My Little Pony: Friendship is Mafia

[rpgdemon]

Originally Posted by Sifright

Things to worry about. Mafia can quick hammer near the deadline to ensure that a townie gets hit by increasing the votes on a town until it's the highest but not enough to ensure auto lynch. Basically unless we have at least 7 people voting on one person chances are mafia will lynch a townie.

If that happened, it would be incredibly obvious, at least, and we'd have a list. Granted, I feel as if it's already been happening, considering the number of times around 3-5ish people have kept going, "Oh, wait, new target? Okay, switch.", with little intermediate.

Unvote: Sifright
Vote: Nikose

[Sifright]

Yea I don't understand the jump to greed. I mean I know you won't like this but out of all the targets objectively speaking Myself RPGdemon and Nikose are the most likely candidates. I don't understand why every one is jumping on greed. What makes it especially confusing is at least two of the people on greed are town.

Edit: i'm aware i voted for greed but I was going to slave my vote to what ever karesh voted but given gregnesses roleclaim I think Nikose is much more likely to be mafia.

[rpgdemon]

If Nik is actually the PO, it'll at least give us information on Gregness.

Baaaaaaad information.

[Ryanderman]

I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

[Sifright]

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

You know what I think you are right I think he is the SK, Which is exactly why i've no reason to go after him. The only people who will be massively concerned with that at the moment will be Mafia, because he has the power to weaken them quite a bit. Town needs to be more focused on murdering mafia at the moment.

[Ryanderman]

Originally Posted by Sifright

You know what I think you are right I think he is the SK, Which is exactly why i've no reason to go after him. The only people who will be massively concerned with that at the moment will be Mafia, because he has the power to weaken them quite a bit. Town needs to be more focused on murdering mafia at the moment.

Yeah, but my concern is that while he can hurt the mafia, he isn't going to be trying to right now. I don't know.


This next is me thinking out loud.

How would he think? He needs you dead, and for you to have been lying for him to have a chance to win. So if he can't kill you today, he'll do so tonight. But then, when you turn out to have been telling the truth... he won't be able to convince anyone to lynch Karesh, and he won't be able to risk trying to kill him at night... so his only option will be to try to draw with the town by being the last alive, along with Karesh.

How would he accomplish that goal? He needs to eliminate other night kill roles so they can't kill him, and try to talk his way out of being lynched. A tall order. But the only way to have a chance to talk his way out, is to avoid being proven to be the SK.

There are two ways I can think of he could be proven to be SK aside from lynching:
1) The PO investigates him, roleclaims, and outs him
2) Gregness roleblocks him, we see the SK had no action at night, and Gregness confirms his roleblock.

So he has two goals, eliminate night kill roles (Vig and mafia), and eliminate the investigative roles. If there are 5 mafiates, then at maximum kill rate, it would take until tomorrow night to kill all the mafiates. (1 lynch today, 1 Vig kill tonight, 1 SK kill tonight, 1 lynch tomorrow, 1 Vig/SK kill tomorrow night) That's two nights in which investigative roles can out him, and the mafia and vig can kill him.

I think he's going to need to try to go after those he can hit to help his chances immediately. Hitting mafia has a delayed benefit, and leaves him more exposed for the next two nights. I think he's going to have to go after town (Vig, PO, and Gregness).

While weakening the mafia for end game is a thing I'm sure the SK would love to do, he has far more pressing immediate survival issues to deal with right now.

Yeah, the SK isn't that much of a threat to the town overall, but I think he's going to feel that he needs to target town. And so he's going to weaken the town, which will help the mafia, which is a big threat to the town.

I think I'll keep my vote where it is for the time being.

[Sifright]

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

Yeah, but my concern is that while he can hurt the mafia, he isn't going to be trying to right now. I don't know.


This next is me thinking out loud.

How would he think? He needs you dead, and for you to have been lying for him to have a chance to win. So if he can't kill you today, he'll do so tonight. But then, when you turn out to have been telling the truth... he won't be able to convince anyone to lynch Karesh, and he won't be able to risk trying to kill him at night... so his only option will be to try to draw with the town by being the last alive, along with Karesh.

How would he accomplish that goal? He needs to eliminate other night kill roles so they can't kill him, and try to talk his way out of being lynched. A tall order. But the only way to have a chance to talk his way out, is to avoid being proven to be the SK.

There are two ways I can think of he could be proven to be SK aside from lynching:
1) The PO investigates him, roleclaims, and outs him
2) Gregness roleblocks him, we see the SK had no action at night, and Gregness confirms his roleblock.

So he has two goals, eliminate night kill roles (Vig and mafia), and eliminate the investigative roles. If there are 5 mafiates, then at maximum kill rate, it would take until tomorrow night to kill all the mafiates. (1 lynch today, 1 Vig kill tonight, 1 SK kill tonight, 1 lynch tomorrow, 1 Vig/SK kill tomorrow night) That's two nights in which investigative roles can out him, and the mafia and vig can kill him.

I think he's going to need to try to go after those he can hit to help his chances immediately. Hitting mafia has a delayed benefit, and leaves him more exposed for the next two nights. I think he's going to have to go after town (Vig, PO, and Gregness).

While weakening the mafia for end game is a thing I'm sure the SK would love to do, he has far more pressing immediate survival issues to deal with right now.

Yeah, the SK isn't that much of a threat to the town overall, but I think he's going to feel that he needs to target town. And so he's going to weaken the town, which will help the mafia, which is a big threat to the town.

I think I'll keep my vote where it is for the time being.

Well if he does kill me during the night he does, he is going to be one very disappointed bunny...

