Nothing is as it Seems Mafia: The Game

[Zilla]

[deathpost] I REALLY need to stop reading this damn thread.[/deathpost]

[OctoberRaven]

Hm. We're running out of time and suspects.

I think pressure is a good thing right now.

Vote: Bananarama

[bananarama]

Originally Posted by Moogle0119

Right now bananarama I think you have far less credibility than you try to make yourself sound like you deserve. You have no evidence and no claims to back up and you're just merely pointing a finger at one of the 2 remaining mafias saying "Geez you guys are cult".

You're right. I DON'T have any evidence and I DON'T have any supporting claims. All I am saying is that it is suspicious that you're in such a hurry to have everyone roleclaim when all its doing is giving Mafia/Cult targets and confusing town and allowing scum an opportunity to roleclaim a town role without looking suspicious. I HAVE said that this is merely a hypothesis and I HAVE stated (twice!) that I refuse to act until I have PO confirmation hence why I am only FOSing you rather than Voting. But now that you have overblown my views to make it look like I'm outright accusing you, I do feel a bit more confident in my hypothesis and for that I thank you.

I've already stated numerous times that I came out to stop both cults and luckily I managed to help take down one.

I said that there is a possibility that you belong to the Cult of Music only. You helped take out one cult and you may belong to the other and from what Fenris said in the first post:

Originally Posted by Fenris

There are two cults. Each cult wins when that cult comprises all of the town.

I believe this means that the two cults are in a race to get all of the town and ending one cult will more than help in getting rid of the competition (if I am interpreting this right...)

Yeah I was on the verge of dying anyway, but if I had been culted why would I help reveal the rest of our mafia even after one of the cults were taken out? If we weren't scared of losing to a much BIGGER threat (the cults) why would I even bother with any of it and just let my sacrifice be as it is? Plus nobody has countered any of our roleclaims so that should be proof enough that we are all who we say we are.

Simple enough. If Condatino is fully culted under CoM, you could just have everyone roleclaim and then force the rest of town to do the same since the goal of the culted mafia is no longer to kill anybody, but to cult all of the town. Therefore, the confusion caused by a mass roleclaim will help the Cult buy time and find targets for culting. Hell you may not even belong in the Condatino family, but if Condatino is fully culted, the real Condatino BG can just keep his trap shut while you force town to play your game.

I'm not pretending to be another sheep amongst the rest of the herd (town) I very much am scum but I am not culted scum. After tomorrow though all bets are off on who is and isn't culted. The CL could go for one of our mafia in hopes to control our night kills, or they could go after one of the POs to send out false reports on people and have them killed off. Hence the reasoning why we need roleclaims today to root people out and I find it very odd that you're just a plain old vanilla townie while everyone else has at least some flavor text to their role. My vote stays with bananarama for now.

And this just completely seems completely counterproductive. Let's just say you're telling the truth and the entire Condatino family has revealed itself to everybody, what good does it do? You're just setting yourself up for culting anyways and the fact that you're making this one big gamble to get the CL before the night comes is not a very good idea to say the least. Also, all these roleclaims are just reducing any possible suspects we may have by allowing scum to just roleclaim some random town aligned role to be in the clear.

Also, why is it so hard to believe that there are at least two vanilla townies in this game. Do you have any way to prove that I can't be a vanilla townie no matter what? I'm mean seriously why would I chose to roleclaim a powerless role of which I have no ability whatsoever to confirm? I have no investigations or killings or defendings that I can give as proof and basically, I am leaving myself completely defenseless to attacks. You'd think I'd be smart enough to roleclaim Paper Boy (don't where that came from, but that would be a cool role...) or something that would allow me at the very least to make up evidence to prove my innocence if I was actually scum.

Anyway, that being said, I still won't vote for you until I get some kind of confirmation of whether you are or aren't what you claimed, a Mafia BG (if I'm still alive by then...)

[Moogle0119]

Originally Posted by bananarama

You're right. I DON'T have any evidence and I DON'T have any supporting claims. All I am saying is that it is suspicious that you're in such a hurry to have everyone roleclaim when all its doing is giving Mafia/Cult targets and confusing town and allowing scum an opportunity to roleclaim a town role without looking suspicious. I HAVE said that this is merely a hypothesis and I HAVE stated (twice!) that I refuse to act until I have PO confirmation hence why I am only FOSing you rather than Voting. But now that you have overblown my views to make it look like I'm outright accusing you, I do feel a bit more confident in my hypothesis and for that I thank you.

