Mafia: Basic

[Mesden]

Well, I know for a fact that POS and Twid have limited internet service as of now.

POS is in the midst of moving and is trying to get restore his internet service so, as far as I know.

And Twiddy is lacking in the service until sometime later this week.

So, if you want to eliminate players sheerly out of inactivity, I'd have to go with Twid and POS.

If you want sheer lack of activity without a reason, then Neyo or SE, as SE did sign up for another game recently and Neyo was on AIM a bit earlier.

[Sithdarth]

Hmm indeed that would make sense. Of course inactivity is still inactivity regardless of reason. Although, with a chance of coming back I would place Twiddy and Pos at the bottom of the kill list. That is unless the ones without reason show up, or get killed off and Twiddy and Pos still aren't back. As you said its best to speak in exteremes and if you aren't part of the solution, or the problem in this case, your just dead weight and have to go.

[Bailey]

While Neyo was on earlier, it was to state that he had forgotten he had signed up, mention that he was on hiatus, and request that he be dropped. His vigilante role will be given to somebody else. Or possibly not. I'll send both freefloating roles through a random generator, with them landing on nobody as a valid option.

[CrazyBen]

Unvote: No Lynch

Yeah, I was really tired when I did that, and it seemed like a good idea at the time. Oh, and secretskull? Don't bother voting against me, you know I'm too adorable to kill <3.

To help analyze some of the facts of the night's killings, so you can comment on that, for the mafia one, we need to find someone who maybe has some connection to the number 5 (why would you fire five shots, when, to my knowledge, just about any gun around is going to have a minimum of 6 shots?). Maybe they were the fifth person to sign up, or are a big fan of fithfiend. And for the SK, that was some sick stuff, so we should be trying to look for a phycopath. Maybe an official, adorable one...

Also, while it was probably just some good-natured kidding, we should scrutinize CmP for trying to implicate Mesden right off the bat. It could be a joke, or it could be a Mafiate trying to trick us by starting a joke guaranteed to grow out of proportions. I'm not saying we should lynch him, just that maybe the reporter (when we have one) should put him at the top of the investigate list.

[P-Sleazy]

All I know is that the inactives usually end up NOT being mafiates because in the previous games I've played, particularily Incedius' game, the mafia was basically the only people who were left contributing in day posts and such, or atleast 3 of them were, and I'm assuming that the other 2 were there too.

Mesden, you seriously overreacted to my vote, and that draws a hellovalot of suspicious towards you from me. You seemed to go WAY overboard in trying to defend yourself, much more than was needed.

Catlover, you voted for Mesden for basically the same reason I still suspect Mesden, her overblown reaction to my vote for her.

Crazyben, the worst time to play this game is at night, since thats where all the killing roles outside the townie lynch are. And a no lynch, seriously, worst thing to do.




I'm going to show the chances of killing a mafiate here with a lynch, vig, and SK. with actual numbers and not just saying, "its better to lynch"

there are 21 players left. 5 of which is the mafia, and 1 is the serial killer so thats 6 threats to the town. THe town has the Vig, PO, doctor and Reporter (I hope I'm not forgetting anyone) for a total of 4 roles pro-town. that leaves 11 vanilla townies in the game.

Now we know the Mafia is going to kill the 1 player, that player could be the SK too, so the odds of them hitting any given person is 1/16 or 6.25% (SK and vigilante is this too), Town role is 4 in 16 or 25%, and vanilla townie is 11 in 16 or 68.75%

The serial killer and vigilante each dont know who is who so the odds of them hitting eachother is 1 in 20 (they cant hit themselves) or 5%, odds of hitting a Townie role (PO, Doc, VIG, Reporter) are 4 in 20 or 20% and the odds of hitting a mafiate is 5 in 20 or 25% and finally hitting a vanilla townie is 55%

And the odds of the town lynching a vanilla townie are 11 in 21 or 52.3%,for lynching a mafiate 5 in 21 or 23.8%, lynching a townie role is 4 in 21 or 19%.

So given that, we have 3 chances that one of those 4 killing chances will any of the three night roles, with odds being greatest on the mafiate (5 of the 7 night killers and 5 of the 20 (21 for town) total town members.

Correct me if my math is wrong here but the odds of having atleast ONE of those 3 hitting a mafiate is done like this [1-(.75 X .75 X .762)]=.571375 or 57% chance of having ONE of those three killings to be a mafiate kill. thats OVER half. but thats also a .428625 or 42.8% chance of not hitting a mafiate at all with all 3 of those roles. *

Chance of hitting a townie role is 4 chances (except vigilante, his odds are going to be slightly different and wont bother doing) are found like this. [1-(.8 X .8 X .75 X.81)]=.6112 or 61.12% chance of having one of the 4 killing roles killing a townie role. *

*for the statistics part here, I calculated the chance of all 3 missing and then subtracted that from 1 to find the chance of atleast 1 hitting.

for now, my vote stays on Mesden.

