NPF Mafia: Berserk Edition

[Truce]

At least my death wasn't in vain. If the mafia took me out, that meant that none of the town roles died in my place.

It makes you wonder though...it makes you wonder...

[Ferix Stader]

*does not know who this Ferix Strader is, but could be convinced of his mafiaism*

I'm convinced I'm not Mafia, however.

And now, for a two for one special; random.org gave me the number five, and since I'm now under suspicion for god knows what illegible reason (I'd like to know from your mouth why you suspect me, B Real)...

POST BY POST ANALYSIS!!!1!one

First person: DarkMonkey (player 5)


First post ingame (#87):

Holy Crap! I come back from school and it's already night 2! sorry everyone, didn't think school would be a problem. Mon-Fri I'm gone till 3:30 in da afternoon, and wednessday I'm gone till 4:30. *rereads thread*

Eh... like me, he's distracted. Not sure anything can be derived from this, but you stellar (and interstellar) fonts of wisdom may spot something I missed here.


Second post ingame (#116):

Hmmm... Changing a vote in an edit for "spacing"? I won't jump on the bandwagon, but FOS B_Real

This... This, to me, is interesting. He wasn't convinced enough to jump on B Real for an edited post, but wanted to show he was paying attention. Slightly scummish to my feel, but I've seen worse.


Third post (#142):

Which is exactly what a mafiate would want us to think. You incriminate yourself, then say that it proves your innocence. Sounds abit scummy to me.

And IOWACJE, I'm pretty sure you're not allowed to discuss the game outside of the game itself.

DarkMonkey shows a decent amount of logic here. I generally approve. Again, someone help me spot stuff I miss, but... this post almost - almost - completely clears him for me. A mafiate would've let B Real burn for that - at least for a little bit.


Fourth Post (#149):

Oh yes, the "If I'm alive I'm helping the town" line. Used in conjunction with the "lynching means we lose a townie" line, it can be quite convincing. I also find your "lynch me and your closer to lose" logic faulty. We may lose a townie, true, but we may also get a maiate or the SK.

I still withhold my vote, for I don't like grasping at straws. However, 2ndFOS:B_Real

To provide context, here's the post right before it (#148), by B Real again:

Lynch me, and be one day closer to lose. Leave me alive, and you shall be 1 day closer to lose or victory. Tis the truth. I cannot guarantee anyone elses Innocence. I can only guarantee mine and mine alone.

I can however only attempt to prove another's guilt. But again, only If I be alive can I aid the town in any way I can.

Again, I generally approve of DarkMonkey's statement here. Yes, what B Real says may be true, but. Butbutbut. -anyone- can say that. I could say that. IHMN could've said that. Would it change whatever roles - mafia, townie, SK, cultist - we recieved one bit? No. Thus, B Real did nothing but appeal to us masses with that, as DM pointed out.

(As a side note, B Real acknowledged this problem some in post #150:

Well, this early in the game, how can I possibly defend myself with no proof of my innocence? All you have is faulty accusations against me that may or may not be correct, of which at this point I am trying to convince you that those accusations are wrong, which they are, to try to let the town actually get a chance at lynching a mafiate or the SK and not a bloody townie.

Also might I remind you that the only people who know our own true roles our ourselves and the GO. So if you're expecting someone to back me up, then I'm sorry, but with this much uncertainty in such a game as this, there rarely is anyone who does back up anyone else nowaday unless they know for a fact that that person is a townie, and again this early in the game, we are not sure of ANYONE's role other than CmP's.

This is may last defense. If you still decide to lynch me, then do so now so we can find out I was really a townie, start the night, possibly lose 2, maybe 3, more townies. (Mafiate, SK, and Vigilante are all still alive right?)

I'm not sure if this reveals anything either, but hey. Again, providing source for you fonts of wisdom to pour over).


Fifth Post (#163):

Well B_Real has a point, random lynching aint the way to go. Your agument passed my test. UnFOS: B_Real

A general agreement between B Real and DM at this point. Not much to add.


Sixth Post (#196):

Well, this is certainly interesting, but I have plans with my family today. I'll see ya'll later tonight.

...almost as if he were getting out of Dodge before it got hot. However, it could also just be interpreted as being polite.


Seventh Post (#206):

Hmmm... does anyone notice anything about TWWDI's death? specificaly how his role was never revealed? look close, his name is in yellow, but it doesn't have a role or alignemt to go with it.

Pointing out a GM mistake. Nothing suspicious or inauspicious about that, so far as I can see... also, this post was made the day after #196, so at least that is validated.


Eighth Post (#231):

eh, Vote: Major_Blood

Another vote on the Non-existant Player Bandwagon (NPB).


