Hatland Mafia

[rpgdemon]

I'll be honest, I don't know what tells you if someone is culty or not. The only game we had a cult in, they were all killed off N1.

The thing is though, I think the cult is scary, since they can get powerful, instead of just leaving the town weakened. And people want to react to that. But I'm holding off on actually voting yet, since you guys have just sort of gone, "Well, he's culty by acting like a culty dude." If there's reason to believe that he's cult, I'd like to know it, but until then, you guys could be "independently" verifying that, "Man, he's a cult dude.", while being the cult yourself.

I have no idea about that whole thing though, so I'm not gonna vote based off of it. RO, on the other hand, is lighting up almost as much as Aldurin. The fact that he wanted the town to throw away a lynch is really suspicious.

[Sifright]

Originally Posted by rpgdemon

I'll be honest, I don't know what tells you if someone is culty or not. The only game we had a cult in, they were all killed off N1.

The thing is though, I think the cult is scary, since they can get powerful, instead of just leaving the town weakened. And people want to react to that. But I'm holding off on actually voting yet, since you guys have just sort of gone, "Well, he's culty by acting like a culty dude." If there's reason to believe that he's cult, I'd like to know it, but until then, you guys could be "independently" verifying that, "Man, he's a cult dude.", while being the cult yourself.

I have no idea about that whole thing though, so I'm not gonna vote based off of it. RO, on the other hand, is lighting up almost as much as Aldurin. The fact that he wanted the town to throw away a lynch is really suspicious.

Understandable, Let me clarify my position then with some quotes from Geminex plus my analysis of them afterwards. To begin with let's show the Night 1 post again

Originally Posted by Mr.Bookworm

As the day dawns, you wake up to a string of grisly murders and crimes.

A child wearing a propeller beanie was shot in the head from behind, and was found holding a bloody knife. He was found lying next to the body of a woman in a sunhat, brutally stabbed to death by the child.

A man wearing a trilby was later seen standing on top of the bridge, before jumping off. His trilby later washed ashore, and he is presumed dead.

A man wearing goggles was found in his home/laboratory on the edge of town, in several pieces, hacked to death.

In addition, there was a break-in at the home of Aldurin, although nothing appears to have been taken.

Fenris (shot to death), Kerensky (stabbed to death), Moogle (suicide), and Bard (hacked to death) are DEAD.

Night 1 over, Day 2 start. 9 to lynch.

From this we can see that a player randomly suicided (Moogle), We don't have knowledge of his role or alignment but there are a few things we can tell straight away firstly the suicide hasn't caused any other effects at least for the first night.

My post nearly immediately afterwards shows my thoughts on what the night flavor text amounts to, ofcourse I could be wrong but I don't believe my analysis of the night flavor text to be in error. Fenris is clearly the SK as a child murderer certainly doesn't fit MO of the Mafia nor in truth of the Vigilante. The next kill we have is Fenris being shot in the back Initially my thoughts were it could be either the Mafia or the Vigilante however the next kill on Bard nixed that thought as the Mafia have in the past performed murders in exactly that manner slicing and hacking the corpse into pieces is an effective scare tactic and was used by the Mafia in real life in the past.

Moogles death/suicide at first came as a bit of a shock to me as I didn't see what could have caused it how ever on reflection I realized that if there is a cult and that they could recruit Mafia then the cult would very quickly grow to powerful so instead of recruiting mafia players the cult leader instead kills Mafia players.

Now we come to where I start to get some evidence for my thoughts on Geminex being the cult leader.

Originally Posted by Geminex

Pity about moogle. Waste of a good trilby hat, that. I guess his night 1 death was part of his role, though? And he had to avoid arousing suspicion? He did that fairly well, so well done moogle.
...
I'm assuming that he is dead? According to the flavor text, we only find his hat. But even if he survived the fall, a man can't live without his hat, can he? : o

Bard. Scientist's goggles. Assuming he's town. Maybe an inventor of some sort? That's the closest thing I can think of that fits the scientist role. If so... well, fuck. Inventors are usually pretty strong, aren't they?
If Fen was our SK, then I guess it'd be safe to assume thar Bard got hacked to death by the mafia. If so, any idea why that would've happened? Bard didn't seem like a particularly agressive player, at all. All he really did was call moogle and earl suspicious. But Moogle was suicidal and I think pretty much everyone has called earl suspcious.