[Mesden]

You said I overreacted. That seems to be a fairly popular statement since it was first used. It'd be a bit more convincing had you said it in the first place and not followed the lead of someone else.

Also, you say I'm overreatcing. I'll tell you how I'm not.

1: I only FOS'd you. I'm really not sure about your allignment(The same goes for everyone else) and therefore I only pointed at you. Not condemned you from the gate as you seemed to eb doing to me.

2: How DO you overreact to someone flimsly voting for you? Especially off the basis of that "You defended yourself to early from an accusation that was guaranteed to come up."

3: I used logic of comparing your actions to past occurences. It's not unheard of, doing something that worked for someone else. I didn't say that's exactly what you were doing, just a possibility. S'why I put everything in question form and not blunt statements the same way you did.

4: I'm overreacting in defense of myself. You were overreacting to the fact THAT I defended myself. Even if it was premature, you know for a FACT that it was going to come up, so I stated my point on the fact earlier so I didn't have to make it with my mind bias against someone voting for me.

So, want another reason? I still haven't voted for you and I don't intend to yet. You just seem to come off as proven wrong and are trying to justify it with the word "Overreacting." which is completely an opinion to begin with. Some people might think I didn't stress the issue enough and be more extreme than what I did.

Soooooooooooooooooo, follow B_Real's opinion or follow my reasons. Since this is the catalyst for the game so far, as I knew anything I did would be. Me being an active player with that history and all.

[P-Sleazy]

and if you were a mafiate? would you have reacted any differently?

[Ogianres]

FOS: B_Real
I believe that Mesden's pre-defense was somewhat appropriate, considering her record for being the scum. Even if I did find it suspicious, I'd only put on a FOS due to that not neccesarily being a scum tell. I think B_Real's vote was jumping the gun, but I don't believe that he is scum.

Originally Posted by B_Real

and if you were a mafiate? would you have reacted any differently?

I believe that Mesden has enough experience as mafia to not get nervous and say something like that if she were scum.
VOTE: Catlover
I considered just FOS'ing him, but I believe his votes had very little reasoning, and I think he may be trying to get a bandwagon started. In fact, getting a bandwagon on Mesden would not only be easy, but if she is lynched and is townie, then it's easier to make it look like an honest mistake.

Note: I am a little tired and some of things I'm saying are a teeny bit dis-jointed.

[catlover20410]

Look, the reason I tend to throw around votes with little evidence is to see what reaction I get. This game is, to me at least, about judging people's reactions to things. You can't judge reactions if there's nothing to react TO, now can you?

[Mesden]

Well, Mr.Catlover, I've already given my reactions thoroughly.

You haven't judged any of my reasons by the by.

Also, Ogianres, I appreciate the help, but again, I want my own defense.

Now, B_Real, what's this "If you were mafia?"? That sounds like you know I'm not or atleast don't think it. I will wholeheatedly say that no matter my allignement, I would have stated that defense earlier and responded with an FOS on you because of your rush to vote.

I honestly wouldn't have even FOS'd you if you would have only FOS'd me. As those are just saying, "I want a reason for why you did [Insert event here]."

But no, you are rash enough to cast a death ballot towards me over an opinion. From what I can tell, few people had a problem with me stating my defense against the most obvious starting point in the game early. Also, only a couple believe that I was rash to act against your vote when I only FOS'd and stated what COULD be happening, not what was happening.

Now you and Catlover seem to have it out for me quite hastily, considering everyone elses reaction to this event. Either you both think I'm mafia, one thinks I am and the other wants to push the issue more, you both want to push the issue or you're both mafia. There's the small possibility that one is the SK trying to bandwagon and cause a snowball, but, again, that's the least likely.

Now, my reactions were stated quite clearly after your post, B_Real. I gave numerous reasons and I've explained everything thoroughly. I'm hoping you won't keep this up just off your opinion.

Would you have thought I was being rash if you weren't the one being FOS'd? Others seem to think it was a perfectly calm reaction. I know being semi accused can be a bit agitating, but you're still voting me for "Jumping the Gun." on the MOST obvious occurence that was sure to happen.

I'd suggest you give a better reason, or all you're doing is trying to force a bandwagon on me.

Maybe it's because I'm a good player and the mafia wants me gone sooner rather than later? Maybe you wholeheartedly think that me being defensive early on makes me mafia, even though, given the circumstances, I still don't see how that was a faulty and overly soon action.

Now, B_real, what's it going to be? Vote for me SOLELY off your opinion of someone being hasty or remove the vote after hearing my multiple accounts on the situation?

Right now, I believe CmP, TWG and Ogianres to be agreeing with me and Catlover to be agreeing with you. Now, this could be all 4 of us working as mafia, but is that worth the risk? Or, this could be only two(You and Cat) working to bring down a strong player? But, are you so rash as to do it in the manner at hand?

I'll let the others decide, because I'm off to go play Maple Story for a while.