My Little Pony: Friendship is Mafia

[Sifright]

Ok, lets think this through guys Alds definately town, I'm stating my self and Karesh to be TOWN. If the PO has proof that either my self or Karesh and two other townies are TOWN I think it might an idea for him to shout that information out that would give a 6 man voting block bringing us to 40% of the votes and players from there If the mafia have 5 players and an SK thats 40%. which leaves 20% of the players unverified. That leads to us being able to have a 2-1 chance of lynching a mafia player and the vig has an even better time of it later on presuming he isn't one of the ones identifyed by the PO


PO if you can fulfill that condition of confirming my self and two other townies please do it. Nikose is claiming 'wrong PO'

[rpgdemon]

Originally Posted by Sifright

How does flagging a false townie via PO help scum explain that, bareing in mind that the PO will reveal his information at some point or he is completely and utterly frigging useless, tbh I'd go with today being the day to do it because the next day there is a high chance he will be dead.

The main reason that someone being falsely flagged as a townie is bad, as opposed to a townie being falsely flagged as a mafiate, is that the test is to see if you can trust the person, and the information that they gave. If the test can let a mafiate fall under a narrow false positive townie, then it's failed at it's job, since it's no longer reliable.

If a test can only falsely identify someone as scum, then it's not great to rely on, because killing a townie sucks, but it's a sound defense for the person, if they get identified as a town player based on it. It's also a solution that promotes action on the town's part. If the town has nothing else to go on, they can still use the shakey results of this type of test to go off of. In the case of a fake townie by test results, the town doesn't have an action that might make sense out of that test, except sit around and do what we're doing now.

In the case of the test that you proposed, if the PO has to come out and say that you're scum, there's a lot that can go wrong with the test, and continued silence means that we have to continue to trust you. If the PO was nightkilled, we'll never get an answer, and if the PO didn't check you yet (to not get watched), we'll also not have an answer any time soon.

That's why I wanted to do the test the other way. It meant that the PO had his own discretionary decision what he wanted to do, if he wanted to try to save you or not if you were town. But if something went wrong with the test, it wouldn't give you a safe alibi to hide behind, if you were scum. It wouldn't be a test that we'd necessarily jump on as solid proof if you were scum, but it could possibly give us solid proof if you were a townie, if the PO wanted to offer that, and it wouldn't give an ambivalent result of waiting with baited breath to see if proof comes against you.

[Sifright]

Originally Posted by Sifright

Ok, lets think this through guys Alds definately town, I'm stating my self and Karesh to be TOWN. If the PO has proof that either my self or Karesh and two other townies are TOWN I think it might an idea for him to shout that information out that would give a 6 man voting block bringing us to 40% of the votes and players from there If the mafia have 5 players and an SK thats 40%. which leaves 20% of the players unverified. That leads to us being able to have a 2-1 chance of lynching a mafia player and the vig has an even better time of it later on presuming he isn't one of the ones identifyed by the PO


PO if you can fulfill that condition of confirming my self and two other townies please do it. Nikose is claiming 'wrong PO'

Also for the love of fucking god if you do this DONT tell people that they have power roles just go X player name - TOWN

[Revising Ocelot]

Going to sleep, leaving these notes:

I've already got Nikose on FoS, and for the same reason he's still guilty of now: he's acting suspiciously far too obviously. Add the flawed PO claim to that, too. I don't think a Mafia would really want to draw that much attention to himself, so I'm suspecting Jester, and thus a Vigilante kill rather than a lynch. If someone has a better role to peg him as, by all means say so. Not too experienced with such matters having only played half a game (Wiki crawling for great justice).


FoS: rpgdemon. The current spat with Sifright. I'm pretty convinced that Sif (and by extension Karesh) are townies due to my reasons yesterday, and Sif gets flustered easily as shown by the suicide phase and the Homestuck game. You have good points, however.


FoS: greed. Extreme lurking poster. It's worse than Fawful, because Fawful was a one post account wonder while greed is normally far more prolific than what he's displayed in the thread. He's been online lots, too. Typical Mafia tactic is to let people fight amongst themselves while they hang back, I recall from last game. I'm surprised more people aren't paying attention to this. Snake was town and put forward a good case for voting inactives , and this is all kinds of suspicious. Time for a callout?