First let's look at his couple of line, he tries to paint moogles death as part of his role and congratulates him on his success in avoiding suspicion day 1. This flagged Gem up for me pretty quickly. One we don't have any information on Moogles actual role and two his attempt to paint Moogles role as a suicide one doesn't make much sense on the face of it. Moving more odd hedging and floundering about whether he is alive or not. Personally I think this part of his post amounts to jokey fluff not much in the way of a tell but being day 2 any jokey posts are little suspicious as things are much more serious now. The end of his post calling Moogle suicidal again as if it were part of his role.

Originally Posted by Geminex

Huh. But why would the flavor text for that be suicide? I mean, I agree that there's probably a cult, and that maybe mafiates do die when they get recruited (to prevent the mafiate from betraying his allies). But why suicide?

Checking mafiascum right now, and apparently suicidal roles exist, while being uncommon. So... why not suicidal?

The suicidal roles shown in mafiascum wiki are bombs used to target other players taking them selves out along with their target. I've not seen any roles on that wiki that kill theselves and do nothing else. This was the second medium tell for me about Geminex. So this is the reason I am voting for him along with his other minor tells. Outside of what I've said already the largest of his scum tells his is wildly divergent play style/tactics from last game.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Sif, while you raise some interesting points regarding Geminexs posts, there IS a suicide role that simply causes the death of the player at a determined time. I think it was Gem who even posted it here before, but I'll link it again in case it slipped anyone by;

Suicidal

Originally Posted by Mafiascum

A Suicidal player will passively commit suicide when a certain time-based trigger occurs. The most common instance of this is the Suicidal Townie, which will passively die Night 1. There is nothing that can be done to stop a Suicidal player from dying at the designated time.

This can either be a post count (after 24 posts have been made) or at a certain phase (Night 2).

So it is ENTIRELY possible that Moogle was given a pointless suicide role. It is also equally likely that Moogle was the cult leader and he attempted to convert a mafiate, and thus died hiself. That's usually how cults work with regards to mafia conversions. Both are possible here.

Also thinking from a cult perspective, if Geminex was the cult leader, why would he propose that somebody whose death looks like a possible cult leader death is in fact a suicidal role? Surely if he was cult leader himself he would propose that the cult leader has died, thus making everyone think that the cult is gone and no longer a threat. That's some shaky logic man.

[Professor Smarmiarty]

I was comng at Gem as Cult Leader from a differnet angle- his tailing of other high profile players, getting them to take the bullets as it were, while also agreeing with them to prevent htem turnin gon him. Gem was playing beta dog strategy while he seems like an alpha type to me which is why I came at him as cleader- not much to do with day 2 moogle posts (didn't even occur to me till Sif posted).
Two of us came indepedentely on Gem for different reasons, that is reason to be suspicious.
But he hasn't posted uyet

[Sifright]

Originally Posted by Hawk

Sif, while you raise some interesting points regarding Geminexs posts, there IS a suicide role that simply causes the death of the player at a determined time. I think it was Gem who even posted it here before, but I'll link it again in case it slipped anyone by;

Suicidal





So it is ENTIRELY possible that Moogle was given a pointless suicide role. It is also equally likely that Moogle was the cult leader and he attempted to convert a mafiate, and thus died hiself. That's usually how cults work with regards to mafia conversions. Both are possible here.

Also thinking from a cult perspective, if Geminex was the cult leader, why would he propose that somebody whose death looks like a possible cult leader death is in fact a suicidal role? Surely if he was cult leader himself he would propose that the cult leader has died, thus making everyone think that the cult is gone and no longer a threat. That's some shaky logic man.

Well, I have to admit I didn't notice that. Does any one think Bookie would give out a role that is die night 1? If that was given to me I know I would have told bookie to go to hell...

It's not shakey logic because he was trying to skate by with out even showing the existence of the cult I first postulated the existence of the cult AFTER he said it was a suicide role after which He then tried to say it was more likely that the cult leader died doing that.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

Ok yeah, going back and reading it again, I can see your point. He didn't even think of Moogles death as cult related so it looks odd in retrospect. To be fair, the fluff wasn't too revealing either and it did seem to imply Moogle as a suicidal.

Duno if the makes Gem culty or not though. If I was the cult leader and I saw somebody die like that, I'd have jumped on the chance to propose that the CL was dead, but then I read Sun Tzu. Appear weak when you are strong, appear strong when you are weak. If everybody thought the cult was dead, then they wouldn't be looking for any cult tells, which if you're the CL buys you the time you need to start winning.

[Sifright]

Originally Posted by Mr.Bookworm

As the day dawns, you wake up to a string of grisly murders and crimes.

A child wearing a propeller beanie was shot in the head from behind, and was found holding a bloody knife. He was found lying next to the body of a woman in a sunhat, brutally stabbed to death by the child.

