My Little Pony: Friendship is Mafia

[Fenris]

Vote count!

Nikose 1
Sifright

Sifright 2
rpgdemon
Hawk

rpgdemon 2
Ryanderman
Bard

greed 3
Aldurin
Revolving Ocelot
Nikose

Karesh 18,000,000,080,000,062
Karesh x 18,000,000,080,000,062

IT IS NOW NIGH

just kiddin

[Sifright]

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

Suspicious actions: Pointing out a bad plan.

Completely not suspicious actions: posting walls of text that force those who disagree into submission because it's easier to agree then put up with 3 posts in a row that are more essays, from a University student who's studying the art of Writing Much and Saying Nothing.

This is the man that we all are siding with here. I'm going to point that out, and remind you all again, this is the man that made arguments more illogical than mine, and continuously bashed my own- Arguments that Sifright agrees with, actually.

Despite how 'scummy' it apparently is to enjoy a game and continue acting as I normally do [That is, silly and casually accusatory], I'm actually writing a post with some seriousness to say, He's clearly the SK and stands out like a sore thumb, and if he survives tonight, we have a worse than 1 in 4 chance to lose one of our 3 power roles [Vig, PO, BG].


TL;DR Doing the maths after this point here:


Wait I'm actually going to do the math for that.


Currently 18 Players; assume 5 mafiates, 1 SK, 11 Town, 1 confirmed immune town.

Mafia kills 1 of 12 people. 3 of those are likely power roles[BG, Vig, PO].
Ergo, Mafia swing has a 1 in 4 chance of hitting a power role.

SK targets among the 16 players, and has a 1 in roughly 6 chance of hitting a friendly role, or a 1 in ~3 chance of hitting a mafiate right now.

Now Back to the good Part [Logic]:

So, NO, Town power roles, do not just hit Karesh tonight. Sifright was a better vote target as a way of confirming and not wasting night kills, BUT EVEN SO we could completely ignore Sifright and Karesh, have night roles act freely as they are meant to, so the Bodyguard could defend anyone they wished, Vig could swing and have a chance to hit a legitimate target, and PO could investigate, I dunno, ANYONE [Like Me, or Ryanderman, or Snake, or Sifright.]

The thing that leads me MOST against Snake was his continual Overthinking of Karesh's role when there's no reason to continue down that path. RO did that earlier today* [Game day] and Snake has been doing it continuously. There's no logic to "Aha you have fallen into my trap of voting for someone voting randomly and joining a bandwagon" "But what if Fenris knew we'd know that we knew that he chose to..." Snake is smarter than that. He's making purposeful bad faith arguements against Karesh, the only role that HE CANNOT KILL, and when he could not lead a lynch, opted to lead ALL THE TOWN'S NIGHT ACTIONS against Karesh.

If there is a scummier action then encouraging the entire town to blast Karesh, and waste every night action we have?

Snake is making arguments that would make Descartes proud.

Saying snake wanted all night actions targeted on Karesh, in an attempt to get people to lynch him. You lied right THERE.

[Sifright]

Holy shit guys I've just realised something

Unvote:nikose

Zacora in the show was feared by EVERYpony. They all thought she was some kind of "evil enchantress" It's possible she has the miller effect listed by http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Miller Infact given she is the perenial outsider of MLP FIM it makes perfect sense.

Hoooo shit.

[Sifright]

This just made things ridiculously confusing for me now.

[Revising Ocelot]

Limited knowledge here, but do Millers have to act like they're silly and suspicious or is that just pseudo-RPing? All I know is that they just scan as Mafia by the PO, when they're actually Town.

[Sifright]

Okay I'm going to get Nikose voting history and mentions of power roles up to see how it jibes with his roleclaim also apart from his lying about snake the other thing that makes me leery is the idea of town power roles outside of the elements of Harmony. Whi'lst I am at it i'm going to post up shit that favors my case against RPGDEMON.

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

Alduin was culted night 0.

RPG is serial Killer.

Snake is probably going to die by mafia kill night one.

Bob the merc is Cult leader.

Okay So far looking pretty odd.

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

What role would you see him in, beyond SK? He always talks about finding Mafia, doubted the existence of an SK despite there clearly being one [Cluckles], and maybe most damning of all, did try to see a town outcry against Karesh, the only confirmed unkillable were he an SK.

It seems logical to me that he's the SK. He fits the role perfectly.

