Hatland Mafia

[Revising Ocelot]

...see, all this bickering back and forth is why sticking with a proven anti-hatter is the smart(y) choice.

[Solid Snake]

ON TO SERIOUS STUFF

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

Since I'm playing, I'm gonna go ahead and say, the replacement thing was not a gambit at winning in any way. You can treat it as if it is or isn't, and keep judging based off of whatever you like, but it was entirely just being tired of being told that since I'm confident, I'm acting suspiciously.

Well since you're deadset on misrepresenting practically everything I've done so far as following under an umbrella of 'suspicion,' it's only fair that I be allowed to retort in kind. Personally, I haven't come to a definitive conclusion as to whether you're Scum or Town and to be frank I have bigger fish to fry, but since I do find your behavior somewhat inappropriate, I'll voice my objection to it.

To be blunt: Your enthusiasm in quickly rescinding your threat to abandon the game is even more suspicious to me than the threat itself. Everyone gets frustrated sometimes in Mafia (though I find your frustration at merely being accused of being scum due to confidence well overblown; what's strange is that I haven't been remotely aggressive against you compared to others, and you seemed very insulted by commentary from me that was comparatively timid.) There's even a history of folks threatening to quit when they're offended or when they feel their input is entirely disregarded.

But even Sifright last game, for all his faults and foibles, actually stuck with his stupid suicide threat longer than you did. It seems like the moment your threat to be Replaced was called out as kind of dumb, you immediately backed down. Maybe this should actually increase my level of faith that you're Town under your hopelessly flawed generalization of my arguments against you, because after all, you certainly weren't expressing confidence by abandoning your train of thought so quickly.

Beyond this, I don't appreciate you and Earl's repeated exaggerated misstatements regarding my positions. If I offer a balanced, nuanced articulation of my positions and offer evidence in support of said position, you can at least argue against the actual position I articulated as opposed to deliberately misconstruing the argument in a way that lets you badger an imaginary strawman.

Originally Posted by Gregness

Like, what's more likely, that rpg has this great meta-strategy of playing timid as town and outgoing as scum that just happens to line up with his role assignments thus far or that he simply is gaining confidence along with experience? The simple answer is the best answer.

Either possibility is feasible, though you're misconstruing my point regarding RPG from last game: I don't believe it'd be a conscious meta-strategy on his part, more a subconscious reaction to a comparative dearth of information and the lack of clarity that results in a Town role as opposed to a Scum role, in which he'd enjoy comparative clarity regarding his objectives.

It's worth noting that I've never once pressured RPG to the extent he appears to believe I have. He wasn't a target when I began the day. He became something more of a target due to his over-defensiveness and the fact that he apparently was so offended by a mere theory regarding his play that he's entered into a crusading mode, hellbent on trying to convince everyone I'm scum.

Like, here's a third possibility for you to toy with: Maybe there is no correlation between RPG's confidence and his level of play, and maybe RPG really is merely feeling more confident due to experience, but maybe RPG is an anti-Town role anyway, and maybe RPG's simply afraid that I'm left alive I'll continue to aggressively pursue him as I did last game under the pretense. In other words, RPG's over-defensiveness at the mere mention of the accusation suggests that he fears the logical consequence of the accusation.
Another way to put it: RPG could have happened to have been assigned anti-Town roles in his second and third games, and if so, it'd really irk him if he'd never have the chance to express himself confidently without being accused of potentially being anti-Town, whether the correlation exists or is based on a faulty premise.

In D1 in particular, I like to toss around accusations not so much to gauge the accuracy of the accusation itself (particularly since there's so little evidence in this game to work with) but rather to gauge responses to the accusations. Who casually lets it slide? Who becomes over-defensive? Who appeals to intellect? Who appeals to emotion? Who reacts differently to criticism in this game than in previous games? Is there a reason why they might behave differently, or might they have been assigned a different role? Etc.

More in a few moments.