A man wearing a trilby was later seen standing on top of the bridge, before jumping off. His trilby later washed ashore, and he is presumed dead.

A man wearing goggles was found in his home/laboratory on the edge of town, in several pieces, hacked to death.

In addition, there was a break-in at the home of Aldurin, although nothing appears to have been taken.

Fenris (shot to death), Kerensky (stabbed to death), Moogle (suicide), and Bard (hacked to death) are DEAD.

Night 1 over, Day 2 start. 9 to lynch.

Night post

Originally Posted by Geminex

Okay, phew. This is interesting.

snake: Mayor in the Tricorne. Huh. Given that his lynch was mainly a policy lynch, from what I could tell, I'm not really surprised. Bad affair all 'round, I guess. But let's put that behind us.
The pertinent question, I think, is what did we lose? Anyone got any idea what a peacemaker does? Google isn't helping.

Fen: Beanie Kid.
First off, kudos to the vig for spotting this. I wouldn't have.
I'm thinking he might've been SK. I don't really have any evidence other than flavor, but a child wearing a propellor beanie and stabbing adults to death? That doesn't sound like a mafiate. That sounds like something out of Stephen King.

Don't really have much to say about Kerensky. Sounds like vanilla townie to me, honestly. Any idea why Fen would've targeted him?

Pity about moogle. Waste of a good trilby hat, that. I guess his night 1 death was part of his role, though? And he had to avoid arousing suspicion? He did that fairly well, so well done moogle.
...
I'm assuming that he is dead? According to the flavor text, we only find his hat. But even if he survived the fall, a man can't live without his hat, can he? : o

Bard. Scientist's goggles. Assuming he's town. Maybe an inventor of some sort? That's the closest thing I can think of that fits the scientist role. If so... well, fuck. Inventors are usually pretty strong, aren't they?
If Fen was our SK, then I guess it'd be safe to assume thar Bard got hacked to death by the mafia. If so, any idea why that would've happened? Bard didn't seem like a particularly agressive player, at all. All he really did was call moogle and earl suspicious. But Moogle was suicidal and I think pretty much everyone has called earl suspcious.

And speaking of earl... What's up with the break-in? I'm not quite sure, but I think that might be our version of the PO? It'd make sense, certainly. PO breaks in and looks for clues regarding alignment. Plus, it'd make sense for earl to get investigated, since he was pretty much the number 1 suspect.

Mind you, if this is how the PO works, then that's certainly... interesting. On the one hand, it'll make it a lot hader for scum to roleclaim. But on the other hand, it makes it a lot easier for scum to figure out who the PO actually is.

One final point: What's up with the bribery? Money changes hands, causing a secret vote. Is it just me, or does that seem a bit scummy? I mean, I get that some townies have multiple votes, but a secret vote? Plus, the bribery flavor text? Sounds like subversion of the democratic process to me.

First Gem post day 2

Originally Posted by Sifright

FOS: Smarty,

Fenris is clearly the SK and was taken out by the Vig I think that is so mind breakingly obvious questioning some one on that line thought is just silly

FOS: Aldurin
Made a vanilla roleclaim with what Karesh is describing as a joke post where he claims bookie told him as an incompetent player your only going to be nilla I call bullshit. wasn't night killed by Mafia either his post would have made the mafia really want him dead.

FOS: Karesh
Sticking up for aldurin, when having no real way to know if aldurin is town or not with some patchy logic of "It was a joke". Doesn't sit well with me so suspicion by proxy.

Vote: Aldurin

Moogles death, I'm unsure of he could have quit the game but I feel it's more likely that there is a cult in the game and that when they try to recruit mafia players they drop dead instead.

First Sif post day 2

Originally Posted by Geminex

Yeah, we're just stipulating on a basis of flavor text here, none of this is certain. But any basis for discussion is better than no basis. So okay.

Did you have any thoughts on the break-in? It seems like it could be the PO, to me, but I don't know how usual/unusual a PO with visible investigations is.


Huh. But why would the flavor text for that be suicide? I mean, I agree that there's probably a cult, and that maybe mafiates do die when they get recruited (to prevent the mafiate from betraying his allies). But why suicide?

Checking mafiascum right now, and apparently suicidal roles exist, while being uncommon. So... why not suicidal?

Third Gem post day 2 (2nd was very short)

Originally Posted by Hawk

Ok yeah, going back and reading it again, I can see your point. He didn't even think of Moogles death as cult related so it looks odd in retrospect. To be fair, the fluff wasn't too revealing either and it did seem to imply Moogle as a suicidal.