Overly concerned about finding the SK early on. SK and Town are nominally aligned to begin with because if the mafia get to 50%+ the SK loses. Mafia are more worried about killing off the SK than town are.




END OF NIKOSE======================

Start OF RPG========================

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

Furthermore, reading your plan again Sif, it's completely full of holes, and benefits scum more than I originally thought.

You're saying, "Hey, Investigator. Either I get away with being scum, or you die tomorrow. Silence means I live, coming forward and saying something means I die."

If you really thought of yourself as expendable, you'd say that silence means you die, coming forward means you live. That way you're not holding the investigator hostage for your life.

So let's look at what my plan was. Day 1 I role claim and confirm a Fluttershy claim from Karesh. MY plan was the PO investigates me and SAYS NOTHING to confirm i'm town makes things ambiguous but on the other hoof, the PO doesn't have to reveal I'm mafia straight away even if I am but putting my self out there has made me a huge target. So Day 1 if i'm mafia he knows one confirmed mafia straight away later on in the game he can then reveal everything he knows getting me mega lynched quick as you please. There is no reason why my plan if i was mafia and thus lying would 'force' the Pos hoof and Mischaracterising it as that to cast more suspicion on me made me wary as fuck.


More RPGDEMON QUOTE

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

Like, what you've done right now has tied your life to the investigator's. Whatever happens to you, happens to him, and that benefits scum, and isn't how an "expendable townie" would think. If you wanted to be expendable, you'd set it up so that the investigator survives when you die.

Not true at all what my preposed plan would do is give the investigator the ability to prove both my self and Karesh or If mafia the knowledge of one mafiate straight away with the choice to reveal now or later on the only holes in my plan at the time were the lack of knowledge about 'watcher' roles which snake pointed out to me. The idea that the PO or Doctor is lynched Day one is pretty unlikely.


More RPGdemon

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

I do want to know why you'd have said THAT though. More than anything, it makes no sense to me.

ESPECIALLY considering earlier you were all, "No one tell anyone to target anything! It's bad and scummy, since they can just watch someone and see who the power player is!" But now you're all for it?



And now you set the town up in an incredibly awkward position. You have been acting suspicious today, with the suggestion to Vig-kill Karesh. And now, anyone who calls you out on that, is likely to be scum, by what you said here.

If you are town: You're playing it to give the scum the advantage here, since you don't realize that you made a blundering statement that does incriminate you. If you're scum, then you've now set yourself up to make sure that no townie targets you, since "Well, he's a townie, and once he dies, they'll think I'm suspicious! Snake said so!"

vote: Snake

I'm willing to move my vote if you can allay these suspicions, but for now, that's how it's staying.

Misconstrueing Snakes actions and again trying to cover for Nikose.

Snake points how high activity posting and being killed allows us to work around those who were cautious and reckless with him RPGdemons response is to go "Fuck you snake it's lynch time"

even more RPGDEMON

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

Actually, thinking on it, the whole Fawful thing is probably more suspicious than the whole Snake thing. Mainly because he was active at night, and hasn't posted here, but wasn't replaced for inactivity.

Unvote:Snake
Vote: Fawful

I still think Snake is suspicious, but Fawful is more immediately suspicious.

"I DONT WANT TO KILL INACTIVES HE TELLING PEOPLE A LIE ABOUT ME WANTING TO KILL INACTIVES" You know except when you vote for them and try and get them killed sure.

Followed with a fenris post stating

Originally Posted by Fenris

I need to clear up some misconceptions.

The people I replaced quit.

I have yet to prune inactives.

I also do not count merely submitting night roles as an active participant in my threads. Any of you who have ever played a game of mine ever should know this.

After that Aldurin went all derpy hooves and killed applejack

[Sifright]

Nikose Voting pattern:

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

Oron is not being anywhere NEAR QUIET ENOUGH NOW. D:<

Friendshipping the hell out of: Oron~!

Status: Oron, Unknown

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

BARD IS SPEAKING AGAIN

UNFRIENDING: ORON

FRIENDSHIPPING THE HELL OUT OF: BARD

Status: Bard Unknown

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

UNFRIENDSHIPPING: BARD

VOTE: SMARTY

BITCHES I DON'T NEED REASONS IT'S DAY 1.

Smarty Dead partially confimed as Cult leader, mafia have no way to know that he is ahead of time.

