Basic Roles Mafia

[Nikose Tyris]

Originally Posted by Nique

Which they'll do anyway? It's losing only one person vs. losing two people.

Correction: It's Losing one person vs. possibly losing a mafiate and a townie. A No lynch vote means the town CAN'T win. Welcome to the reality of the game.

Also, your math doesn't apply. Once the odds are favourable for us to hit a mafiate, that means the mafia already won.

Because of your attention to waiting and your desire for better odds, I'll vote: nique until a better vote option comes along.

[Truce]

Originally Posted by Nique

And I do stand by both of my FOSs, given the current situation. I'm assuming that the Mafia in this game are playing smart. I mean, 42's death tells us nothing! It's the perfect crime, becuase he wasn't a threat to any mafia (he went along with that first lynch which I am pretty sure was supported by the mafia) so how would we trace motive to someone else?

This quote alone warrants my attention.

The very reason that Nique was pushing for a No Lynch vote in the previous day is because he wanted to wait and see if there are any clues; that much, I can understand, and would probably agree with if more of our nights gave more substantial clues. However, he's so quick to say that we can't trace the motive, that 42 wasn't a threat to anybody.

That is, of course, if you ignore Nique himself.

Actually, there was one other person. You see, in the second post of the thread, 42 cast a vote - with no explanation at all. That person was Mr. Bookworm; but the deceased, while having a reason, would not have the capability (even if he were, instead of the PO, a mafiate) to have killed 42.

Nique has, however pointed out, that any threat to him originated from Nikose, setting down the rails for the train of thought that lead 42 to FOS him. So why not go after Nikose himself?

Well, I can see several reasons. The first is that Nikose, while a bigger threat, would be much more obvious, and would be harder to defend against. More importantly though, Nikose in the first day seemed to be much more random, rather than 42 who seemed pretty much dead set against Mr. Bookworm and might go after Nique again. Between the two, while Nikose seems to be louder, 42 seemed most likely to continue in his trail of thought.

He does, however, bring up an interesting point - that B_Real's avatar is shooting a gun, and 42 was shot, but that isn't enough to see B_Real to be scummier than himself. Still, it does bring to mind that the method of killing might have something to do with it.

The sun is rising in the horizon as light breaks through the clouds, the town meets in the center of town and quickly counts how many are there. there are only ten people there, and it becomes quite apparent why when the corpse of 42PETUNIAS, town aligned vanilla townie is found lying on the ground with 3 bullets in his back

This suggests that someone betrayed 42; pretended to be on his side, and then shot him, well, in the back.

The people who voted for Mr. Bookworm were 42PETUNIAS, B_real, fifthfiend, Major Blood, Sheb, Ecurt, Nikose. Since 42 was technically "leading" the charge against Mr. Bookworm (though without providing any reasons), someone who voted after him might have taken part in killing him.

That leaves, B_Real, fifthfiend, Major Blood, Sheb, Nikose, and then myself.

Of those, B_Real's avatar does have a gun. I also know from experience that B_Real is the type to set people up; I could honestly see him trying to lay low and make it look like Nique killed 42. However, I also recall that he would pick someone where the connection was stronger.

fifthfiend, if he really felt like it, could have killed 42 for the comment back in the sign up thread. This would be, of course, just to spite him, something I don't see fifthfiend doing. Mostly because he couldn't say anything witty after knocking off 42, but also because he wouldn't hold a grudge that long over something so minor.

Sheb's pretty new, so I don't know what his style would be, and Major Blood is not someone I'm too familiar with in the games; and neither have any particular association with the hit that's greater than anybody else's.

Then there's Nikose. He also went along with FOSing Nique; however, as he initiated it, Nikose would have been the one with his back turned to 42. Still, there's that possibility as well.

Finally, I'm a suspect as well. I suppose, technically, I was arguing with Nique as well, but not to the point of FOSing him. But...well, I'm not silly enough to vote or FOS myself.

When all is said and done, though, Nique still seems to be the scummiest to me, as he's the one with any semblance of a motive. B_Real comes close, as the method of death is most likely to tie into him; but I don't exactly trust my so called "insight." So, for now, I suppose I shall:

Vote: Nique
FOS: B_Real

[Captain Combustible]

Vote count

Nikose-1(Ogianres)

Nique-1(ecurt)

6 to lynch

if Lost Prophet dosen't post by tommorow I will replace him.

