My Little Pony: Friendship is Mafia - Page 119

Ryanderman · 10-10-2011, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

The free day would be day of lynches, rather. Like, SK doesn't make a hit tonight, gets me lynched tomorrow, and town is down, scum doesn't go down.

Still thinking Ryandermander is scum. Or just bad at figuring out extenuating conditions.

Or just overthinking it. Which would in effect be the later.
But yeah, roleblocking you wouldn't do much if there is no night flavor when a kill role is roleblocked.

Sifright · 10-10-2011, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

If I were SK, since this plan's public, I'd just not make a hit tonight to get a free day. As far as I know, blocks don't get to know that they actually did anything, right?

Edit: Stop making more pages than I see when I'm not around.

The corollary to that is that there is a night where a chance of a townie being killed knocked off is removed so thats kind of good.

Edit: besides which I doubt the SK would do that unless he were relatively certain he was implicating a mafiate.

Ryanderman · 10-10-2011, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sifright

Edit: besides which I doubt the SK would do that unless he were relatively certain he was implicating a mafiate.

I really think you're overestimating how much the SK may want to hit mafiates over town. But I don't know anymore.

Bard The 5th LW · 10-10-2011, 05:50 PM

The Sk is totally going to gun for Mafia as the town dwindles. Mafia wins when it outnumbers everyone else, so the SK is gonna want them gone as soon as possible. In a way, the town having higher numbers is almost beneficial to the SK. So yeah, he'll probably be gunning for people on the HOS lists, like Greed or myself.

Ryanderman · 10-10-2011, 05:57 PM

Maybe my problem is that I'd make a horrible SK. I keep trying to think of what I'd do were I the SK, and the conclusion I came to is that with all the power roles the town has, I'd be more worried about them than the mafia, which gets 1 kill and some lynch manipulation a day. Unless the mafia has power roles too, but we at least know the town does.

I think really, it would depend on how Nikose flips. If I were the SK, if Nikose flipped mafia, I'd gun for town, as the mafia would be weakend and I'd have more time. If Nikose flips town, then I could see how gunning for mafia would be more wise.

Anyway, I'm not trying to argue against a Nikose lynch at this point. It is the best thing we can do. And maybe I'm spending too much effort trying to predict the SK, and not enough trying to figure who stands where, given what we'll learn from lynching Nikose.

Oron · 10-10-2011, 05:57 PM

Had some time to catch up today. Just got a few things to say before I've got to get back to homework/studying (still in Midterm mode):

1) Now that the idea of Greg roleblocking RPG has already been proposed, the SK can simply not submit a target this night, as has also been stated. But this still puts pressure on the SK in that Greg might roleblock him anyway next night or at a later date/use the opportunity to find other scum power roles via roleblocking (if there are any Mafia roles other than the killer). Just throwing that out there. It's still quite possible for this knowledge to be advantageous.

However, I'm not proposing who Greg should actually target. That's his role.

2) It's been a while since Nik's posted (relatively speaking) in this thread. I still have yet to see him give a (what I'd consider) concrete response to everyone's continued suspicion of him, and in that regard, I want see what he has to say.

3) I agree that SK's most likely to prioritize removing Mafiates at this point. He won't want to risk a Mafia win.

Now back to studying. I'll take a peek at this thread every now and then until I'm done with exams.

Sifright · 10-10-2011, 06:03 PM

Also considering the reasonable likelyhood i'll be night killed my suspicion list is as follows.

HOS:Rpgdemon (over pushing my lynch coinciding with a anti nikose stance for a short while)
HOS:Ryanderman (Worrying about the SK, also a minor attempt to push the lynch wagon away from Nikose)
HOS:Bard (low activity - in lieu of other targets)
HOS: Oron (low activity - in lieu of other targets)

Bard The 5th LW · 10-10-2011, 06:08 PM

Activity has mostyly been low because of after school stuff. Tuesday is basically the only day of the week I go directly home after class.