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

See I had said that I was going to take those three talking and not being punished as evidence of some sort of masonry or mafia group, and since sifright roleclaimed without evidence and is apparently still in the game, I'm actually kind of partial to testing my theory here.

I support the day 1 lynch of Sifright to check if he's lying, or of Geminex to see if they are a scum group.

UNVOTE: SMARTY

I am in support of Geminex being our SACRIFICE, SACRIFICE- if Geminex comes up clean then Sifright would be a confirmed one shot PO, and bodyguard should cover him tonight while he gets his 1 investigation off.

You know unless I've completely misread somewhere on something.

So with that in mind I'll VOTE: GEMINEX

Status : Dead, He was applejack a town body guard role.

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

If you are honestly trying to suggest that I am smart enough to be a puppetmaster

UNVOTE: GEMINEX

VOTE: BOOKWORM

Because like, I have a reputation as being the town idiot here.

Status: Bookworm Dead, Town cutiemark crusader GO mooned.

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

I think something we can all get behind is

UNVOTE: Whoever I was voting for

VOTE: IHMN

Status: IHM Unknown (roleclaiming Ditsy doo)

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

UNVOTE: IHMN

VOTE: SIFRIGHT

Status: Sifright (role claiming Doctor Whooves and role confirming Karesh as fluttershy)

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

And I doubt his claim.

Also, Snake- The fact that you've switched tactics to personal insults means I literally have no choice but to:

VOTE: SNAKE

Cause your attitude is pissing me off.

Status: Snake Zacora Dead, double killed by both SK and mafia town aligned.

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

Clearly an editted post!

VOTE:VERIFIEDZ!

Status: Verfiedz Unknown

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

Eh, it's more an unwritten rule on the whole editting post- and his brother handled most of it. I'm actually okay with giving him epic slack. [He's like not even a teen yet.]

UNVOTE: VERI Cause I'd actually feel bad for trying to get him lynched. He's still just a little, fat baby.

Originally Posted by Nikose Tyris

VOTE: SOLID SNAKE

We've seen through you, Seen your true colors.

[Sifright]

So thats 4 non mafia the very least confirmed that Nikose has voted for. obviously when thinking about it my self i'm bumping that number to 5.

Things that worry, high number of players that are making one or two posts a game day and then nothing more. In that list is Oron, Bard, Ryanderman, Greed and Gregness.

So thats five there. I'm working on the assumption that we have five mafia and one SK. Cult were slaughtered night one which is basically a miracle. Chances are one of those five has to be town but they are all equally inactive. RPGDEMON is scummy for the reasons i've listed previously at this point i'm not certain what to do. I also Feel there is a good chance nikose is the SK, with that in mind I'm not going to vote to lynch him.

Unvote: Whoever

Vote:RPGDEMON


HOS: NIKOSE
HOS: Bard
HOS: Gregness
HOS: Ryanderman
HOS: Greed
HOS: Oron

[Sifright]

I also feel the need to point out the difference between voting 100% inactives off who aren't doing anything on the ENTIRE forum and inactives who are active else where on the forum it's quite a large difference.

[rpgdemon]

Originally Posted by Sifright

"I DONT WANT TO KILL INACTIVES HE TELLING PEOPLE A LIE ABOUT ME WANTING TO KILL INACTIVES" You know except when you vote for them and try and get them killed sure.

Again, you're aiming to lie and mislead. What was the point of posting Fenris's post? Are you implying that I'm clairvoyant, and should have known that Fenris would have told us, after I posted, that he hadn't replaced inactives yet? What is your angle? If you're town, and you think I'm scum, you're playing absolutely terribly. You don't try to twist facts to make them fit what you want, you base what you want off of facts. I legitimately can't believe you when you say that you're not scum, and every time you try to leverage "Backup", you just make it more obvious.

Who are you even backing up to? People all start bandwagonning on me, and you go, "Okay, well, there's as much can be said about me or him being scummy as can be said! We need to follow other leads!", without addressing the huge list of points that I made against you at all. Then when people start voting off of me, you decide that logic isn't a good way to play this game, and to start putting your spin on what happened.

I was going based off the idea that Fawful had acted at night, and still hadn't said a single thing in the thread, making him highly suspicious. And it seemed as if Fenris had replaced people for inactivity, so the fact that Fawful was still around was suspicious. Fenris posted later saying that Fawful wasn't necessarily active, and then Aldurin happened.