[Fifthfiend]

fifthfiend, if he really felt like it, could have killed 42 for the comment back in the sign up thread. This would be, of course, just to spite him, something I don't see fifthfiend doing. Mostly because he couldn't say anything witty after knocking off 42, but also because he wouldn't hold a grudge that long over something so minor.

Among other things, I'd hardly sit around plotting some kind of intricate revenge to unfold over the course of the game, when I could just change his user title to "I <3 Fatties" and set his avatar as a big ugly fat lady, right now.

...Oh man, i'm gonna have to remember that one.

Anyway, I have a hard time seeing Nique as a Mafiate when he was pushing for a no-lynch vote at a point when the vote was already leaning strongly towards a Townie. I mean if he really was a Mafiate I would think he'd just stand back and let us shoot ourselves in the foot.

Nikose by comparison seemed pretty free & easy about swapping his vote over, once he saw a convenient mark.

In absence of anything more compelling I am going to say

VOTE: NIKOSE TYRIS

[Nique]

A No lynch vote means the town CAN'T win.

I'd like to drop it after this, but I just hope you realize that my 'No lynch' tactic is only intended for the first day. After that, it's a body-count race between the townies and the mafia. Also, in addition to my other reasons which don't seem to be getting through, it partly is motivated by the desire to not end the game too soon for anyone. *shrugs* I just don't have the stomach for murder I guess.

Ecurt, firstly , I enjoyed the very comprehensive analysis. But it seems like you gave better reasons for for fos-ing or voteing other people, yet you still voted for me? I mean, the situation with 42 is pretty speculative, esspecially in light of the whole Mr. Bookworm fiasco, as fifth pointed out. Nikose may have reason to vote for me becuase he genuinely sees my tactics as scummy, but do you really feel solid on your current vote?

By the way, Captain Combustible, Nikose also voted for me so I have two votes, not just one.

I mean if he really was a Mafiate I would think he'd just stand back and let us shoot ourselves in the foot.

And I wouldn't be facing the spotlight like this right now, as I would have just blended in with the crowd.

I may recend this, but since there's a little support for it and I'm curious to provoke a reaction;

Vote: Nikose Tyris

[Truce]

Simply put Nique, in my previous games I've had better luck judging the motive than I have judging the clues that the GM might have put in in a murder post.

As of that moment, you had the strongest motivation that I could see, and everyone else was mostly based on the chance that the clue isn't a red herring; which it usually is.

So, I feel pretty solid about my vote right now.

Still, it seems I did forget to look at something. Nikose did change his vote pretty quickly. He already posted a reason why, but looking back, it doesn't exactly look strong enough.

Hmm...

FOS: Nikose

I don't see a strong enough reason to lynch him yet, but then again there's always time to change my vote to him or anyone else.

[Nikose Tyris]

I just can't seem to find any logical reason you've listed that you should vote for me that I haven't already defended against. "You said this and it looked scummy to me despite having made a very clear reason why it isn't."

Well, not much more I can do there, is there? :P Give me a specific and I'll reply to your specific.

[Captain Combustible]

Vote count-

Nique- 2 (Nikose, Ecurt)

Nikose-3 (Ogianres, Nique, FifthFiend)

[Truce]

You said that 42 was not a threat to anybody, that the motive could not be traced back to anyone. This was after you admitted that 42 did FOS you and thus was a threat to you; in my earlier post I also pointed out reasons why you would pick 42 instead of Nikose to kill.

The fact that you made it a point to say that the motive couldn't be traced back to anyone seemed, to me at least, an attempt to cover your tracks. You seemed a little too quickly to give up on tracing the motive; something that struck me odd, considering that the main argument in your No Lynch vote in the previous day was to find clues.

That, to me, smells fishy.

Not only that, but the line "42 wasn't a threat to anybody" strikes me as odd since how would anybody be a threat to anyone else if we all voted for No Lynch on the first day?

Specifically, though, I find it hard to believe that you didn't seem to press harder into the clues you wanted to look for, considering how much effort you put into arguing a stance of waiting a day to see them.

[Fifthfiend]

I just can't seem to find any logical reason you've listed that you should vote for me that I haven't already defended against.

I found your defense unconvincing.

I mean if Bookworm had turned out to be a Mafiate, then Nique would be the first person I would suspect right now. As it turned out he was not, so whatever the ultimate merits of his no-lynch strategy - I'm not by any means saying Nique's convinced me as to its overall efficacy - it's just not one that I can see someone advocating during this particular game's first vote were he a Mafiate and, as such, fully aware that we were lining up to sacrifice a Townie.

recend

Rescind.

Just trying to be helpful.