Ninth Post (#234):

"And now we play the waiting game... ok the waiting game sucks, who's up for hungry hungry hippos!"

(cookie if you recognise the quote)

Spam. That 'twas his last post here.

!@#$#@!@#$#@!@#$#@!

Alright, I guess it's my turn for analysis, but I'm well aware I have next to nothing. Still. Best to try and show posts and explain them so we can move on, no? (eh-he, two palindromes)


First Post (#21):

Well, shi-kash-navamut. That's not an auspicious beginning for us.

So. Who would've wanted Newb dead from the get-go? Someone who feared his lists and his logic, presumably...

Trying to speculate on Newb's death. I prefer creative swearing, in case you hadn't noticed.


Second Post (#23):

Wasn't Mesden the one who went "oy oy, this feels like a trap" and thus caught Kikui?

'twouldn't be beneficial to lynch her unless we know she's Mafia (or we have no better alternatives). However, the same holds true for everyone.

So, unless someone acts as scummy as a pond of mosquitos, we have no clear leads for day 1. Yet.

Waiting for a lead and defending Mesden from MoM's (now, in hindsight, rather amusing) post. Also referencing an earlier mafia in response to MoM, which really shouldn'tve entered into this game or its arguments.


Third Post (#69!):

Vote: IHMN

Let's end this, see whether we can trust CmP or not, and move on, mmkay?

Trusting in Mr. Police Man on IHMN. Not much else.


Fourth Post (#71):

Sithdarth: I wouldn't have thought that until now. For all I knew, you were doing a Newb and predicting the other people's actions.

Now, however, I'm keeping an eye on you.

Being generally amused as Sithdarth seemed to want to be lynched as a cultist. I didn't have enough for a FoS or a Unvote-Vote; still, his post (#70,quoted below) seemed a bit off:

Ya know I think I'm going to shut my mouth now before everyone thinks I'm cult.

Fifth Post (#119):

Rhiya: People die fall down us townies go "what?".

I'm reading, but I honestly am unsure of anyone right now. So I'm going to stay back for a little bit and see what develops.

Making a comment to my fellow Mafiate from SoL, and watching everyone else's posts.


Sixth Post (#205):

Yeah, I'm still alive. I was just sick with fever - thus didn't really feel like attempting to read through all this.

I've got a few beads on people, however... I'll assemble what I've got and post it by tomorrow at the latest.

Again, sincere apologies for lurking through most of day 2.

This was the beginning of The Sickness From the Third Square of Heck. ...in all honesty, I don't remember my suspicions here: all I remember is that they involved The Interstellar Space Pope, but I can't remember why I suspected him. I'll probably re-analyze his posts later, but now it'll be to determine why someone wanted him dead.


Seventh Post (#255)

...ugh. Round two of Me vs. Flu: Flu 2, Me 0. Flu advances to the next match.

...I've tried to keep up with this as much as possible, and the suspicion I had mentioned much earlier's no longer valid, so I'm trying to figure out what to say.

Expect me to do a long-arse post accusing a random person and seeing the general response - both of the person accused, and the rest of you guys.

But for now, catching up on 12 sections of math that I need to do.

Incendius: Do we get a lynch extension for accidentally killing someone not in-game? (is just mildly curious)

...and I've got no clue why I said the suspicion wasn't valid, here, to be honest. All suspicions of everyone who isn't dead are valid: suspicions of the dead are either eliminated or confirmed. Yeah, whatever I had (Flu, bubonic plague, mastiichotheytria, something) had kept me in bed for multiple days. I had hoped to be coming back so we could fix our mistake and lynch a mafiate today instead of the innocent Silly Kitty, but it wasn't to be.


Eighth Post: This one.

!@#$#@!@#$#@!@#$#@!

Anyways. I'll do another double analysis later in this Day, but again, got math homework and some computer programs to do. All I can say is that I'm decently convinced that DarkMonkey isn't Mafia.

(Edited because I neglected to note why I'd be reanalyzing SpacePope's posts this time around)

[P-Sleazy]

I was hoping to guage people's reactions. A random vote this late in the game acts differently than one right at the beginning.

KBM and Thundergod Cid have proven themselves in my eyes that their mafiates trying to save a fellow mafiate why I was doing random voting again, and I seem to have hit gold. So they want some proof before having to vote off a fellow mafiate. See that PROOF. Now I dont know about you guys, but last time I asked for proof and all we got was "not posting" which isnt exactly proof at all, we voted off a townie. Now they may just be weary townies but that just doesnt seem right.

Steel Shadow however noticed what I was really doing and made his sentiment well before KBM so there is no excuse for KBM to have missed that someone realized I was random voting again.

