Mafia: Bleach - Page 45

Cephrir · 08-23-2006, 06:20 AM

I think the best way to resolve this is to kill one of our suspects. Then we can kill the other one if they were innocent, and kill the fake PO. I am convinced that Ecurt is the PO because, well, he found that I'm a townie and he's right (not that this will convince anyone else, but that's why I believe him). Therefore, Vote: Ryanderman.

Little side note: I will be staying somewhere with more decently priced internet for a few days, so expect me to be more active for 4-5 days.

Ryanderman · 08-23-2006, 06:29 AM

I'd be ok with taking one for the town, except we don't have that luxury. There are 13 of us left. 6 cultists most likely. I'm going to assume they haven't taken control of the mafia, that would mean they'd win already and wouldn't need this farce.

If I die, Arhra will induct someone else tonight giving them 7 cultists. If the mafia kills a townie, it will be 7 cultisist and 11 townies. If the mafia kills a cultist, even Arhra it will be 6 cultistst and 11 townies. Either way they will have a majority and will be able to force the lynch. We'll be doomed.

It's now or never, you all have to make the right choice. Don't go with whoever has the most votes, with 6 cultists they'll be able to sway the vote to me with even one non cultist voting for me. Study the thread, and make your choice wisely. I can tell you I'm just a townie till I'm blue in the face, but it's up to you to make the right decision. Please vote Arhra.

Arhra · 08-23-2006, 06:29 AM

Ecurt is lying. He voted for Nikose on Day 4. Now why would he be doing that if he'd investigated Nikose on Night 0?

Another thing is the fact Ecurt doesn't claim to have investigated Garud at some point, a bit strange considering how very suspicious of him he was.

Ryanderman · 08-23-2006, 06:31 AM

Hold on, you're not working with Ecurt? I have to go to work, so I'll be gone a couple hours, but Unvote: Arhra till I figure what's going on.

Demonlink2 · 08-23-2006, 07:05 AM

Let's us look at it this way. Ecurt is claiming to be the PO. Now, he also claims the following...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ecurt

Night 0: Nikose; Townie
Night 1: Ole Dude; He's the deputy. If I die, he becomes the new PO.
Night 2: Demonlink2; Mafiate
Night 3: Cephir; Townie
Night 4: Ryanderman; Cult Head

Now then, for what it's worth with the investigation, I'd wonder why he didn't subtly try to take me out. Not even a "Hey, let's look at Newb's posts, maybe he was on to something!" post. Nada. I can;t believe that he is the PO. I'll even Roleclaim: Townie for what it's worth. But Ecurt is a lying mother. But, the cult winning is too great a risk. I'll get his ass later.

Vote: Arhra.

Arhra · 08-23-2006, 07:34 AM

I would strongly advise no-one votes for anyone yet until we can be more sure about Inbred and Ecurt. With six cultists, even one person making the wrong decision could mean a lynch.

EDIT: We'll need every non-cultist voting in the right direction to be able to lynch a cultist.

Ryanderman · 08-23-2006, 08:14 AM

I can't figure out why Ecurt would try to defend Arhra like he did if Arhra is innocent. Ecurt is scum of some sort, and outing himself to stop a even sa false PO accusation of an innocent seems very foolish. Though I guess if he knew Arhra is innocent and that IC was lying, he could use this opportunity to convince everyone that he is the PO. But then why would he do such a poor job of it, with a couple obvious errors, as Arhra pointed out?

I have a theory. I think Ecurt is trying to get himself lynched.

What if the mafia acutally is under the control of the cult? Perhaps the reason they aren't trying to pull a chat8bit mafia stunt is that they took initiated the entire mafia to prevent what happened last time. It would help explain the cult's amazing survival rate.

If the cult controls the mafia, then all the cult leader has to do to win is not get lynched today. Even if we lynch another cultist, he'll initiate a new townie tonight, and the mafia will kill a townie. That will leave 11 players, 6 of whom will be cult. That will be enough to control the lynch and win.

So then IC accuses Arhra. Assuming IC is telling the truth, Arhra has a problem. It's almost impossible to defend against a PO accusation. So instead of trying to defend himself, Arhra comes up with a cunning plan. If all he has to do is live through the day, he can sacrifice one of his cultists. Ecurt makes a bogus PO claim with just enough evidence of falsehood. Arhra points out that Ecurt is lying, suddenly the whole town is turned against Ecurt, and the attention is off Arhra. If we lynch Ecurt, the cult wins. If we lynch anyone but the leader, the cult wins.

This is just a theory though, based on IC telling the truth and the mafia being under the control of the cult. If the mafia is still free, then the cult leader can't afford any cultist being lynched, since the mafia could possibly kill another cultist tonight. That would leave 5 cultists to 6 non cult.

I think this theory fits all the evidence as we have it, but I'm not willing to base my vote on it yet. I'll hold for a little longer.