I didn't overblow anything I'm merely sick of having to repeat my case against the same questions each time we route out another lurker who hasn't seemed to keep up with what's been going on. Not only is it merely just me repeating myself but it also wastes time we could be using going after the other lurkers/inactives to find out where their allegiance is.

Originally Posted by bananarama

I said that there is a possibility that you belong to the Cult of Music only. You helped take out one cult and you may belong to the other and from what Fenris said in the first post:

That's a pretty low possibility considering Sithdarth died the same night he was culted into the Cult of Music. I would DEFINITELY consider it a high possibility if we were talking about the Cult of Personality and it hadn't died off, since I'm still not even sure whether or not some of my other members of my mafia were culted or not previously by them. Luckily it doesn't matter at this point. And from the night post we can tell B_real was culted last night by the Cult of Music because of reasons I've already stated.

Originally Posted by bananarama

I believe this means that the two cults are in a race to get all of the town and ending one cult will more than help in getting rid of the competition (if I am interpreting this right...)

Sure that's absolutely true. However if I had been culted prior to today why would I have even bothered with the roleclaim idea in the first place? If you're assuming our entire mafia has been culted we could have very easily just placed a hit on B_real or Doppler that night and taken him out with ease. We would have also saved ourselves the trouble of having roleclaimed. However we did roleclaim to help narrow down the suspects as to who's the remaining CL.

Originally Posted by bananarama

Simple enough. If Condatino is fully culted under CoM, you could just have everyone roleclaim and then force the rest of town to do the same since the goal of the culted mafia is no longer to kill anybody, but to cult all of the town. Therefore, the confusion caused by a mass roleclaim will help the Cult buy time and find targets for culting. Hell you may not even belong in the Condatino family, but if Condatino is fully culted, the real Condatino BG can just keep his trap shut while you force town to play your game.

Well if you really want to go ahead and investigate me tonight, but as I said before we KNOW for a fact nobody's alignment has changed last night (besides former members of Cult of Personality going back to normal). Tomorrow unfortunately we do not have that luxury. Our POs could be culted. My mafia could be culted. The mason group could be culted. Some of the roleblockers/unlynchables/regular townies could be culted. Tomorrow is going to suck because we won't know who to trust when people start coming forth with information or declaring that they targeted a certain person with a power etc. Can you see why it is imperative we find the CL today before everything goes back to shit?

Originally Posted by bananarama

And this just completely seems completely counterproductive. Let's just say you're telling the truth and the entire Condatino family has revealed itself to everybody, what good does it do? You're just setting yourself up for culting anyways and the fact that you're making this one big gamble to get the CL before the night comes is not a very good idea to say the least. Also, all these roleclaims are just reducing any possible suspects we may have by allowing scum to just roleclaim some random town aligned role to be in the clear.

I personally am sick of being culted. This too was something I had addressed earlier today. Look at my mafia history and you'll see that it's a pretty ridiculous rate at which I am culted. When people started suspecting me of being the CL I knew that I was probably either going to die via lynch that day or get targeted by culting that night because Zavage had revealed I had targeted Sithdarth in some way on Night 1 and any smart CL would go after someone who had a power. After the votes started piling on I asked my fellow mafiates if they minded if I roleclaimed to help try to take out the cults and they said "Go for it!" so I did. I figured if I was going to die I might as well make my self a very anti-cult target because it would be very risky for a CL to cultify a roleclaimed mafiate because as you can see people have been going for my neck all day long until they realize that I do have a point and that our bigger threat is the cult that grows everyday and not our mafia which is only at 3. Apparently the rest of my mafia felt the same way as I did about being culted so they decided to try to help out the town too. I'd rather lose as my alignment to the town than win as the cult anymore, it's not satisfying.

