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I wondered if Jesse might actually rat Walt out to Hank at some point and supply him with some hard evidence after he finds out what Walt did and after Hank has already started having suspicions.
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My basic reasoning is that the BB universe clearly has a God/moral balance, where something bad happens to you after you do something bad. This has been applied to basically every character but Walt, not because we're meant to think what he's doing is right, but because he's been externalizing all of his comeuppances on others, primarily Hank and Jesse (but oh so much more on Jesse). His downfall coming from those two would be the most apt.
I also think that Mike probably has to die both for the moral retribution, but mostly because he's the only dampening factor on Walt at this point. Maybe I just like Mike too much, but as long as he's around I can't see things going pear-shaped enough to get to that flash forward within a year.
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The cig thing could totally happen though...But yeah, I can totally see Walt doing that. It would all come together quite nicely.
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My revelation was basically Chekov math: Ricin cig being stored for later use + Skyler smoking in earnest out of spite + Walt pushing her to the limit = Walt needing to kill Skyler in a way that would spite her back to prevent her from acting in response to his abuse.