[Solid Snake]

Originally Posted by Bard The 5th LW

Okay he's back to normal now.

Pft. When I was ever not 'normal' (by Snake standards) this game?
Actually, this game's D1 so far has been closer to my traditional D1 performances than last game was, last game was more the aberration because I wasn't around when things started.

Originally Posted by Fenris

tbh it's probably because Snake has put this entire game in a "compare everything people are doing to everything people have done" sort of mindset.

Yes, let's pretend that Snake and Snake alone is the only player in this game with the capability of dictating the entire game, that way you can absolve yourselves and place all responsibility upon him for anything you dare dislike.

If you don't like the way things are going, stop responding with mere vague and ambiguous one-sentence posts that have added little to the conversation and actively change the dynamics, instead of passive-aggressively blaming me for 'ruining' your game. I'm one of 21 people here. Yes, I'm loud and obnoxious, but I haven't posted nearly as many Walls as I've been accused of, and I haven't controlled the flow of conversation in such a way as to prevent you all from going off on whatever tangent you'd like.

Originally Posted by Geminex

I... kinda see your logic here, but really? I never said I'd be open to a policy lynch on you. When I said 'policy lynch', I was referring to the Earl/Kerensky argument of "He writes too much, he's unproductive'. That's what a policy lynch is, isn't it? One that's based on playstyle rather than concrete suspicions.

Yes, but you see, that's exactly my point. Advocating or even passively abiding by a D1 policy lynch against someone for 'talking too much' D1 is almost as bad as No Lynching. It's wasting a critical lynch for Town and eliminating someone for whom you (by your own admission) possess minimal suspicions.

Like, here's the thing, Gem: If you're town? Your lynch is the only weapon you have. Sure, you might possess a power role or something, but at the end of the day the Town wins or loses games based largely on how effectively they use their lynch. So, if RPG or Earl wants to lynch me because they are actually suspicious of me for some reason? I'd obviously disagree with them, but at least they're justified in possibly being a pro-Town advocate by pushing a lynch on who they actually believe is Scum.

On the other hand, if you're like "I don't actually believe he's suspicious, but I won't oppose a policy lynch on him because I believe he's unproductive," that's a terrible attitude to have regarding a lynch. If you're Town, you need to either support or oppose a lynch. If you have mixed feelings, express your reservations or your doubts or why you see 'both possibilities,' but don't just rest on the intellectually lazy and anti-Town notion that you won't oppose a lynch of someone you think is probably a Townie for "policy" reasons.

For that matter, given my level of experience in Mafia, if you truly believed I was A) more likely than not Town, but B) liable for being lynched anyway due to an unproductive strategy, you would (as Town) attempt to rationalize and reason with me to drop the strategy, instead of passively noting you 'wouldn't oppose' a Snake lynch 'on policy grounds' but you think I'm Town anyway.

The former is a pro-Town way to combat the problem head-on and save the lynch for someone you harbor stronger suspicions against. The latter is an anti-Town strategy that simultaneously attempts to absolve you from personal liability or suspicion for my lynch once I flip, while nonetheless basically handing the keys over to Town and saying "You want him dead? He's all yours." And that's something Scum is much more likely to do than Town, for all the reasons I've already articulated.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Originally Posted by Solid Snake

[COLOR="Magenta"]



Yes, but you see, that's exactly my point. Advocating or even passively abiding by a D1 policy lynch against someone for 'talking too much' D1 is almost as bad as No Lynching. It's wasting a critical lynch for Town and eliminating someone for whom you (by your own admission) possess minimal suspicions.

Like, here's the thing, Gem: If you're town? Your lynch is the only weapon you have. Sure, you might possess a power role or something, but at the end of the day the Town wins or loses games based largely on how effectively they use their lynch. So, if RPG or Earl wants to lynch me because they are actually suspicious of me for some reason? I'd obviously disagree with them, but at least they're justified in possibly being a pro-Town advocate by pushing a lynch on who they actually believe is Scum.

