Nothing is as it Seems Mafia: The Game

Sithdarth · 12-11-2007, 08:32 AM

Psst its Bayesian as in Bayes theorem and the Monty Hall Paradox.

Also that last number on the list is wrong cause I messed up when I put it into my calculator. 27 should have been back to the roughly 43% chance. The point of that was to show that choosing 3 people at random was the most efficent way of finding exactly one mafiate. Any more than that and it starts to become more likely that you've got two or more. Thus I stuck with only the first three. Though it really could be any three. Seriously give me three random numbers from 1-50 yourself and I'll use those people instead.

12-11-2007, 08:32 AM	#11
Sithdarth Friendly Neighborhood Quantum Hobo Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Outside the M-brane look'n in Posts: 5,403	Psst its Bayesian as in Bayes theorem and the Monty Hall Paradox. Also that last number on the list is wrong cause I messed up when I put it into my calculator. 27 should have been back to the roughly 43% chance. The point of that was to show that choosing 3 people at random was the most efficent way of finding exactly one mafiate. Any more than that and it starts to become more likely that you've got two or more. Thus I stuck with only the first three. Though it really could be any three. Seriously give me three random numbers from 1-50 yourself and I'll use those people instead.