Mafia: NPF edition

[Sithdarth]

Originally Posted by Daisuke

That's exactly what I said, but he said that the position applies. I just wish I had paid more attention in Mr. Steven's math class.

Sorry I was still doing a crap load of calculations that sadly amounted to a heap of fustration and no real conclusions. Plus you worded it in a significantly more complex manner and I wasn't entirely sure what you meant.

Edit to answer above:

Originally Posted by Thundergod Cid

I still don't quite understand this. Hypothetically speaking, lets consider Daisuke and MoM as a group of two, and sk3l3ton and h4x.m4g3 as another group of two. We could apply the same numerical analysis to both groups and get the same result. Why then, would the Daisuke/MoM group be more likely to contain a mafiate, just because they're together on the list and the other two are isolated unknowns?

Think of it like writing the entire list on a piece of paper and taking it on a dart board with all the known roles written in. Now you lay a bet down with your friend that you'll throw the dart and hit at least one unknown mafia. Where do you aim? Well if you just aim at a single guy hanging out in the middle of known townies you've only got that standard chance. However, if you aim at the group of two unknowns, assuming you can aim that well, you have a slightly better chance that one of those two are a mafiate. (Assume you get two throws for two lynches or a lynch and a vig hit.)

Also, once both are dead, assuming Neyo is the vig, MoM is townie as events would suggest, and neither is mafiate there are only 4 unknown people left and 3 mafiates. Giving us a very good chance of finding the remaining mafiates.

Edit2: Heheh I just realized with those assumptions made there are no longer groups of two. So I did all the crap for nothing. At least it was fun.

[Mesden]

Originally Posted by Sithdarth

Finally, he'd have gotten a last bit of luck with the mafia randomly, more or less, hitting Sillykitty.

That's one of my reasons AGAINST him, honsetly.

You remember the rules for this game, right? The CL dies and the cult can leave, right? The cult hit a mafiate, that mafiate told the rest of the mafia. They hit SK. He's free and on their side now. B_Real pulls off his zany plan after this turn of events, beause he said earlier that the kill on Twid was more or less to rid the game of an inactive.

Sillykitty could've been for recruiting MoM and then the entire B_Real thing could've just been a seemingly convenient plan to get a townie(Catlover) Lynched prior to the unfolding events.

Edit: Worded it a bit off and added the bolded part

[Sithdarth]

Originally Posted by Mesden

You remember the rules for this game, right? The CL dies and the cult can leave, right? The cult hit a mafiate, that mafiate told the rest of the mafia. They hit SK. He's free and on their side now. B_Real pulls off his zany plan after this turn of events, beause he said earlier that the kill on Twid was more or less to rid the game of an inactive.

Yes but SillyKitty died the very night she inducted MoM. So MoM shouldn't have had a chance to tell the Mafia before their role was in. That is of course unless Garud did something not entirely smart and informed MoM of his initiation before getting all roles in first. Also, I'm not entirely sure if the mafia can change targets once they send in their roll either, so I guess that's a possibility too.

I just worked on the assumption Garud waited for all roles to come in before sending out PMs about the cult and that the Mafia hit was locked in once sent.

[Mesden]

Originally Posted by Sithdarth

Yes but SillyKitty died the very night she inducted MoM. So MoM shouldn't have had a chance to tell the Mafia before their role was in. That is of course unless Garud did something not entirely smart and informed MoM of his initiation before getting all roles in first. Also, I'm not entirely sure if the mafia can change targets once they send in their roll either, so I guess that's a possibility too.

I just worked on the assumption Garud waited for all roles to come in before sending out PMs about the cult and that the Mafia hit was locked in once sent.

That's not typically how it works, actually. Normally the cult initiate would be informed as soon as the CL drafted them, allowing them to talk over night. I know this because I was inducted as a member in one game and I WAS the Cult Leader in another.

Also, SillyKitty is fairly active on the intarweb and probably sent her role in faster than the Mafia, since they most likely would've been abating on who to hit. Then the nice prospect of, "Hey, guys. SillyKitty drafted me into the Cult. I don't want to be cult so let's shoot her in the head."

And it happened.

[Sithdarth]

Originally Posted by Mesden

That's not typically how it works, actually. Normally the cult initiate would be informed as soon as the CL drafted them, allowing them to talk over night. I know this because I was inducted as a member in one game and I WAS the Cult Leader in another.

That's about the most assbackwards thing I have ever heard. For one its not like they can't talk during the day. I don't see how a few extra hours at night are going to help. It should have been obvious how much that would effect the game especially with the cult reverting when the leader dies.

