My Little Pony: Friendship is Mafia

[IHateMakingNames]

Originally Posted by Sifright

Nikose is obviously continuing his trend of lying which started with misconstruing snakes actions. I would also like to point out Rpgdemon over pushed a lynch of me in an effort to stop a lynch wagon that was forming around Nikose.

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

Originally Posted by Sifright

effort to stop a lynch wagon that was forming around Nikose.