So I'm gonna stick with this in saying that KBM and Thundergod Cid are 2 mafiates trying to get a reason out of me for voting off a fellow mafiate of theirs and say that Ferix Strader is indeed a mafiate.

[Ferix Stader]

...again, who is the Ferix Strader person? I don't see him on the list.

And, B Real; KBM is indeed suspicious for his post, but: no one expects a random vote this late into the game. I'm appreciative of the fact that you indeed did a random vote (although I swear, by constantly randomly voting me you want a rivalry or something) to inspire discussion. However, now that we have a legion of posts behind us, it's quite possible that by gathering together what they have said, it'll be easier to catch the Mafia in the act.


Secondly: I just realized this after re-reading everything and looking back at the first post. Here's the current list of players:

1. Silly Kitty - Townie: Town Aligned
2. Newb - Townie, Town Aligned Stabbed Night 0
3. Mesden: Cult Initiate Eviscerated night 1
4. TheWizardWhoDidIt: Townie town aligned Cleaved night 2
5. DarkMonkey
6. Ecurt
7. Steel_Shadow
8. Ferix Stader
9. DarthMauler64
10. IOWAJC
11. King_Black_Mage
12. CallmePrismatic
13. TheSpacePope
14. Inbred_Chocobo: Townie town aligned Blissed Night 1
15. MasterofMagic Townie: Town aligned Sent to hell and slashed with an axe Night 2
16. B_Real_Shadows
17. CrotchKnocker
18. Thundergod Cid
19. Ogianres
20. mrchaos
21. IHateMakingNames: Conrad: Mafia Member Lynched Day 1
22. Sithdarth: Townie Town aligned Cleaved night 1
23. Rhiya Ravenwing
24. Raiden

Add the fact that Ecurt is dead (as well as the Space Pope) and what do you get?

1. Silly Kitty - Townie: Town Aligned
2. Newb - Townie, Town Aligned Stabbed Night 0
3. Mesden: Cult Initiate Eviscerated night 1
4. TheWizardWhoDidIt: Townie town aligned Cleaved night 2
5. DarkMonkey
6. Ecurt Dead night 3

...anyone else find it odd that DarkMonkey isn't one of the dead by this pattern? 'course, I could be overanalyzing, but...


Next: Open Statement to the Town and to the Mafia.

Town: Don't defend me. Reasoning: See statement to the Mafia.

Mafia: Please, by all means, defend me or continue to do so. That way, when my corpse shows up Town Aligned, we know precisely who to lynch into the Stone Age.

If my death helps us lynch the remaining four Mafia I'm perfectly willing to make that sacrifice.


Finally: Returning to B Real's Comments

It wasn't obvious you were random-voting to me, to be honest. I was more ready to believe you were a Paranoid or Insane Cop who found a "Mafiate" reading on me. That having been said, the results you did get (one unsurety with TGC, one confirmed wiseman with SteelShadow, and one suspicious somewhat with KBM, and my omghugearse post that also did not realize it was random) were useful. Now that randomosity's been used...

*pokes the vote on him repeatedly* This is uncomfortable; mind removing?

[P-Sleazy]

Well, I chose your name cause it was the first name to pop up and I didn't want to look at the list, so I went with someone I knew was still alive right off the bat. And sorry for messing up your name...twice.

UNVOTE:FERIX STRADER
VOTE: FERIX STADER

[Ferix Stader]

Fair enough on both counts, but why're you still voting for me again?

[Steel Shadow]

To be fair, I thought you were actualy voting, and I was at a loss as to why. Hence my razor like wit that made me look cleverer than I was.

And you voted for him again. Did you mean to do that? It's kind of odd... Scratch the kinda part and put in very.

[Fenris]

He was fixing a typo. *back to my plane of nonexistence*

[Thundergod Cid]

I was only asking for clarification, since you voted without giving any justification. It was not my intent to defend Ferix or attack B_real. I wasn't aware that asking a question was considered scummy.

[DarkMonkey]

Originally Posted by Ferix Stader

...anyone else find it odd that DarkMonkey isn't one of the dead by this pattern? 'course, I could be overanalyzing, but...

You realize that that pattern is the order we signed up in, right? But anyway.

You raise some very good points Felix, and your massive posts are good for reference. I was gone Friday-Sunday at camp, but it was night then so it didn't matter. You raised concern about my not responding to B_Real's random vote. That was because I was 1) braindead and 2) unable to find a good way to argue or agree with that. I just got back from school, and will begin posting, as I have before.

As for your concerns with the random vote, There is no Paranoid/insane cop. All we have is 1PO, 1BG, 1SK, and 4M. don't quote me on that, I may have forgotten something.