Basic Roles Mafia

[Sheb]

Chainsaw, eh? Always knew I'd go out kinda messily.

Good luck guys.

[Fifthfiend]

Got you first, Nikose!

I actually kinda figured I was gonna get whacked.

PS: B_Real is fuckin' up to something!

All right, that's me out.

[Truce]

Originally Posted by B_real_shadows

Of the 7 people left, 3 voted for Sheb (Me, DBS, and LHN), 3 voted for Nikose (Nique, Ogianres, and Ecurt) and one didn't vote at all (Major Blood). Sheb died last night and I'm the one who started it so that puts me in the spotlight for it. And it is clear that the vigilante killed Sheb, so that leads me to beleive that the vigilante is not among the 3 who voted for Sheb and that atleast one of the three who did vote sheb IS mafia.

Now, myself discluded, I'm going to put my bets on it being LHN because he was originally voting for Nikose and then after 4 posts (one of which was his own when he kept going on Nikose about how he's the most scummy) he switches to voting for Sheb, who incidentally didn't post in that period of 4 posts.

VOTE: LHN

Hmm...

I agree with him that it is clear that the vigilante killed Sheb. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that the vigilante can't be someone of that group. I'm even less suspicious that it's LHN precisely because of the fact that it turns out that there is indeed a vigilante, and has only been active for that night.

If you couldn't guess what I'm thinking, then I'll say it plainly: LHN is the vigilante. My guess is that The Lost Prophet or whoever he replaced didn't turn in his night role the first night. Since LHN showed up, the vigilante role got turned in this time. As for flipping back and forth between votes - I'd say that the fact he joined didn't necessarily mean he read all the posts when he posted at the time.

Granted, he didn't explain himself well, but neither did Mr. Bookworm, now did we?

Why am I revealing this? Because, frankly, I don't think a vigilante's exactly healthy for our game, and I'd rather argue and debate over who is scummy or not than leave it to one person's hands, who may not be seeing the whole picture.

So, if I don't think LHN is the vigilante, then who should I believe it is?

Well, my suspects are, in order:

B_Real_Shadows
DBS
Nique
and Major Blood

B_Real_Shadows' conclusions don't seem to have much support right now. He too quickly discounts certain possibilites - such as the vigilante voting for Sheb, and then the vigilante thinking that Sheb really was still scummy enough to be offed.

He pretty much completely ignored Nikose in the second day as well, aside from one little friendly exchange. Now, I can understand not voting for Nikose, but not even acknowledging him seems to be something we should be worried about.

DBS has very short post and doesn't seem to add much with each post. Mostly, it seems random, and he was also in a rush to end the day - something Nikose himself was anxious about. With this latest post, he just comes out and agrees with B_Real, not going over the points himself. Even if B_Real isn't mafia himself, DBS seems to be just going with the flow.

Nique seems to be suspicious of a lot of people, bordering on paranoia. Being suspicious of a forum member's name is...well, a little bit too much. Given that he doesn't seem to add much to the conversation himself, and didn't even provide a reason in his latest post on why he's FOSing those people, he's either holding back, or has nothing to say himself.

Finally, Major Blood. He didn't even vote at all, ignored Nikose, and hasn't had too many posts; for that sake, he's scummy as well.

Vote: B_Real

And...

FOS: DBS
Nique
Major Blood

[Major Blood]

Originally Posted by Ecurt

Finally, Major Blood. He didn't even vote at all, ignored Nikose, and hasn't had too many posts; for that sake, he's scummy as well.

To be fair, i didn't ignore Nikose. I just thought there wasn't enough GOOD evidence to warrant a voting for him(or anyone else really). That's also why i didn't vote.

[Nique]

Being suspicious of a forum member's name is...well, a little bit too much.

Jokes! Jokes all!

I'm just getting a feeling about B_real. If he isn't mafia, he sure hasn't seemed to come under any heat either townie or mafia initiated.

I knew Nikose was up to something! I knew it!

[P-Sleazy]

You remember how Nikose said he wouldn't acknowledge me because I survived night 1? Yea, the feeling was mutual. Also, Like I said earlier, I was letting you guys do your thing, I was doing mine. Having more than one suspect in a day, and then having one proved guilty and the other innocent, in the same night mind you, gives us a MUCH better view as to why people vote for who they did.

Originally Posted by Ecurt

If you couldn't guess what I'm thinking, then I'll say it plainly: LHN is the vigilante.

Well then, Good job trying to save the Vig. The point of this game is to NOT reveal who you think are the town aligned players. This just narrows down people the mafia needs to hit severly. You just gave them (the mafia) who to hit for the Vigilante, and who to play nice to IF he is the vigilante, whose protected by the BG, making it harder for him to discern who the Mafia are. That leaves us, the town, with 5 suspects for who everyone else is (we know ourselves and the Vig). It leaves the mafia with 4 since they know each other and who the Vig is (assuming LHN is the vig, which he probably isn't). Who does this benefit? The mafia.

Now the way I narrowed down suspects, I just said the Vig is not among a certain 3, but a mafiate is. Now although that helps the mafia in guess work for the 4 other people, they'd still need to worry about the BG who could be within any of the 7 and will now be protecting LHN (who may or may not be the vig). The way you did it, leaves the rest of the town open to fire from the mafia and Vig because the BG will be tied up protecting LHN whom you think is the Vig. meaning the odds of the BG being killed are quite good. 1/3 for the Mafia, and 1/5 for the vig, and one or the other need to happen so thats a 7/15ths chance that the BG will die tonight assuming a townie is lynched today.