Arhra · 08-23-2006, 08:47 AM

I'm working under the theory that the mafia is entirely subsumed by the cult right now. If it's not true, the cult's luck in not getting attacked at night is amazing.

If the mafia is partially absorbed, this manevouring is uneccesary. The cultist + mafiate numbers would be be enough to get a majority. Therefore, it is mostly likely that we're working with a fully cult mafia due to the unlikelyhood of the other theories.

Now, I can say that in this case, I wouldn't be the cult leader because of the simple fact that if I was, I'd have only partially inducted the mafia so that I could affect as many votes as possible.

Besides, how is a falsehood from Ecurt any clue of collusion? To gain majority, the cult would only need one more day. Why have an obvious flaw in a PO roleclaim when you just need to be convincing enough to trick people for one day?

EDIT: Incidentally, I am interested to see if this thing about Ole Dude having a secret role is true.

Ryanderman · 08-23-2006, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arhra

I'm working under the theory that the mafia is entirely subsumed by the cult right now. If it's not true, the cult's luck in not getting attacked at night is amazing.

If the mafia is partially absorbed, this manevouring is uneccesary. The cultist + mafiate numbers would be be enough to get a majority. Therefore, it is mostly likely that we're working with a fully cult mafia due to the unlikelyhood of the other theories.

I have to agree with you completely there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arhra

Now, I can say that in this case, I wouldn't be the cult leader because of the simple fact that if I was, I'd have only partially inducted the mafia so that I could affect as many votes as possible.

Except you would remember what happened in the last mafia, would want to prevent the possibility of a mafiate who didn't want the cult to win, like Steel Shadow last game. You of all people would know the danger of trusting someone who hadn't been initiated.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arhra

Besides, how is a falsehood from Ecurt any clue of collusion? To gain majority, the cult would only need one more day. Why have an obvious flaw in a PO roleclaim when you just need to be convincing enough to trick people for one day?

In my theory, the obvious flaw would be there because the goal is to convince people that Ecurt is scum so they won't be paying attention to the real cult leader for this one vitally important day.

EDIT since no one else has posted: But what if IC is lying? I had previously supected that Mr. G Williams was the PO, and had gotten the role when Silly Kitty put it up for grabs after someone dropped out. The way he kept going after Roy because of knowing him well didn't really convince me. I thought he was using it as cover for PO knowledge. A PO roleclaim and accusation on IC's part would be a good way to prempt any attempt to lynch the cult leader for a day.

Inbred Chocobo · 08-23-2006, 09:39 AM

You know what I think? I think Ole' Dude, Arhra, and Ecurt are all mafia. Ecurt knows Ole' Dude's secret role (I mean PO in his right mind wouldn't investigate him?). Also, I looked at Faukneruap Day 0, found out.

I think then Arhra has a brilliant way to defend himself as cult leader. He has Ecurt roleclaim PO, make some bogus claims, and then lets Arhra try to lead a lynch against him.

That is really what I see here, (unless I am blind or something) so I leave my vote where its at.

Also, night 0 I investigated faukneruap, and thats why I lead a lynch against him. Night 1 I got Mesden, so I did nothing to her, and if figures her role transfers to Ole' Dude.(Or maybe I did do Ole' Dude, ah it don't matter now.) Night 2 I checked out Roy, which is why I started making fun of him like I did. (Well, moreso.) Course it wasn't till the next day I got him lynched. Night 3, I got Demonlink2, who is a townie. Then last night, I got Arhra, which was the cult leader.

08-23-2006, 06:20 AM	#441
Cephrir With no _s! Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: In the wild. Posts: 24	I think the best way to resolve this is to kill one of our suspects. Then we can kill the other one if they were innocent, and kill the fake PO. I am convinced that Ecurt is the PO because, well, he found that I'm a townie and he's right (not that this will convince anyone else, but that's why I believe him). Therefore, Vote: Ryanderman. Little side note: I will be staying somewhere with more decently priced internet for a few days, so expect me to be more active for 4-5 days. __________________ :rmage: See, anytime you do anything, the_e is a one in twenty chance that you will c_itically fail.

