Oscar 2013 Nominees

[BloodyMage]

I can see Zero Dark Thirty picking up most of the awards, with Silver Linings Playbook picking up any extra, and maybe Django and The Master picking up one here and there. Tarantino is going the direction of Kubrick and Hitchcock of being quite overlooked at the Oscars (Inglourious Basterds was nominated for eight but only won best supporting actor, which was the same year Kathryn Bigelow won a bunch of awards with Hurt Locker.)

It's not that I think Silver Linings Playbooks is good but it has that kind of feel good, emotional, meaningful story without necessarily having any real depth that seems to do fairly well at the Oscars.

Mostly, I just feel indifferent to the Oscars this year.

[Aerozord]

Originally Posted by BloodyMage

It's not that I think Silver Linings Playbooks is good but it has that kind of feel good, emotional, meaningful story without necessarily having any real depth that seems to do fairly well at the Oscars.

which is why I refuse to accept the Oscars as a legitimate recognition of a films artistic merit. They have their place because they still push for diversity, but they are hardly an unbiased judgement of the industry. Hell they are bias to the point one can make a film tailor made with the intent to win awards.

[Lumenskir]

I can see Zero Dark Thirty picking up most of the awards, with Silver Linings Playbook picking up any extra, and maybe Django and The Master picking up one here and there.

...Based on what they were actually nominated for, I don't really think this holds up. I mean, like, it'll be hard for ZDT to get 'most' of the awards when it's only nominated in tech stuff (which, who cares), Screenplay (which it probably won't win due to controversy or whatever), Actress (which is possible but not anything close to a lock), and Best Picture (see: Screenplay).

but they are hardly an unbiased judgement of the industry

Hmm, well, the nomination process is basically a bunch of members of the industry saying what they feel should be awarded, and then the voting is done by a bunch more members of the industry saying which of those things nominated they liked the best, so I'd say it's pretty systemically set up to be as openly un-unbiased towards the industry as possible.

Maybe you'd be happier with one of the many awards given out by critic's groups? Or, I dunno, get over the insistence that any award could possibly equate to objective evaluation* and just approach the Oscars as what they are, a fun diversion.

*"Something something, my opinion is objectively right, something something." /Smartypost

[Bells]

everybody is sour because the MTV Movie awards is the only Movie Award show to properly convey the fact that Jim Carrey did a lot of really awesome movies.

[Krylo]

Originally Posted by Lumenskir

approach the Oscars as what they are, a fun diversion.

But to be a fun diversion, they'd have to be fun!

[Lumenskir]

But to be a fun diversion, they'd have to be fun!

"When one has tired of trying to divine how a bunch of old conservative white guys will vote on movies released in a given year in the face of arcane and mostly unseen campaigning and conflicting narratives driven by major corporate conglomerates, one has tired of life."

[Aerozord]

Originally Posted by Lumenskir

Hmm, well, the nomination process is basically a bunch of members of the industry saying what they feel should be awarded, and then the voting is done by a bunch more members of the industry saying which of those things nominated they liked the best, so I'd say it's pretty systemically set up to be as openly un-unbiased towards the industry as possible.

"in the industry" can mean alot. These aren't directors and screenwriters voting on it, they are primarily investors and businessmen or writers and directors that haven't actively made a film in decades. Almost entirely white males with a median age of like 60.

The oscars aren't decided based on innovation and well crafted narrative they are decided on what appeals to a conservative audience thats about 20 years out of touch with the medium.

[PCD]

This is almost pointless to bring up, since the Animated category is by far the one that the academy gives the least shits about, but I know plenty of people who are pretty cheesed off about Rise of the Guardians not getting nominated while Frankenweenie and Pirates! did. Not that I'd expect any of those three to win, but I can't help but notice that Rise is essentially the first major animated film with an African American director. Just saying.

[Azisien]

Originally Posted by Aerozord

"in the industry" can mean alot. These aren't directors and screenwriters voting on it, they are primarily investors and businessmen or writers and directors that haven't actively made a film in decades. Almost entirely white males with a median age of like 60.

The oscars aren't decided based on innovation and well crafted narrative they are decided on what appeals to a conservative audience thats about 20 years out of touch with the medium.

Indeed, 94% white, 77% male, and a mean age of 62.

Doubt the demographic changed drastically in one year either.

[Solid Snake]

I'm guessing Lincoln wins best picture. I actually want Lincoln to win best picture because I enjoy a thriller where the action is in tense political machinations instead of stereotypical violence. But the reason I want Lincoln to win probably doesn't mesh well with why it will actually win: Because the predominantly white, male, elderly Oscar voting demographic will find identifying with a white, male, Messianic savior of the black race attractive.

...And because Lincoln wasn't made by Tarantino, it's not a violent film with a black protagonist (the fact that Tarantino's still racist enough to make Django subservient to a white liberator who calls the shots is something true progressives might note and criticize, but Oscar voters probably won't even catch the nuance that'd likely lead them to support the film.)
And it's not a film that glorifies torture, and it's not a comedy, and it's not brazen Oscar bait that's been canned by some reviewers like Les Mis was.

...Mind you, some of those reasons are very good reasons to dislike those other films. If anything my impression of the Oscar electorate is that they're immensely privileged and grotesquely rich but also at least toying with the fanciful notion that they're 'progressive', which in practice leads to some good results (canning Zero Dark Thirty) but also some bad ones (generally preferring narratives that cast whites as heroes, a smug derision of comedies and animated features, etc.)

This year the net result's going to happily coincide with the movie I liked most this year, but they'll make that decision for all kinds of wrong reasons.

I'll give an outside shot to Argo for Best Picture because, ironically, Affleck 'getting screwed' out of the Best Director nod is now giving him all kinds of positive publicity in Hollywood. Beyond that, maybe Life of Pi? I haven't watched it but based on the trailers it seems just unconventional, artistic, and inoffensive enough.

Denzel Washington's my favorite for Best Actor, but only because DDL has won Oscars recently and Washington single-handedly carried Flight. If DDL had never won an Oscar before and if he wasn't buttressed by a phenomenal supporting cast, I'd consider him a heavy favorite.

I don't expect Chastain or Lawrence to win Best Actress. The Academy often prides itself in being more unconventional when there isn't a heavy favorite and I don't see Zero Dark Thirty getting sufficient positive press.

ParaNorman *should* win best Animated, but it probably won't. I don't think Brave wins this year either, though. That's a case of Pixar's lofty reputation working against it. If Dreamworks or Disney makes Brave without the Pixar label attached, it would have a better shot.

Tommy Lee Jones should win Best Supporting Actor for a phenomenal job playing an ace abolitionist but I'm not sure if his reputation in Hollywood will support his chances.
Anne Hathaway runs away with Best Supporting Actress. No offense to Anne, who does have a phenomenal singing voice and great stage presence, but I'd prefer to see Sally Field win that one.

Before he was snubbed I actually thought Affleck had a decent shot of winning Best Director outright. Now I'm not so sure.