Quite right.
To be clear I make a policy of not involving myself in the day one lynch because I can never make my mind up about anything so soon. But not lynching is just outright silly of us.
Barring the strangest of circumstances, we must lynch somebody.
I just don't wanna be the one to pick who it is, that's all.

[P-Sleazy]

Originally Posted by Bard The 5th LW

Okay I've read most of the backlog, and I'm putting Karesh on my FOS for the moment, because she's being odd. I'd put Shyria there, but Shyria hasn't posted much and you're justified in posting silly shit on your first few posts on D1.

Still not changing my vote for the moment though.

Karesh is a chick? I always thought you were a dude.

[Solid Snake]

Originally Posted by Aldurin

For my accusation against Snake, I do believe it is well-founded in the fact that Snake doesn't even seem to be trying to be helpful. His logic circles and calling everybody out at once is more disorienting than anything and I do think he may be trying to talk himself into such a strong pile of confusion that nobody can make a strong case against him not helping town.

"Calling everyone out at once?" So you think attempting to increase activity by basically articulating my feelings on everyone in a half-joking manner, without even actually accusing anyone of being 'Scum' or 'Town,' in hopes of sparking conversations is a 'call-out?' What?

Also: In exactly what way am I not attempting to "be helpful?" I've articulated my thoughts and suspicions in several cohesive posts, which is more than at least half the people in this game can say.

Eh, I'm cool with your Snake Conspiracy Theories because you're most likely going to be next to the firing range once I flip, but I'd strongly advise you find a way to state your case against me in a more factually substantive manner so you won't look so terrible after the fact. At least RPG's advanced arguments that could be construed as pro-Town lobbying against a suspected threat and not just saying "I totally dislike to read and I'm going to ambiguously call out Snake for being 'unhelpful'."

Here's a How Snake Plays Mafia Protip, though: I am almost always less controversial and 'in-your-face' provocative as Scum than as Town because when I'm a member of the Mafiate my scummates usually do not want me rabble-rousing. There's absolutely no excuse whatsoever for a Mafiate to sacrifice himself D1 when most D1 lynches are no-evidence crapshoots. If you truly believe I'm a Mafiate, you'd have to believe

...Or you'd have to do what Nikose basically did last game, which is to argue that I must be the SK because my behavior doesn't fit into Mafiate norms but you think I'm 'anti-Town' anyway. I'm often accused of being the SK as Town because it's difficult to reconcile my behavior as consistent with belonging to a scumteam or by any means coordinated with them.

I mean, look at the implications of me being Mafia now: if I were Scum, by rabble-rousing RPG and Earl it'd make it much easier for Town to expect that they're Town upon flipping an anti-Town role, right? And while that sentiment certainly could be WIFOMed to hell and back, the additional evidence alone is a boon to Town that Scum simply wouldn't want to give them D1. Remember, Scum generally likes to lurk, act comparatively inactive, and let Townies hunt themselves D1.

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

I was thinking on it even more, and I'm definitely feeling more comfortable (More CONFIDENT OMG) in voting Snake or Sifright. By saying that showing confidence = scum, they're trying to get me to theorize less, post less, and play less, which means worse things for the town.

Yes, RPG, the whole world revolves around you! Clearly my totally abhorrently Scum strategy was simply to shut you up with the 'confidence' argument, because I knew from the get-go that RPG was the one Townie I had to be completely and utterly afraid of speaking up. I wanted to stop your theories and even make you threaten to ragequit (because I totally knew you'd ragequit) because I was cowering in fear at what chaos you could cause.
...In fact, your application of logic there similarly applies to last game, which is why I was totally Scum in MLP Mafia, and why my efforts to accuse you of acting differently in being 'more confident' there was actually a trick to eliminate your participation as a Townie!

...Wait, you were actually the SK in MLP Mafia?
...And I was actually Zecora, a pro-Town role?
WHAT

...You're being over-defensive again. (Hopefully, my attempt to show that your exact same logic applied to the last game would have led Town to lynch a Townie supports that conclusion.)

