Superhero Mafia II

[Moogle0119]

Hmm....if you are Etrigan are you basically another town vigilante? I'm curious because Tophat is already Rorschach and he's been pretty much confirmed to be our town vigilante. I'm wondering if maybe you don't have some other sort of stipulation on your role or whatnot. I'm not doubting that there is an Etrigan out there, just that if you are what your role is.

[Ryanderman]

In lieu of a counter claim from the hypothetical real Etrigan, I'm going to trust Masked Jedi's role claim. Though I too really want to know what it is Etrigan does. So:

Vote: RedFighter

He's the next most lurky, and we don't have anything better to go on at the moment. If he comes in and claims something convincing, I'll rethink my vote.

[Tophat]

Yeah lets not kill Etrigan

Vote: RedFighter

[Tendronai]

I don't like how we aren't waiting around for Red, so I guess it's up to me to defend him.

ROLECLAIM: BLADE

Every night, I pick someone. If they're cult, I kill them dead. If they try to cult me, I kill them. That's more or less the extent of my role.

Night one, I was part of the cluster of people who attacked Moogle. I figured given how often he gets culted it would be a good choice. He could be culted now, but he isn't the leader.

Nights two, three, and four I attempted POS, DarthMauler, and Cephrir respectively. None of that really worked.

Last night, though, my target was Red. So not only is he not the cult leader, he's not cult, period. I'd recommend you unvote so we can go back to the drawing board of suspects.

The only two people who are left without roleclaims are OctoberRaven and Ryanderman. So FOS: BOTH OF YOU.

[Moogle0119]

Well I think the only person we haven't really heard from yet would be Red Fighter so I'll hold off voting for anyone just yet to see if any of the roles being claimed get counter-claimed by him. If all the above turns out true though it definitely proves that there IS a cult around despite none of the night posts showing any indication that this game has a cult. Again, if everything that everyone so far has said is true, it leaves us with a very short list of who is the last remaining mafiate and Red Fighter is on that list as well (although he's not cult).

Tendronai, since you're the closest thing we have to confirmation of there being a cult do you know if the cult has been actively inducting people or not? That way we can focus our attention on the more dangerous of the two (cult or mafia) as necessary.

[Ryanderman]

I didn't vote for RedFighter to get him lynched quickly. I voted for him, because I think his lurking is suspicious, and I wanted him to hear from him. Voting for someone often helps in that regard.

I'm also not about to roleclaim myself. I don't like roleclaiming, because it has a tendancy to make one a target for killing or inducting. Suffice to say, I'm town aligned. And you can trust that roleclaim about as much as I can trust Tendronai's or Masked Jedi's, or Tophat's role claim. Slightly more than not at all. It's the way of the game. I'm not any role that's been previously claimed, or I'd counter-claim in a instant and lynch that lier.

My thoughts, given what we know about the cult:
1) It exists
2) It's been at least moderately active
- It failed to induct Cephrir (he had no reason to lie)
- It was roleblocked by Darthmauler (assuming, yet again, that the vampire is the CL)
3) No one from the cult has yet been revealed or killed.
4) The cult has, at most, 4 members including the CL. (5 nights, 2 failures)

My thoughts are pure conjecture, but I think the only way the cult could have survived this long with no losses, is by staying in the background. Inducting people not likely to be noticed or targeted. That, or it hasn't been active, and so hasn't had any inductees to get killed. Either way, the Cult Leader is likely someone who thinks staying unnoticed is the best way to survive, and thus is likely lurking himself.

Of the remaining players:
1. Dauntasa
3. Moogle
4. Ryanderman
7. October Raven
10. Masked Jedi
13. Tendronai
14. Red Fighter
17. Tophat
21. B_real_shadows

B_real is confirmed, Dauntasa is almost confirmed (and I want to apologize to him for voting for him. He is likely indeed Captain America), Moogle wasn't killed by Blade and so is not the CL, and Tophat hasn't had anyone counter-claim his vig claim and neither has the real vig killed him, so he's likely telling the truth.

And I'm taking myself off the list, because I'm the one making it, and I know my role. Fell free to add me back for your own analysis.

That leaves:

7. October Raven
10. Masked Jedi
13. Tendronai
14. Red Fighter

Based on posting habits, and my hypothesis about the CL, I took OctoberRaven off the list, because he's been very active the entire game. He doesn't match the profile I'm working with. I had the CL pegged as one of:

10. Masked Jedi
13. Tendronai
14. Red Fighter

All three have been quite lurky, but just active enough to have been paying attention.
And that was as far as I got before this Day started.

Now all three of them have had some evidence that they aren't the CL. If Tendronai is telling the truth, neither he nor RedFighter can be the CL. And if Masked Jedi is telling the truth, he isn't either. Maybe my hypothosis is wrong, but I'm not ready to abandon it yet.

Between the two role claims, Tendronai's seems to have the most weight behind it. He could be the CL himself, coving for his cultist, RedFighter. It'd be a good plan. The abilities he claims for his role match my thoughts on what Blade does. They could be pretty easily figured out from the night posts. Except for the second part of the role, but I assumed it'd be a logical addition.