Originally Posted by Ecurt

Because, frankly, I don't think a vigilante's exactly healthy for our game

Now then, if the vigilante isn't healthy for our game, then we shouldn't necessarily want him dead. NOR should we reveal who we think is the vigilante. Because he is town aligned, he is still helping the town keep our status quo over the mafia. All you had to do was ask that he stop killing people faster unless we were absolutely certain that this person was mafia while lynching another mafiate.

And thats really it for my defense on what Ecurt says.

FOS: ECURT

For blantly pointing out who he thinks is a town aligned role.

[Truce]

Originally Posted by B_real_shadows

You remember how Nikose said he wouldn't acknowledge me because I survived night 1? Yea, the feeling was mutual. Also, Like I said earlier, I was letting you guys do your thing, I was doing mine. Having more than one suspect in a day, and then having one proved guilty and the other innocent, in the same night mind you, gives us a MUCH better view as to why people vote for who they did.

Well then, Good job trying to save the Vig. The point of this game is to NOT reveal who you think are the town aligned players. This just narrows down people the mafia needs to hit severly. You just gave them (the mafia) who to hit for the Vigilante, and who to play nice to IF he is the vigilante, whose protected by the BG, making it harder for him to discern who the Mafia are. That leaves us, the town, with 5 suspects for who everyone else is (we know ourselves and the Vig). It leaves the mafia with 4 since they know each other and who the Vig is (assuming LHN is the vig, which he probably isn't). Who does this benefit? The mafia.

Now the way I narrowed down suspects, I just said the Vig is not among a certain 3, but a mafiate is. Now although that helps the mafia in guess work for the 4 other people, they'd still need to worry about the BG who could be within any of the 7 and will now be protecting LHN (who may or may not be the vig). The way you did it, leaves the rest of the town open to fire from the mafia and Vig because the BG will be tied up protecting LHN whom you think is the Vig. meaning the odds of the BG being killed are quite good. 1/3 for the Mafia, and 1/5 for the vig, and one or the other need to happen so thats a 7/15ths chance that the BG will die tonight assuming a townie is lynched today.

Now then, if the vigilante isn't healthy for our game, then we shouldn't necessarily want him dead. NOR should we reveal who we think is the vigilante. Because he is town aligned, he is still helping the town keep our status quo over the mafia. All you had to do was ask that he stop killing people faster unless we were absolutely certain that this person was mafia while lynching another mafiate.

And thats really it for my defense on what Ecurt says.

FOS: ECURT

For blantly pointing out who he thinks is a town aligned role.

First off, the worth of the vigilante at the moment is just the same as a townie. I frankly don't trust anybody else's judgement, not even my own, to decide who to kill at night - that person could easily make a mistake, sealing a victory for the mafia. Because of that, I don't consider the Vigilante to have any greater worth than anybody else.

Knowing who the vigilante helps us much more than it helps the mafia. We know who not to vote for, something a lot of people tend to undervalue, the BG has an idea of who to protect, and the mafia is forced to take the gamble on whether or not to try to kill the vig. Most importantly, we have an idea of who was trying to kill the vig, and take a closer look at them.

I can understand why B_real_shadows wouldn't want anybody to think LHN is the vigilante though - he just tried to lead a vote against him, and if I'm right then he just blew his cover. If he had succeeded, then he'd be rid of someone who he seems to think is a greater threat to the mafia than a help to the mafia; instead, he's been caught in his own trap.

Now. Let's take a look at last night's mafia hit. I've been mulling over why someone would try to kill fifthfiend. I won't deny his influence on the game, but the mafia wouldn't hit him unless they thought that influence would be a threat. Naturally the ones that hadn't gone with him to vote for their Don would be the most suspect, and wouldn't want to be drawn out by fifth like Nikose was.

Of course, that wouldn't be enough; they'd need to draw attention away from themselves as soon as possible. B_real then tried to lead a vote against LHN, and DBS joined him, if only in an accusation.

By the way, it seemed that as I was posting earlier fifthfiend did post who he turned out to suspect, giving us an idea who one of his killers might have been.

The more I look at it, the more I'm sure that at least B_real is mafia.

[P-Sleazy]

Originally Posted by Ecurt

he just tried to lead a vote against him

I think I'm still leading the vote against him. *Checks* Yep, Still am.

Originally Posted by Ecurt

By the way, it seemed that as I was posting earlier fifthfiend did post who he turned out to suspect, giving us an idea who one of his killers might have been.

Last I checked, dead players aren't allowed to influence the game. So we should be disregarding most of what fifthfiend said that influences the game. Just to be fair y'know.

Also, doesn't it strike you as odd that the other two only jumped on the Sheb vote when the Nikose vote seemed to be losing steam(maybe not votes, but steam none the less)? Cause I sure did.

[Captain Combustible]

Vote count-

LHN- 1 (B_real)
B_real- 1 (Ecurt)

Not Voting- (Ogianres,Nique,MajorBlood,DBS,LHN)

4 To Lynch

[Long-Haired Narcissist]

I'm flattered that you guys think I'm the vig, but I'm not him. I'll hopefully(if I'm not busy again) make a long post later to analyze who I think is mafia and who's not.