Originally Posted by bananarama

Also, why is it so hard to believe that there are at least two vanilla townies in this game. Do you have any way to prove that I can't be a vanilla townie no matter what? I'm mean seriously why would I chose to roleclaim a powerless role of which I have no ability whatsoever to confirm? I have no investigations or killings or defendings that I can give as proof and basically, I am leaving myself completely defenseless to attacks. You'd think I'd be smart enough to roleclaim Paper Boy (don't where that came from, but that would be a cool role...) or something that would allow me at the very least to make up evidence to prove my innocence if I was actually scum.

It's not that it's hard to believe there's another vanilla townie in the game, but it's such a simple roleclaim that requires nothing to back it up with. While roleclaims like Pink Bunny, h4x to an extent, DarthMauler, and Jeneralissimo all have either previous actions during the day or night to help back up their claim or at least some reasoning with flavor text for their power. It's a lot harder, for someone who doesn't want their real alignment to be revealed, to claim to be something that has a power instead of just claiming vanilla townie.

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

I don't think it's far fetched at all. I've been worried about this since the second Condatino role claimed. I'm leaning towards voting for Moogle at the moment. Won't do it yet though.

You seem awfully quick to press that bandwagon button. Just seems really suspicious since secretskull already said we should work together and he is your mason buddy.

[OctoberRaven]

Hm. Ryander was the first of his mason group to go public with it, so I wouldn't be suprised if he was culted. Especially as he's a BG, preventing the CL from being nightkilled.

[Ryanderman]

Originally Posted by Moogle0119

You seem awfully quick to press that bandwagon button. Just seems really suspicious since secretskull already said we should work together and he is your mason buddy.

Yeah... no. I brought this up well before bananarama did. I was just expressing my agreement with his sentiments. I still think you're cult, possibly the CL, but I haven't voted yet, because I'm doing more extensive investigations into what was said when, who was culted and died when, etc. When I've gathered all the info I need, if it still points to you being cult, I'll present the evidence.

How do you know Sithdarth was culted by the Cult of Music the night he was killed? It's very likely that both cults went after him the first night, and Fenris had some system set up where by one cult got priority of his alligence over the other cult. That's what I'd do if I were GM and had two cults. And Sithdarth was the most tempting target of everyone the first night. The level of influcence he was able to demonstrate over the rest of us with his Maths (tm) was very impressive. If I were a cult leader, he'd have been my first choice. His ability to pursued would have kept him pretty safe from the lynch, and it would have been my guess that he'd have some sort of useful power role... which he did.

I don't have time right now - at work - but later I'll go into detail about why I think Moogle is the cult leader. Hopefully the day won't end in the next couple hours.

[Moogle0119]

I think pretty much your entire argument is stuff that's already been brought up before Ryanderman. Needless to say I could say the same thing about your mason group because I believe by our last count there could be up to 4 cultists and magically your group is made up of 4 masons. However the likely hood of such a thing is nearly unlikely, yet our mafia is a named group with one less person. Quite frankly you have very little to lose by claiming masons versus our claim of being mafia.

[secretskull]

If it makes you feel better, I don't think you're the cult leader, I believe that you are Contadino. The Cult of Personality is the only cult that could have reasonably gotten you guys, and not only did we destroy it, you helped us do it.

[Ryanderman]

Ok then,

Vote: Moogle

Here's why:

It all comes down to Sithdarth. He was killed night 2. Before that, either on nights 2 or 1 he was inducted by the Cults of both Personality and Music. Moogle's innocence, and that of his entire mafia depend on what nights Sith was inducted. The assumption has been that Sith was inducted on night 1 by the Cult of Personality, and on night 2 by the Cult of Music. But this doesn't fit with the facts.

If Sith was induced by Personality night 1, he would have had the entire day in which to tell the Politician his role, and who belonged to his Mafia. It's not reasonable to believe that he didn't tell, because both Sith and Doppler12 were active day 2. The first thing Doppler12 would have done upon inducting Sith would be to find out everything he knows. But the evidence indicates that Doppler12 did not know the other members of the Condatino family. If he had he would have inducted them.

This is where I had to think like a cult leader. In choosing his victims, the CL tries to find the people with either the most influence on the other players, or the most useful roles. Instead of having to guess what roles his potential victims had, Doppler12 had four people with roles he now knew. I don't see how he could have passed up the opportunity to acquire a BG, a role blocker, etc. The Don would have been a natural target as well. Doppler12 would not have had to waste inductions on people who may not have had any useful abilities. The best course of action upon inducting a mafiate is to induct the entire mafia.

