My Little Pony: Friendship is Mafia

[Aldurin]

Wait, I don't think Trixie is the cult leader. Given the flavor text I would assume that our three disappearances are people that were culted, and it's indicated that the one zebra character from the show is the flavor role for the cult leader.

Although it is weird that those specific flavor roles disappeared at the same time if they were really culted.

[Geminex]

Aldurin, why that?

I thought this made it pretty clear:

"Snails!" the shortest pony cried, "Stop wasting time! We need to go find Rainbow Dash and bring her to Trixie!"

The ponies in question would have been 'brought before Trixie and inducted into her personality cult. The cult tried to induct rainbow dash, but I'm guessing her ability is loyalty, so that failed. And then the cult leader (Trixie) got mafia'd, and Snails died as well. That's kinda obvious, I thought.

Edit:
Again, the questions are, is there a SK in form of the cocatrice, what did nikose know and why'd smarty of all people get mafia'd?

Edit2:
I certainly don't think RD is a vigilante. We don't see her take out any cultists. Or anyone else for that matter.

[Solid Snake]

How the hell did I as town survive N1
I'm actually almost insulted that this means Mafia thought Smarty was a bigger threat than me
(I mean they were right, insofar as he was Cult, but still)

[Nikose Tyris]

@Gem: I'm very old hat at mafia and I'm good at guessing roles. I was just teasing around in my first post and I called out Smarty because he was playing seriously- which, it's SMARTY, and I couldn't see him doing that if he was generic role #14.

@Snake: because at worst you are the Serial Killer, because that is one accusation I have not seen you make at all, all game long. And the SK doesn't strike me as a particularly large threat in early-game compared to the mafia as a whole, who usually have a variety of powers, especially in a game about MAGICALFRIENDSHIP. And at best you are town with some sort of mild power role, probably immune to night kills.

So you know, mostly going to ignore you until the mafia is down, since SK might as well be town until we kill him too.

************************

Am still thinking accusatory throughts at Sifright/Geminex/ a little bit Karesh? I'm actually inclined to believe Karesh's roleclaim. I'm not sure where to go from here but I figured I'd weigh in.

Just gonna open the day with that.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Wow, I am even more confused now then when we had no information at all. I'm gona break this down so that I can understand it;

SMB appears to have been cult leader, and was presumably targeted by the mafia. Trixe has the perfect personally for the cult leader, so that makes sense, and the mafia would most likely target the more vocal players, so as to quickly remove them from the game before they pose a threat. Really this seems pretty clear cut to me.

P-Sleazy is taken out by a cockatrice. 2 possibilities I see; either the cockatrice is a SK, or taking out SMB took down the whole cult and the cock is just flavour text. I can definately see a cockatrice being an SK, but I can't see why the SK would target P-Sleazy. Like the mafia, the SK would surely want to take out more vocal players first and leave inactives until later, for easy pickings. This lends credance to all the cult being destroyed with SMBs death.

Bob. We didn't actually see what took down Bob, he was last seen tidying up his house after Rainbow Dash attacks. Again, 2 possibilities; either SMBs death also ended Bob (likely, considering this is now the 3rd cult member to go in a single night), or Rainbow Dash did a lot of damage to his house and the initial attack was what took him out of the game, which lends credance to RD being a vigilante.

Of course, the idea that the entire cult could be taken down in 1 night by 3 seperate attacks (mafia kill, SK kill, vigilante kill) is extremely unlikely, but then, if the mafia took down SMB which in turn took down the other 2, then it also means there are no other power roles that can night kill, otherwise they would have used them. I can't honestly say how often vigilantes and SKs are used in games, but if either of them is pretty common then why are there no other kills if the mafia alone is responsible for these 3? Unless those roles got handed out to the inactives, which is possible I suppose.

And then of course there's this;

Originally Posted by Fenris

Any self-aligned players win when they are the last pony standing.

Which would seem to indicate that there is some sort of self aligned player such as an SK. Though it could just be Fen trying to misdirect us.

So, honestly, I have no idea. Either there is an SK and a vig and together with the mafia they somehow took down the whole cult in 1 night, or the mafia took down the cult in 1 night and there's no SK or vig in the game at all. I'm kinda favouring the latter right now, and hopeing it's true because otherwise at this rate we're gona be burning through players at an alarming rate.

[Nikose Tyris]

SMB, Trixie, Cult Leader, got Mafia'd; P-Sleazy, Snips, Cult recruit, got SK'd by the Cockatrice; And Bob Dole, Snails, Cult Recruit, got... Dash'd by Dash?

But Rainbow Dash's post feels more like a Roleblocker than a Vig- Even though the end of the post clearly states that Snails is 'missing'.

I'm gonna assume like everyone else that Dash is the Vig but, feels kinda weird in the flavor text.

[Verifiedz]

then whos rainbow dash.

[Nikose Tyris]

From the flavor text? some sort of PO/Jail role, maybe. Seems ridiculously powerful, which is why I'm thinking it's just a Vig hit with quirks.

[Fenris]

I derped, and forgot that

Revolving Ocelot is replacing Ramary.

[Revising Ocelot]

My take on the situation:

Unfortunately, we are unable to pinpoint exactly which pony the Nightmare is residing in this time, but we are positive that with your help, we will be able to send it back to the moon, and permanently.

This implies an actual lynch or death equates to being sent to the moon. The list of people out so far?

On The Moon
11. Mr. Bookworm, Sweetie Belle, Cutie Mark Crusader - (GM Moon'd Day 1)

In The Forest
8. Smarty McB

Turned to Stone
2. P-Sleazy

Cleaning House
19. Bob Dole

Only one of those is moon'd. I'm getting the implication the others are not dead and can return at some point? Bob Dole's cleaning house, and unless Rainbow Dash has made an titanic mess he could possibly return in a day or two without intervention. P-Sleazy may require a special role to unpetrify him. As for Smarty, I don't know. The mare may be indoctrinating him into the cult.

Anyway, can't just dismiss the cult as entirely dead for now.