Except that that would attract the real Blade's attention, which would be deadly. But if RedFighter were the CL, and Tendronai was his cultist, I could see him using the roleclaim to draw the heat towards himself. After getting someone else lynched today, Blade would target Tendronai, leaving RedFighter in the clear. They'd lose a cultist, but if they have 4 members today, and get someone tonight, they'd have a majority tomorrow and it wouldn't matter. Either way, it doesn't really fit the pattern that I've hypothesized of staying in the background. But then again, if this is their endgame, they could be taking the risk.

Masked Jedi's roleclaim, on the otherhand, fits my hypothesis pretty well. When suspicion fell on him, he made the least effort possible to deflect the attention, and tried to stay unnoticed. He roleclaimed Etrigan, someone mentioned in the night posts, and thus confirmed to be in the game. This avoided the unwanted attention brought against Dauntasa when he roleclaimed someone that the rest of us felt wouldn't belong in this game. Any new mention of a character by a player is going to cause a significant portion of the rest of us to check out that character, to see if it fits the game, and the roleclaim. But roleclaiming a known character in the game avoids that suspicion. The only risk is that the real Etrigan will counter claim. And if Masked Jedi has 3 inductees, he'll have a large enough group to help sway the rest of the town against the counter claim, if it happens.

So:
Unvote: RedFighter
FOS: Masked Jedi

I'd rather hear a counter claim from the real Etrigan, but I think Masked Jedi fits with the established pattern of the Cult Leader well enough to justify my voting for him at this time. I'll hold off though, till some more people weigh in.

EDIT: Spelling

[Masked Jedi]

Originally Posted by Moogle0119

Hmm....if you are Etrigan are you basically another town vigilante? I'm curious because Tophat is already Rorschach and he's been pretty much confirmed to be our town vigilante. I'm wondering if maybe you don't have some other sort of stipulation on your role or whatnot. I'm not doubting that there is an Etrigan out there, just that if you are what your role is.

I can nightkill, PO, protect, and roleblock once each. I already used the kill, but haven't used any of the others. I tried to use the kill earlier, but was blocked by WW.

[OctoberRaven]

OBJECTION!

If your first kill was blocked by Wonder Woman, then it should have been gone.

Explain please.

By the way, I'm Deadpool.

If you target me, you have a 50/50 chance of getting killed. Don't know if this nulls a kill action.

I'm guessing Etrigan and Blade are real claims, so Vote: RedFighter as we might still have mafia to deal with.

EDIT- Upon thinking of it further:
If someone is culted the same night a PO investigates, would he come up cult? If so Tendronai has a point... assuming he's actually Blade.

On further thinking, I'm certain that Etrigan is cult, wether or not he's actually Masked Jedi. I'd like to point out that he is also one of the people NOT confirmed by Tendronai.

Therefore, it's my opinion that, RF was possibly investigated the same night he was cult, and Roy gave Tendronai a negative result because of it. I believe the cult therefore consists of MJ; Ryanderman; Tophat; and possibly either RF, Moogle, B_Real or Dauntasa.

That being considered as B_Real, RF, Moogle and Dauntasa are NOT the CL, we're down to MJ, Ryanderman and Tophat.

As Tophat roleclaimed Vigilante it's only logical that he would be culted afterwards, but this may not be the case.

What I think happened last night is Etrigan and Rorschash attacked Cephrir because Cephrir had a shot in the dark chance to kill him as a last laugh. Etrigan RBed so Cephrir couldn't perform a nightkill (this is why Dauntasa is still alive).

If MJ is cult, he's the most likely leader, followed by Ryanderman.

Therefore!

Unvote: RedFighter
Vote: MaskedJedi

If MJ is cult, and Tendronai attacks/kills Ryan or Top, then we quicklnch the remaining suspect and worry about who is the lone mafiate afterwards (I'm fairly certain that it's RF, but it could be Moogle).

[P-Sleazy]

This amuses me to no extent the thought process by which you came up with all this.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the vig got culted and Tophat is the Cult Leader claiming vig in the vig's place.

[OctoberRaven]

Honestly the most glaring flaw is that RF not being the CL mostly depends on if Tendronai is telling the truth, but if he isn't I think someone would have counterclaimed.

I'd say there's about a 95% chance that Tendronai is indeed Blade.

Moogle being a bulletproof mafia with there being a vig, a jack-of-all-trades, AND a SK is certainly possible.

Also, I'm assuming there is still a mafiate as I would have expected a GM note that the mafia has been destroyed. Not sure if that's something Roy does or not. It's probably one because a 20-man game with a cult shouldn't have more than 5. If there are two, then RF and Moogle are definately the two, and three... well, three is pretty much impossible. If my math is right.

EDIT- By the way, by "killing him" in my previous post I meant the CL. Just wanted to clarify that.

EDIT EDIT- Tophat being the CL is definately a possibility but I'm thinking if he was indeed the CL and he had the vig before he claimed it, he would have went for Cephrir much earlier. I'm 85% sure that Tophat was inducted after his roleclaim. MJ is my choice for CLs because by my experience CLs tend to try and avoid calling attention to themselves unless they have to.