IHateMakingNames · 10-10-2011, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sifright

Well at this point SK is the biggest threat to mafia

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oron

3) I agree that SK's most likely to prioritize removing Mafiates at this point. He won't want to risk a Mafia win.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fenris

17. Ryanderman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oron

However, I'm not proposing who

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oron

should actually target.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

I think really, it would depend on how Nikose flips. If I were the SK, if Nikose flipped mafia, I'd gun for town, as the mafia would be weakend and I'd have more time. If Nikose flips town, then I could see how gunning for mafia would be more wise.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fenris

3. Nikose

17. Ryanderman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

If I were the SK, if Nikose flipped mafia, I'd gun for town

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sifright

understand

Karrrrrrrrrrrresche · 10-10-2011, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

I make a personal guarantee to the SK that if it comes to a draw like that, if we as a town are so utterly incompetent as to allow him to come to a 1:1 situation with me? I will vote to lynch myself.

10-10-2011, 05:57 PM	#1185
Ryanderman Beard of Leadership Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 827	Maybe my problem is that I'd make a horrible SK. I keep trying to think of what I'd do were I the SK, and the conclusion I came to is that with all the power roles the town has, I'd be more worried about them than the mafia, which gets 1 kill and some lynch manipulation a day. Unless the mafia has power roles too, but we at least know the town does. I think really, it would depend on how Nikose flips. If I were the SK, if Nikose flipped mafia, I'd gun for town, as the mafia would be weakend and I'd have more time. If Nikose flips town, then I could see how gunning for mafia would be more wise. Anyway, I'm not trying to argue against a Nikose lynch at this point. It is the best thing we can do. And maybe I'm spending too much effort trying to predict the SK, and not enough trying to figure who stands where, given what we'll learn from lynching Nikose. __________________ ~Your robot reminds me of you. You tell it to stop, it turns. You tell it to turn, it stops. You tell it to take out the trash, it watches reruns of Firefly.~

10-10-2011, 05:57 PM	#1186
Oron Curious Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 208	Had some time to catch up today. Just got a few things to say before I've got to get back to homework/studying (still in Midterm mode): 1) Now that the idea of Greg roleblocking RPG has already been proposed, the SK can simply not submit a target this night, as has also been stated. But this still puts pressure on the SK in that Greg might roleblock him anyway next night or at a later date/use the opportunity to find other scum power roles via roleblocking (if there are any Mafia roles other than the killer). Just throwing that out there. It's still quite possible for this knowledge to be advantageous. However, I'm not proposing who Greg should actually target. That's his role. 2) It's been a while since Nik's posted (relatively speaking) in this thread. I still have yet to see him give a (what I'd consider) concrete response to everyone's continued suspicion of him, and in that regard, I want see what he has to say. 3) I agree that SK's most likely to prioritize removing Mafiates at this point. He won't want to risk a Mafia win. Now back to studying. I'll take a peek at this thread every now and then until I'm done with exams. __________________ Sneaking around the forums to read your posts.

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10-10-2011, 05:50 PM	#1184
Bard The 5th LW Feelin' Super! Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 4,191	The Sk is totally going to gun for Mafia as the town dwindles. Mafia wins when it outnumbers everyone else, so the SK is gonna want them gone as soon as possible. In a way, the town having higher numbers is almost beneficial to the SK. So yeah, he'll probably be gunning for people on the HOS lists, like Greed or myself.

10-10-2011, 06:03 PM	#1187
Sifright Fact sphere is the most handsome Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,108	Also considering the reasonable likelyhood i'll be night killed my suspicion list is as follows. HOS:Rpgdemon (over pushing my lynch coinciding with a anti nikose stance for a short while) HOS:Ryanderman (Worrying about the SK, also a minor attempt to push the lynch wagon away from Nikose) HOS:Bard (low activity - in lieu of other targets) HOS: Oron (low activity - in lieu of other targets)

10-10-2011, 06:08 PM	#1188
Bard The 5th LW Feelin' Super! Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 4,191	Activity has mostyly been low because of after school stuff. Tuesday is basically the only day of the week I go directly home after class.