[Aldurin]

Oh right, my gut instinct was for greed, but logic brought me to bring the guillotine on Geminex. Based entirely on a post search for greed.

FoS: greed

[Bard The 5th LW]

It'd be dumb to rely on the PO to come out and say YEAH THIS GUY'S TOWN or to even imply that they'd do that. The PO is a double sided sword, they know the truth, but it is a risk to say that they do. Chances are that the PO has already posted what they know, but had to mask it as an opinion so as to not make a target of themselves. Thus, for the PO to reveal themself in any way might certainly verify you as town or verify someoen else as scum, it would also be like putting a "KILL ME" sign on their forehead.

[Sifright]

I'm massively aware of this fact, my idea is predicated on him being able to create a cohesive voting block only if he can't do that obviously he shouldn't reveal anything.

[Sifright]

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

So, people who haven't posted, why have you not posted? There are a fair number of you, from my rough remembering things.

Before lynching someone who is giving information to us, even if it's an attempt to be misleading, why aren't we taking out people who aren't really interested in the game (And thus won't be too torn up over being the first lynch), and aren't giving us ANYTHING to work on? They're not even helping voting swing in our favor, they're just filling space. The only downside to falsely taking one of them out is that we miss a kill on scum.

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

Killing inactives isn't all positives, it's just low negatives. There's a difference.

It doesn't gives us progress, it just keeps us from killing someone who would be good for the town to have around. And we burn a lynch.

Justification of killing inactives.

Edit: Note Smb was in favour of this tactic and he was scum

[rpgdemon]

If Nikose is the PO, we're kind of boned, since he was getting bad results. An inaccurate PO is literally the same as no PO at all, except maybe even worse since you think you know some scum and they're wrong. But if we have an inaccurate PO, it means that we're just as well off tossing a coin to decide if someone's scum or not. Unless there's like a 90% chance of accuracy, and he hit the 10% chance of inaccuracy, in which case it's a better lead than we have, but only on accusations of scummishness, since false town labels are the enemy.

Granted, this is all moot, since we have no idea if Nik is the PO, and if he is, what the odds are of him getting it wrong would be.

Statistically though, we can increase our odds of random guessing hitting a scum, in a day or two. Pick someone right now, at complete random. Don't vote for them, just pick them. If we lose town players today/tonight, switch your pick to anyone else, at complete random again. If we lose scum players tonight, or the ratio of scum to town doesn't increase, keep your pick the same as it was before.

The way it works is, right now we have around a 5-6/14 chance of hitting scum. But if we lose 3 townies, we'll have a 5-6/11 chance of hitting scum tomorrow. It means that switching your vote will give you better odds, as your new vote has better odds than your previous one.

To show an extreme example, if you have 50 boxes, and one of them has a million dollars in it, you have a 1/50 chance of picking the right box when you start. If they get rid of 48 of the boxes after you pick, you now have one box which has a 1/50 chance of having a million dollars, and one box that has a 1/2 chance of having a million dollars.

It's only good for complete random guessing though, so if we have leads tomorrow, we should follow them. But if we can get a random number generator that will fairly generate a number, that can be verified to everyone, we ought to use that to make a guess today, so that we can use that guess tomorrow and generate another random number then.


Does anyone know of a die roller, or a random number generator that would work for this? It has to show a complete log of all numbers rolled, so that no one can tamper with it, and everyone can independently verify the number that we rolled.

The only reason making a pick now will increase our odds tomorrow is that if we don't count the pick we make today in the potentials tomorrow, we have slightly increased odds, I believe. There's about a 1/3 chance that we'll have a safe mafiate tomorrow, but there's a 2/3 chance that we'll have a safe town player tomorrow.

[Bard The 5th LW]

I'd say that the PO would be less inclined to act right now because of you asking for his assistance. Now poeple are going to expecting him to come on out and help out, even if he doesn't claim PO. There aren't that many of us. And the scum know who they are, so it'd be easy for them to decipher who the PO is.

FOS: Sif for seemingly attempting to draw out the PO

Anyways, can you get the quote where Smarty uses similar tactics? As said before, attributing quotes to other peopel is a common scum tactic.