[Ryanderman]

Ok then,

Vote: Moogle

Here's why:

It all comes down to Sithdarth. He was killed night 2. Before that, either on nights 2 or 1 he was inducted by the Cults of both Personality and Music. Moogle's innocence, and that of his entire mafia depend on what nights Sith was inducted. The assumption has been that Sith was inducted on night 1 by the Cult of Personality, and on night 2 by the Cult of Music. But this doesn't fit with the facts.

If Sith was induced by Personality night 1, he would have had the entire day in which to tell the Politician his role, and who belonged to his Mafia. It's not reasonable to believe that he didn't tell, because both Sith and Doppler12 were active day 2. The first thing Doppler12 would have done upon inducting Sith would be to find out everything he knows. But the evidence indicates that Doppler12 did not know the other members of the Condatino family. If he had he would have inducted them.

This is where I had to think like a cult leader. In choosing his victims, the CL tries to find the people with either the most influence on the other players, or the most useful roles. Instead of having to guess what roles his potential victims had, Doppler12 had four people with roles he now knew. I don't see how he could have passed up the opportunity to acquire a BG, a role blocker, etc. The Don would have been a natural target as well. Doppler12 would not have had to waste inductions on people who may not have had any useful abilities. The best course of action upon inducting a mafiate is to induct the entire mafia.

But Doppler12 didn't do that. There is no evidence that he inducted any other Condatino. I can only see two possible reasons for that. Either he inducted Sith on night 2, and so didn't have time to get information from him, or Sith lied to Doppler12. And with Fenris's rule about having to cooperate when you've been inducted, there's only one reason Sith would have had for lying to his Cult Leader.

He was, after night 1, loyal to the Cult of Music. I don't know what criteria Fenris used to determine which cult got him, but he allegiance with to the Cult of Music. And with that, the Band Leader found out all the members of the Condatino family. And again, with the knowledge, I don't see how he could pass up the opportunity to induct the entire family.

So the way I see it, the only way the Condatino family could be innocent is if Sithdarth was inducted by both cults on night 2, when he also died. I don't see that as plausible.

Sithdarth had the ability to convince the majority of people in the game to vote for whoever he wanted them to, based upon no evidence at all, simply an arbitrary formula. That ability would have been very useful to a cult leader, and is why I believe Sith was inducted into both cults on night 1. With the game just beginning, the Cult Leaders would have had no idea what roles each player had. So they would have been looking instead for the most influential players to induct. Sith was far and away the most influential player on day one, with his Maths (tm). By day too, if I'm reading the thread correctly, his influence had waned significantly, and there was a lot of suspicion directed his way. I don't think Sith would have been nearly as attractive a target on Night 2 as he was on Night 1. Night 1 he would have been irresistible to a Cult Leader.

So merely from examining Sithdarth's inductions and death, I can only reasonably conclude that the Condatino's are culted. But to go from that to Moogle's guilt as CL required looking at his actions, and making some hypothesis about he motivations:

Moogle first claimed to be the Condatino BG when he started getting accusations about being the cult leader. I think it was then that he came up with an incredibly clever plan to deflect the accusations. It was brilliant really. He didn't even claim to be innocent. He admitted guilt to being a mafiate, and then convinced the town to wait to lynch him until after the CL was killed. It meant the town trusted him to work on their side, all the while congratulating themselves for being clever enough to know that the sneaky mafiate would betray them the moment the CL was dead, so they'd be sure to kill him then. I fell into this trap for a while as well.

Of course, doing this ensured that the town would never catch the CL, and that Moogle would never be lynched. And everything he said from then on in could be trusted, because what Cult Leader would induct a known mafiate?

Moogle could only pull this claim off if the real Condatino family didn't counter claim him. Which he could ensure, because he had them all under his control. But he went one better. Instead of having the family keep quiet, and thus leaving open the possibility that the real Condatino's just didn't care that he claimed to be them, Moogle had two of his minions confirm his role claim.

But I don't buy it. I could see an "innocent" Moogle claiming mafia to save his life for a time, but why the other two? They were never under nearly the danger of a lynch Moogle was. Why did they claim that had given up any chance of winning? That never sat right with me, why would a mafia with three members remaining just give up? And once they gave up, why would they try so hard to kill the cult leader? To me, a loss is a loss, no matter who it's from. Even if they hate the cult, I don't understand why they would put so much effort into securing another team's victory.

And even with Moogle outed, chance are he would have remained alive long enough to help kill the cult leader and give his two remaining family members a shot at victory. I tried for the longest time to figure out how a mafia could find a way to win when the entire town knew who they were. I couldn't believe they just gave up, so I tried to figure out their strategy. Nothing I came up with made any kind of sense.

No, I see no reason why the entire Condatino family would have role claimed except under orders to back up Moogle's claim.

And then the plan got even more brilliant. Moogle somehow conned the entire town into role claiming. Giving him the pick of the best roles to add to his army of minions. With the town's trust in him secured, he could pick up a spare PO, or role blocker, or BG and clinch the victory. I really am impressed.


I know there's not a whole lot of concrete evidence in here, but I think the circumstantial evidence is weighty and damning enough to warrant lynching Moogle today. If I'm wrong, I'm ready to face the personal consequences.

But I'm not wrong.