Also the chances of us killing, mafia at the rate you described are so astonishingly low I don't even know how to describe it. more likely there will be mix of town and mafia kills during the next two day/night cycles and killing some one we can almost confirm to be mafia with our day lynch is far more important for now. We need the confirmation that a day lynch will bring on Nikose to find out more information.

[IHateMakingNames]

HoS: Ryanderman

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

so his only option will be to try to draw with the town by being the last alive, along with Karesh.

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

Yeah, the SK isn't that much of a threat to the town overall, but I think he's going to feel that he needs to target town. And so he's going to weaken the town, which will help the mafia, which is a big threat to the town.

[Ryanderman]

Originally Posted by Sifright

Well if he does kill me during the night he does, he is going to be one very disappointed bunny...

Also the chances of us killing, mafia at the rate you described are so astonishingly low I don't even know how to describe it. more likely there will be mix of town and mafia kills during the next two day/night cycles and killing some one we can almost confirm to be mafia with our day lynch is far more important for now. We need the confirmation that a day lynch will bring on Nikose to find out more information.

Exactly. The rate I gave was extremely optomistic, from the SK's point of view. If the SK also believes it's going to take a lot longer to kill the Mafia off, no matter what he does, he's going to have even more incentive to target town, to target threats he can eliminate quickly, and who can end his chances just as quickly.

The point of lynching Nikose to get more information, to help in finding the rest of the mafiates has merit though. But how long do you want to wait to get the SK? 1 day? 2? Every day we wait is a chance for him to hit town, and I seriously think that's what he's going to do.

If we lynch Nikose today, and the vig kills rpgdemon tonight, then we get the info we need from Nikose, and the SK gets one more chance to kill a townie.

If we lynch the rpgdemon today, and the vig kills Nikose tonight, then we've prevented the SK from killing any more town, and we still get the info we need from Nikose. I think that's the better option.

[rpgdemon]

Originally Posted by Ryanderman

I just had an interesting thought. I was thinking about the different paths to victory for the town, mafia, and SK, and came to the realization that the SK is in serious trouble, and that he has most likely realized he's in serious trouble. Specifically, if Sifright and Karesh are telling the truth, then the only way for the SK to win is to get the town to lynch Karesh. If Karesh really is night invincible, the SK can't kill him. And if he's lying just a little bit and is a night bomb, the SK can't kill him and still win. If it ends up with just the SK and Karesh left at the end of the game, that'd end in a draw, I think.

So the SK has to convince the town to lynch Karesh. But there's no way the town is going to lynch such a powerful roleclaim without first checking its veracity by lynching Sifright. We've been over that ad nauseum, and if we were to lynch one of them, it'd definitely be Sifright, no question. (Not that I'm advocating that)

Unless the SK wants to take a huge gamble and try to target Karesh in the night, his only option, as far as I can see, is to kill Sifright, and hope with all his might that he was lying. Then the town will lynch Karesh next opportunity it gets.

The SK has two options. He can kill Sifright during the night, or try to get the town to do it during the day. During the night would make sense, but I can see the appeal it would have to the SK to try to get the town to lynch Sifright, so he doesn't have to use his kill on him.

There is one player whose actions fit my assessment of the SK: rpgdemon. I think it was Karesh who observed previously that rpgdemon has been pushing Sifright, because he desperately wants Sifright to be lying. That fits the profile of an SK who has realized that it's the only way for him to have a chance to win.

I know there's been speculation that the SK may try to help the town for the next couple nights, to weaken the mafia. But I really do think that if the SK survives this day, he's going to kill Sifright tonight. He needs to prove Sifright is lying to have a chance to win. And so I think, that while Nikose is almost certainly scummy - and if not the SK, almost certainly mafia - a single mafiate is less a threat today than the SK. We can kill Nikose tonight or tomorrow. I think we need to take down the SK.

Unvote: Nikose

Vote: rpgdemon

So, you're saying that I'm the SK, and instead of trying to kill the person who's unkillable, I'm going to base my chances of winning on getting information that doesn't change the game state at all?

There is so much wrong with that it's not even funny. The logic is one massive gaping hole, and if you can't see it, either you're scum and trying to pin blame on someone else, or the town loses anyway.

There is literally no reason for an SK to target Sifright, either for lynching or for a night kill. It doesn't increase their position any, except if Sif flips scum. But if he doesn't, then not only is nothing gained, but now a huge thing is lost, as the town will never lynch Karesh, since Sif/Karesh would probably be telling the truth.

In fact, lynching Sif means a 50/50 shot at the SK losing the game on the spot, and nothing changing about the game state.

I'm not dumb. I wouldn't do something that has a 50% chance of me losing on the spot, and a 50% chance of absolutely nothing changing. Making for a lynch on Sif is the worst move possible for the SK, which is another reason it's a good move for the town. Even if he is town, we get a guaranteed townie, and a guarantee that the SK can't win. If he's scum, we get two scummates, and the SK still has to worry about another player being a bomb/bulletproof.

If I were SK, I wouldn't want to verify anything. I would ignore the case which means that the game is unwinnable, and assume that Sif or Karesh is lying. Looking for proof that he's lying wouldn't change the facts at all, so getting proof that he's lying wouldn't help me, and if it proved that he's telling the truth, then I'd have just lost the game as Karesh would never be killed.

I'm actually rather insulted by how much of a poor logician/rationalist that you think I am, that you think that your "conclusion" is something that I'd act upon. Either that, or, you're the SK and trying to kill the person who proposed a plan that makes the game unwinnable for you.

Unvote: Nik
Vote: Ryanderman