There are more players in this game than you or I. The world does not revolve around us. And as Scum, I'm not going to antagonize you in the exact way you're describing and then not even aggressively attempt to vote you out or lead a lynch-train on you. You're being self-centered in accusing me of this plan to risk many things merely to remove your participation from the game, and trust me, if I were that dumb I'd never play Mafia again.

[Bard The 5th LW]

Snake's being too aggressive and self assured I think he's scum guys.

[Solid Snake]

And thus ends the latest round of "Snake posts another annoying Wall of Pink Text, leading Earl to have a Seizure"

Now for my top suspicions:

Geminex: ...Well, I still don't like the hedge, even though I feel slightly better about him than I did when I FOSed him. I don't feel like lynching Gem D1 because he can be a very productive Townie and I trust by D2 or D3 I'd have a much better read on him, but he's said a few things I find suspicious, and attempting to curry my sympathy my tossing in a law school reference into his post (while it may very well be true) is the oldest 'get Snake off your back' trick in the book. I'm hoping he becomes more aggressive in pursuing suspects.

Shyria: Just for general inactivity and not really giving us anything aside from a joke, though this may be due to this being her first game. (Has she played before?)

Smarty: Isn't it strange how the usually hugely controversial Smarty has not been hugely controversial or an active force so far this game? Like, so far he's barely be even mentioned as a potential lynch target. I find the lack of suspicion of Smarty suspicious. Are his scummates trying to keep him quiet in hopes that he lasts longer than usual? He's usually a D1 or N1 target.

Karesh:

Barring the strangest of circumstances, we must lynch somebody.
I just don't wanna be the one to pick who it is, that's all.

...That is a terrible thing to post for so many, many reasons, and it just reeks anti-Town vibes. As Town, the lynch is the only weapon you have! You have to be willing to pick or you are a liability to us!!!!
...Also, Karesh is in llluuurrrrvvveeee.

Fenris: ...I know you're a better player than this, Fenris.

As for RPG, I wouldn't support a D1 lynch on him. I really think y'all should wait until I'm inevitably killed off early either via lynch or nightkill, because RPG's playstyle right now is very heavily concentrated on knocking me out, so once you know my alignment and role you'll be in a fine position to judge exactly why he might consider me a threat.
The case against Earl is far better right now, at any rate.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

Originally Posted by Solid Snake

[COLOR="Magenta"]
Karesh:

...That is a terrible thing to post for so many, many reasons, and it just reeks anti-Town vibes. As Town, the lynch is the only weapon you have! You have to be willing to pick or you are a liability to us!!!!
...Also, Karesh is in llluuurrrrvvveeee.

No, no. I get it. I really do. If it really came down to it, I'd vote somebody. And I'm always up for defending somebody when I don't think they're quite as scummy as they're being made out...
I just feel pretty bad about being part of the lynch on Day One because I'm almost always entirely unsure about who's what. I've voted Day One in many games before, and whenever my target went through to lynch I can't remember ever being right.

...So I just kinda skip it.

[Karrrrrrrrrrrresche]

At that I guess I'll just come out and say that so far my favorite suspect is Smarty, followed by Al and then probably Fenris.

It's a weird sort of list because I can't really say I find any of them particularly scummy right now. But they're still the most suspicious.
That is to say I find Smarty sorta suspicious, Al kinda suspicious and Fenris fuck I need a third person for this list uhh who who who suspicious.

I know I'm not putting much of substance here but those are my thoughts and I haven't really got the time to actually present evidence. Only say that I've got a vibe about it.

I can't really act on that without any further evidence. And even if I did go through all of Smarty's posts (Since he's for whatever reason giving the "Acting weird" vibe the most) All that really demonstrates is he's acting differently, and there's a distinct lack of correlation between Smarty acting differently and Smarty acting scummy.