Nothing is as it Seems Mafia: The Game - Page 12

Sithdarth · 12-11-2007, 08:32 AM

Psst its Bayesian as in Bayes theorem and the Monty Hall Paradox.

Also that last number on the list is wrong cause I messed up when I put it into my calculator. 27 should have been back to the roughly 43% chance. The point of that was to show that choosing 3 people at random was the most efficent way of finding exactly one mafiate. Any more than that and it starts to become more likely that you've got two or more. Thus I stuck with only the first three. Though it really could be any three. Seriously give me three random numbers from 1-50 yourself and I'll use those people instead.

russianreversal · 12-11-2007, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sithdarth

Math that I don't really feel like going through because I get the gist of what he's saying

Checks out to me.
UNVOTE: BHS
VOTE: ODWTF You can't argue with math, it's running your computer. And your life.

Sithdarth · 12-11-2007, 09:28 AM

Actually at this point I think we've got enough info to make a decision without the math. Namely that bandwagon that just almost happened and people's reactions too it should be enough to weed out a mafiate. I'm not entirely sure who to vote for yet but ODWTF's reactions thus far have been far less suspicious than most of the people that have posted.

I myself am leaning toward DBS or maybe Bookworm.

Bailey · 12-11-2007, 09:41 AM

Sithdarth? Error?

Does not follow.

But... I suppose I can accept that it happened. After all, I'm already accepting that God made poison ivy.

With this in mind,
unvote: Cephrir (who really did nothing wrong, as far as I can tell)
vote: Death By Stabbing (who seems way too eager to kill somebody, anybody, as fast as we can)

Ugainius · 12-11-2007, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Masked Jedi

Considering this game is going to last forever anyway, does anyone else think that this is a good time to reform the FFF?

FFF ASSEMBLE!!!!!!!

Ape Boy · 12-11-2007, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sithdarth

Namely that bandwagon that just almost happened and people's reactions too it should be enough to weed out a mafiate.

The reason you've drawn suspicion is because of your proposed plan. The entire thing works on the premise that the person selecting the players to be culled, in this case you, isn't Mafia.

If you were Mafia, then the only thing this would accomplish is you routing out your competition while setting up your group with a protective bubble from lynches, because you'd damn sure never have one of your own members in the group of three.

At least that's what makes me suspicious about you. Not that I'm not willing to try it, but you can see how this plan fucks us over the long-term if you're scum.

deathpigeon · 12-11-2007, 12:32 PM

Vote: Sithdarth he hurt my hed

***Fenris*** · 12-11-2007, 12:52 PM

Hey I've been sick and the power went out today so if anybody would like to do a vote count for me that'd be super keen.

Demetrius · 12-11-2007, 01:00 PM

Yeah! FFF GO!

...

Right after I manage to convince my computer that it does not in fact have PCI-e and my video card is not located in a PCI-e slot...

*HATE*

Moogle0119 · 12-11-2007, 01:09 PM

I'll throw a major FoS: Sithdarth for all that mumbo jumbo (yes this is technical talk don't bother correcting it). I'd be tempted to vote for him but I'm still hearing lots of wild and crazy ~~rumors~~ truths about BHS with farm animals and thus my vote stays with him.

12-11-2007, 12:52 PM	#118
*Fenris* Administrator Join Date: May 2005 Location: East Coast Posts: 6,806	Hey I've been sick and the power went out today so if anybody would like to do a vote count for me that'd be super keen. __________________ "FENRIS IS AN ASSHOLE" - shiney

12-11-2007, 01:00 PM	#119
Demetrius In need of a vacation Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Peoples Republic of Vermont Posts: 3,236	Yeah! FFF GO! ... Right after I manage to convince my computer that it does not in fact have PCI-e and my video card is not located in a PCI-e slot... HATE __________________ DFM, Demon seed of Hell who fuels its incredible power by butchering little girls and feeding on their innocence. Demetrius, Dark clown of the netherworld, a being of incalculable debauchery and a soulless, faceless evil as old as time itself. Zilla, The chick. ~DFM Wii bishie bishie kawaii baka! ~ Fifthfiend

12-11-2007, 01:09 PM	#120
Moogle0119 The REAL Lord of the Dance Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Narshe Caves Posts: 397	I'll throw a major FoS: Sithdarth for all that mumbo jumbo (yes this is technical talk don't bother correcting it). I'd be tempted to vote for him but I'm still hearing lots of wild and crazy ~~rumors~~ truths about BHS with farm animals and thus my vote stays with him. __________________ One day the tides will turn One day the fields will burn One day the seas will churn The fury of our maker's hand What will you do?

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12-11-2007, 08:32 AM	#111
Sithdarth Friendly Neighborhood Quantum Hobo Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Outside the M-brane look'n in Posts: 5,403	Psst its Bayesian as in Bayes theorem and the Monty Hall Paradox. Also that last number on the list is wrong cause I messed up when I put it into my calculator. 27 should have been back to the roughly 43% chance. The point of that was to show that choosing 3 people at random was the most efficent way of finding exactly one mafiate. Any more than that and it starts to become more likely that you've got two or more. Thus I stuck with only the first three. Though it really could be any three. Seriously give me three random numbers from 1-50 yourself and I'll use those people instead.

12-11-2007, 09:28 AM	#113
Sithdarth Friendly Neighborhood Quantum Hobo Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Outside the M-brane look'n in Posts: 5,403	Actually at this point I think we've got enough info to make a decision without the math. Namely that bandwagon that just almost happened and people's reactions too it should be enough to weed out a mafiate. I'm not entirely sure who to vote for yet but ODWTF's reactions thus far have been far less suspicious than most of the people that have posted. I myself am leaning toward DBS or maybe Bookworm.