But Doppler12 didn't do that. There is no evidence that he inducted any other Condatino. I can only see two possible reasons for that. Either he inducted Sith on night 2, and so didn't have time to get information from him, or Sith lied to Doppler12. And with Fenris's rule about having to cooperate when you've been inducted, there's only one reason Sith would have had for lying to his Cult Leader.

He was, after night 1, loyal to the Cult of Music. I don't know what criteria Fenris used to determine which cult got him, but he allegiance with to the Cult of Music. And with that, the Band Leader found out all the members of the Condatino family. And again, with the knowledge, I don't see how he could pass up the opportunity to induct the entire family.

So the way I see it, the only way the Condatino family could be innocent is if Sithdarth was inducted by both cults on night 2, when he also died. I don't see that as plausible.

Sithdarth had the ability to convince the majority of people in the game to vote for whoever he wanted them to, based upon no evidence at all, simply an arbitrary formula. That ability would have been very useful to a cult leader, and is why I believe Sith was inducted into both cults on night 1. With the game just beginning, the Cult Leaders would have had no idea what roles each player had. So they would have been looking instead for the most influential players to induct. Sith was far and away the most influential player on day one, with his Maths (tm). By day too, if I'm reading the thread correctly, his influence had waned significantly, and there was a lot of suspicion directed his way. I don't think Sith would have been nearly as attractive a target on Night 2 as he was on Night 1. Night 1 he would have been irresistible to a Cult Leader.

So merely from examining Sithdarth's inductions and death, I can only reasonably conclude that the Condatino's are culted. But to go from that to Moogle's guilt as CL required looking at his actions, and making some hypothesis about he motivations:

Moogle first claimed to be the Condatino BG when he started getting accusations about being the cult leader. I think it was then that he came up with an incredibly clever plan to deflect the accusations. It was brilliant really. He didn't even claim to be innocent. He admitted guilt to being a mafiate, and then convinced the town to wait to lynch him until after the CL was killed. It meant the town trusted him to work on their side, all the while congratulating themselves for being clever enough to know that the sneaky mafiate would betray them the moment the CL was dead, so they'd be sure to kill him then. I fell into this trap for a while as well.

Of course, doing this ensured that the town would never catch the CL, and that Moogle would never be lynched. And everything he said from then on in could be trusted, because what Cult Leader would induct a known mafiate?

Moogle could only pull this claim off if the real Condatino family didn't counter claim him. Which he could ensure, because he had them all under his control. But he went one better. Instead of having the family keep quiet, and thus leaving open the possibility that the real Condatino's just didn't care that he claimed to be them, Moogle had two of his minions confirm his role claim.

But I don't buy it. I could see an "innocent" Moogle claiming mafia to save his life for a time, but why the other two? They were never under nearly the danger of a lynch Moogle was. Why did they claim that had given up any chance of winning? That never sat right with me, why would a mafia with three members remaining just give up? And once they gave up, why would they try so hard to kill the cult leader? To me, a loss is a loss, no matter who it's from. Even if they hate the cult, I don't understand why they would put so much effort into securing another team's victory.

And even with Moogle outed, chance are he would have remained alive long enough to help kill the cult leader and give his two remaining family members a shot at victory. I tried for the longest time to figure out how a mafia could find a way to win when the entire town knew who they were. I couldn't believe they just gave up, so I tried to figure out their strategy. Nothing I came up with made any kind of sense.

No, I see no reason why the entire Condatino family would have role claimed except under orders to back up Moogle's claim.

And then the plan got even more brilliant. Moogle somehow conned the entire town into role claiming. Giving him the pick of the best roles to add to his army of minions. With the town's trust in him secured, he could pick up a spare PO, or role blocker, or BG and clinch the victory. I really am impressed.


I know there's not a whole lot of concrete evidence in here, but I think the circumstantial evidence is weighty and damning enough to warrant lynching Moogle today. If I'm wrong, I'm ready to face the personal consequences.

But I'm not wrong.

[Axl]

Vote: Moogle

Two Reasons:

1.

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

If I'm wrong, I'm ready to face the personal consequences.

But I'm not wrong.

Aw man that was fucking cool.

2. Masons should support each other.