Duno if the makes Gem culty or not though. If I was the cult leader and I saw somebody die like that, I'd have jumped on the chance to propose that the CL was dead, but then I read Sun Tzu. Appear weak when you are strong, appear strong when you are weak. If everybody thought the cult was dead, then they wouldn't be looking for any cult tells, which if you're the CL buys you the time you need to start winning.

Well, the issue with that is going "The cult is dead" Is well how the hell do you know that? It would straight up bring suspicion because moogle flavor death doesn't tell you that it just says he committed suicide given that his suicide did nothing else and that I refuse to accept that bookie would give out a role which is "Lawl you get to die night one if you actually play" it's logical to presume there is something going on underneath that hence the cult mafia interaction thoughts I had.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Hawk]

So... what do you think happened with Moogle then? Becuase I only see 2 possibilities; either he was a suicide role, or he was the CL who tried to attack a mafiate and died. You're saying it can't be the former, yet also saying Gem is the CL, so what does that make Moogle?

[Geminex]

Okay, this kinda... completely comes out of the left field.

In regards to playstyle, I honestly have to let you guys be the judge of that. I don't think that deviation from my previous bhavior is ground for suspicion, though. By all means, call my behavior into question, but if you say "His behavior now deviates from his behavior in the previous game!", then that isn't an accusation. It's a statement of the obvious. Playstyles change. People adapt to situations. And given that this is my second game, I don't think I have a "standard playstyle" to fall back on.

I guess I was a bit more hesitant in this day 1 than in the last, but that's mostly cause my D1 suspicions, with the exception of nikose were pretty wildly off-course. Plus, last game somebody thought I was being overagressive, and I thought I'd try surviving past D2 this time.

In regards to smarty... buddying up with the more vocal players? Really? I stayed away from your Snake lych in D1, though I didn't fight it too much, and I've already argued with you a few times during D2. Sure, I ended up agreeing with you sometimes, I genuinely thought your p-sleazy argument was interesting, and I gave in on the moogle argument just so we could make some headway. But that doesn't mean I'm hiding in your shadow. I make up my own mind, I'd be an idiot not to.

As for the moogle thing...
Seriously? I mean, not to diminish your sleuthing prowess, but I interpreted the data of the nightkill. It told us a player had committed suicide. I assumed that the suicidal player had the suicidal role, given that the situation matched the description of this role pretty exactly. I even posted a link to back up my argument, which you apparently didn't notice.

My point is, I'm not making wild, manipulative conjenctures here. I made the logical argument that the guy who commited suicide might have done that because he was suicidal. I don't see how you can consider that culty.

And you'll note that once people elaborated on their arguments a bit, I came to agree. Because that's what I try to do, find the most likely explanation for something. The trilby hat didn't fit into the "Suicidal" or the "Cultist" role, so I went along with the explanation that moogle was likely mafia. And given that assumption, the only real reason for mafia I could think of, was as a mechanism to avoid mafia recruitment by the cult.

Aaaand I just previewed, and you lot have been posting again.

He then tried to say it was more likely that the cult leader died doing that.

As for this, yes, this is another suggestion I made. I thought it was usual for the cult leader to die, rather than the culted mafiate. Given that the rules regulating a cult-mafia encounter are pretty shaky, I think that assumption was, at least initially, justified. I didn't hold it for awfully long.

As for smarty considering me an alpha, I'm flattered, but sceptical. I've made my own mind up. I drew a few obvious conclusions, a few less obvious ones, which I then argued quite willingly. If you guys made logical points, I gave in, if not, I upheld my argument. If I seem less sure to you, I think the situation in this game is a lot more murky than the last. And, again, most of what you've seen of me is D1, so far, and I think my holding back over there was justified.

I get that this is just a hunch for you. I just don't think it's a particularly good hunch.

As for Sifright's latest post, again. I was throwing options out there. When you guys made logical counter-arguments, I accepted those. I didn't go "THE CULT IS DEAD NOBODY ARGUE". I first assumed that moogle had been suicidal, which I thought was a reasonable assumption. When the cult-mafia interaction was brought up, I thought that it would make sense for the cultist to die, rather than the deadly mafiate. I suggested both possiblities, yes. But there's a difference between making an argument and trying to force an argument on others.

Also, think, when you quote multiple posts, that you could highlight the important bits?

[Geminex]

Also, Hawk, the assumption we're going with is that moogle was a mafiate, and that he suicided when the cult tried to recruit him. That's partly what we're basing our suspicions of p-sleazy around.