now I could go further and cross reference with latest post and the degree to which it was helpfull but that's a little to much work for right now. I'll probably do that next time.