Mafia: NPF edition

[Fenris]

Alas, my time in this game must come to an end.

Now join chat8bit mafia, bitches!

[Thundergod Cid]

Roleclaim Time.

I am Shiney the Police Officer, and I think I have enough information to guarantee a town victory. I don't know any of the scum, but I know four innocents who are still alive:

Newb is Mammothtank the mason.

Ecurt is Newb the townie.

Mesden is Garud the townie.

TheSpacePope is Dynamite 220 the mason.

Any of them might have a secret role, but all four showed up as NPF-Aligned when I investigated them.

If those four can confirm my info, then they and myself should be cleared, since the mafia couldn't coordinate something like this with only three left. This will leave us with seven people with unknown roles:

Sk3l3ton
Sithdarth
h4x.m4g3
Neyo the King
grthwllms
Daisuke
MasterOfMagic

If the vigilante claims, then that will leave us with seven known townies and six unknowns from the thirteen remaining. If the mafia kills one of the confirmed townies at night and the town lynches an unknown during the day, we'll almost certainly win (a secret role could theoretically mess us up). The vigilante and myself will also speed the process along, though we'll certainly be the mafia's next two kills.

[h4x.m4g3]

Vote: Neyo The King

If Thundergod is the real PO, then I see no reason not to vote Neyo yet, and well no one else on that list has come up scummy yet.

I must say I believe Thundergod's roleclaim, since he named mason's as opposed to just normal townies. And on the topic of Mason's, if the two confirmed (PO revealed) Masons would reveal all other (if any, I don't remember GARUD giving an exact number) Masons, we could increase the odds of another Mafia lynch even more.

[Mesden]

Your plan has merit and all, TGC, but it's just as easy for a mafiate to Roleclaim Vigilante. Then I'd expect the real vig to roleclaim and we'd be down to 2/5 instead of 3/7, seeing as we couldn't trust to lynch either vig.

To anyone that is actually a vanilla townie, DO NOT ROLECLAIM VIGILANTE. No matter what, it'll only lead to badness. Regular vig, please Roleclaim.

The town has to vote wisely, and honestly, I'm going to Vote Neyo on account of him voting for our BG and for Ogianres, that being his only participation aside from the early on initial posts.

I also get a feeling from him. He just feels like a killing role to me. Either Don or Vig, but it's there. I really don't think he's a normal townie.

[MasterOfMagic]

Originally Posted by Mesden

Your plan has merit and all, TGC, but it's just as easy for a mafiate to Roleclaim Vigilante. Then I'd expect the real vig to roleclaim and we'd be down to 2/5 instead of 3/7, seeing as we couldn't trust to lynch either vig.

If that happens, we just leave both of them alone. The true vig kills the imposter during the night, and the mafia kills either the vig or PO.

How many votes do we need for lynch? I say we give Neyo a chance to respond before piling all of them on, in case he is the vig.

[Truce]

Very nice timing Cid, and yes I am Newb.

[Sithdarth]

Ok one more from the top:

Taking into the account the revealed roles Daisuke, MoM, Neyo, and grth are the only people with another unknown role next to them. Thus making them the most likely mafiates. If you assume Neyo to be Mafiate that leaves Daisuke and MOM as the next highest possibilities. That leaves Grth, myself, Skeleton, Hax, at even odds. Of course if either MOM or Daisuke turn out Mafia then everyone left has basically equal chances.

[Bailey]

I disagree with this plan most heartily, but yes, I am a mason, and there were only three of us to start with.

After Neyo, the two that I find most suspicious are Sithdarth and Daisuke.

I was looking at them even before, but now that Mesden is a confirmed townie, there's very little doubt in my mind about them.

And that weird smoke and mirrors statement about positioning on the list just firms up my beliefs as far as Sithdarth is concerned.

If Garud is using a spreadsheet, then it's highly likely for the roles to be truly randomly assigned, and who is next to whom should have no bearing on roles.

[Sithdarth]

If Garud is using a spreadsheet, then it's highly likely for the roles to be truly randomly assigned, and who is next to whom should have no bearing on roles.

Its not so much who is near you at this point as it is how many unknown spaces are next to each other. Besides I already stated my proof of this in the first post but here it is again:

Originally Posted by me

While the individual odds of any role landing on any spot on the list is even the odds of them all landing right next to each other get slimer and slimer the more that wind up that way. Knowing this those sections of the list that have the most consectutive unknown roles are the most likely place for a mafiate role.

and

Originally Posted by me

Basically this is like say flipping a coin twice and ending up with both sides the same. While each flip is still 50/50 ending up with both heads or both tails is only a 1 in 4 chance. Flip a coin forty times and list the results then group them into pairs and count up how many pairs are both the same and how many different. It shoud come out as being about 50/50. Which means the chances of two consectutive heads or tails is 1/4.

If you don't believe me then do the expirement. Also, it suddenly occures to me that its not a 50/50 split between Evil roles and townies/town roles. So its actually less likely to end up with a whole bunch of mafiates in a row. Not impossible mind you but the odds are against it.

[Daisuke]

Originally Posted by Sithdarth

If you don't believe me then do the expirement.

The only thing is, that's still just coinflips. Riding chances is alright, but we have had interactions with eachother and will continue to interact. That is our best defense. But yes, thanks for the probabilities. It hadn't even occurred to me to try that.