But if that is the case then yes SillyKitty dieing that night is a pretty solid nail in his coffin. So Vote:MasterOfMagic. (That was really the only reason I had for not voting for him.)

[MasterOfMagic]

Haha, wow, I still get nothing I can defend agianst well. Yess, I was initiated by Silly Kitty. I was informed of this at 10:38 PM on 6\28. He edited that particular post, killing people off at 11:00 PM that same day. I don't remember if I was on during that 30 minute time span, but it is very likely, I admit.
EDIT: Wasn't edited the same day after all. So, I guess I knew way in advance. Hunh. That is a bad thing.

Also: Mes, remember back when we were in the mafia together? Remember how I said if I was inducted into the Cult, I'd tell them all the mafia members and get everyone else inducted too? Yeah, that would be what I'd always do. Because having a killing + inducting cult is much better than just a killing mafia. The cult can grow, the mafia can't.

[Mesden]

Originally Posted by MasterOfMagic

Haha, wow, I still get nothing I can defend agianst well. Yess, I was initiated by Silly Kitty. I was informed of this at 10:38 PM on 6\28. He edited that particular post, killing people off at 11:00 PM that same day. I don't remember if I was on during that 30 minute time span, but it is very likely, I admit.
EDIT: Wasn't edited the same day after all. So, I guess I knew way in advance. Hunh. That is a bad thing.

Also: Mes, remember back when we were in the mafia together? Remember how I said if I was inducted into the Cult, I'd tell them all the mafia members and get everyone else inducted too? Yeah, that would be what I'd always do. Because having a killing + inducting cult is much better than just a killing mafia. The cult can grow, the mafia can't.

How can you trust that plan? With a Vig, SK and lynching, the CL could die early before the rest is inducted and split your mafia, making your chances of winning horrible.

That's 5 nights and days filled with kills you have to hope before it works. VERY illogical. Given the option in this game to defect from the cult, I would have killed the CL, because the other is blind faith that you could do it without the Cl dying.

Edit to Add: Also, when You and I were mafia, in the event the CL died halfway through, I had the power to bring him back. In our game, there was no actual risk in the afformentioned error. In this game, the CL could die and you couldn't bring her back, completely messing up everything. And between the Serial Killer, Vigilante and Town Lynch, it would've been far too much of a risk.

Edit

Originally Posted by Sithdarth

That's about the most assbackwards thing I have ever heard. For one its not like they can't talk during the day. I don't see how a few extra hours at night are going to help. It should have been obvious how much that would effect the game especially with the cult reverting when the leader dies.

Well, the logic behind this is that say the cult drafts a role. It lets them then be all cultisty.

Lemme pull up a scenario for you.

The CL targets the Vig. The vig is thinking about targetting the CL. Well...how would that scene have played out? There's a bit of realism here where, well, the vig would shoot him after being drafted?

Well, the Cult Leader does his work at night. He goes and drafts someone at night. So they should know they are cult AT NIGHT.

[MasterOfMagic]

Originally Posted by Mesden

How can you trust that plan? With a Vig, SK and lynching, the CL could die early before the rest is inducted and split your mafia, making your chances of winning horrible.

That's 5 nights and days filled with kills you have to hope before it works. VERY illogical. Given the option in this game to defect from the cult, I would have killed the CL, because the other is blind faith that you could do it without the Cl dying.

Edit to Add: Also, when You and I were mafia, in the event the CL died halfway through, I had the power to bring him back. In our game, there was no actual risk in the afformentioned error. In this game, the CL could die and you couldn't bring her back, completely messing up everything. And between the Serial Killer, Vigilante and Town Lynch, it would've been far too much of a risk.

Well, that's all well and good, you've proven my line of thinking was wrong.

But, I hope you didn't miss the point I was trying to make. I wouldn't have told the mafia who the CL was. Maybe that would've been a stupid move, but it would've been the one I made.

[Mesden]

Originally Posted by MasterOfMagic

Well, that's all well and good, you've proven my line of thinking was wrong.

But, I hope you didn't miss the point I was trying to make. I wouldn't have told the mafia who the CL was. Maybe that would've been a stupid move, but it would've been the one I made.

So, you're telling me out of all your buddies(Possibly), they wouldn't have seen the ere in this plan? Sorry, but that's not cutting it, MoM.

Also, I CAN NOT trust the "I wouldn't" line and you know that.

[MasterOfMagic]

I never said it was this rock hard defense that I can provide proof for. Honestly, its got just as much behind it as your attack on me. *shrug*

I'm merely telling you what my line of thought on these things are. I can't prove it. You just have to think about what you know of me (probably not that much...), and decide if you believe me or not. Obviously you don't so far. Ah well.