08-23-2006, 06:29 AM	#442
Ryanderman Beard of Leadership Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 827	I'd be ok with taking one for the town, except we don't have that luxury. There are 13 of us left. 6 cultists most likely. I'm going to assume they haven't taken control of the mafia, that would mean they'd win already and wouldn't need this farce. If I die, Arhra will induct someone else tonight giving them 7 cultists. If the mafia kills a townie, it will be 7 cultisist and 11 townies. If the mafia kills a cultist, even Arhra it will be 6 cultistst and 11 townies. Either way they will have a majority and will be able to force the lynch. We'll be doomed. It's now or never, you all have to make the right choice. Don't go with whoever has the most votes, with 6 cultists they'll be able to sway the vote to me with even one non cultist voting for me. Study the thread, and make your choice wisely. I can tell you I'm just a townie till I'm blue in the face, but it's up to you to make the right decision. Please vote Arhra. __________________ ~Your robot reminds me of you. You tell it to stop, it turns. You tell it to turn, it stops. You tell it to take out the trash, it watches reruns of Firefly.~

08-23-2006, 06:29 AM	#443
Arhra Ara ara! Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Neo Venezia Posts: 5,013	Ecurt is lying. He voted for Nikose on Day 4. Now why would he be doing that if he'd investigated Nikose on Night 0? Another thing is the fact Ecurt doesn't claim to have investigated Garud at some point, a bit strange considering how very suspicious of him he was. __________________ This post is a good source of Ara ara, ufufu.* *These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This post is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.

08-23-2006, 06:31 AM	#444
Ryanderman Beard of Leadership Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 827	Hold on, you're not working with Ecurt? I have to go to work, so I'll be gone a couple hours, but Unvote: Arhra till I figure what's going on. __________________ ~Your robot reminds me of you. You tell it to stop, it turns. You tell it to turn, it stops. You tell it to take out the trash, it watches reruns of Firefly.~

08-23-2006, 07:34 AM	#446
Arhra Ara ara! Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Neo Venezia Posts: 5,013	I would strongly advise no-one votes for anyone yet until we can be more sure about Inbred and Ecurt. With six cultists, even one person making the wrong decision could mean a lynch. EDIT: We'll need every non-cultist voting in the right direction to be able to lynch a cultist. __________________ This post is a good source of Ara ara, ufufu.* These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This post is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease. Last edited by Arhra; 08-23-2006 at 07:37 AM.*

08-23-2006, 08:14 AM	#447
Ryanderman Beard of Leadership Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 827	I can't figure out why Ecurt would try to defend Arhra like he did if Arhra is innocent. Ecurt is scum of some sort, and outing himself to stop a even sa false PO accusation of an innocent seems very foolish. Though I guess if he knew Arhra is innocent and that IC was lying, he could use this opportunity to convince everyone that he is the PO. But then why would he do such a poor job of it, with a couple obvious errors, as Arhra pointed out? I have a theory. I think Ecurt is trying to get himself lynched. What if the mafia acutally is under the control of the cult? Perhaps the reason they aren't trying to pull a chat8bit mafia stunt is that they took initiated the entire mafia to prevent what happened last time. It would help explain the cult's amazing survival rate. If the cult controls the mafia, then all the cult leader has to do to win is not get lynched today. Even if we lynch another cultist, he'll initiate a new townie tonight, and the mafia will kill a townie. That will leave 11 players, 6 of whom will be cult. That will be enough to control the lynch and win. So then IC accuses Arhra. Assuming IC is telling the truth, Arhra has a problem. It's almost impossible to defend against a PO accusation. So instead of trying to defend himself, Arhra comes up with a cunning plan. If all he has to do is live through the day, he can sacrifice one of his cultists. Ecurt makes a bogus PO claim with just enough evidence of falsehood. Arhra points out that Ecurt is lying, suddenly the whole town is turned against Ecurt, and the attention is off Arhra. If we lynch Ecurt, the cult wins. If we lynch anyone but the leader, the cult wins. This is just a theory though, based on IC telling the truth and the mafia being under the control of the cult. If the mafia is still free, then the cult leader can't afford any cultist being lynched, since the mafia could possibly kill another cultist tonight. That would leave 5 cultists to 6 non cult. I think this theory fits all the evidence as we have it, but I'm not willing to base my vote on it yet. I'll hold for a little longer. __________________ ~Your robot reminds me of you. You tell it to stop, it turns. You tell it to turn, it stops. You tell it to take out the trash, it watches reruns of Firefly.~

08-23-2006, 08:47 AM	#448
Arhra Ara ara! Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Neo Venezia Posts: 5,013	I'm working under the theory that the mafia is entirely subsumed by the cult right now. If it's not true, the cult's luck in not getting attacked at night is amazing. If the mafia is partially absorbed, this manevouring is uneccesary. The cultist + mafiate numbers would be be enough to get a majority. Therefore, it is mostly likely that we're working with a fully cult mafia due to the unlikelyhood of the other theories. Now, I can say that in this case, I wouldn't be the cult leader because of the simple fact that if I was, I'd have only partially inducted the mafia so that I could affect as many votes as possible. Besides, how is a falsehood from Ecurt any clue of collusion? To gain majority, the cult would only need one more day. Why have an obvious flaw in a PO roleclaim when you just need to be convincing enough to trick people for one day? EDIT: Incidentally, I am interested to see if this thing about Ole Dude having a secret role is true. __________________ This post is a good source of Ara ara, ufufu.* *These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This post is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.

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