Mafia: NPF edition - Page 61

P-Sleazy · 07-09-2006, 09:28 PM

Could someone PLEASE for the love of the game move this along? Its boring to watch a game that's barely moving. I think some modding should be put into play here to speed things along.

Mesden · 07-09-2006, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B_real_shadows

Could someone PLEASE for the love of the game move this along? Its boring to watch a game that's barely moving. I think some modding should be put into play here to speed things along.

Well, you know, that's the GO's job. And so far, no one wants to respond to the current situation, aside from a few.

Post shock, maybe.

MasterOfMagic · 07-09-2006, 09:46 PM

Well...really, there's just not much to go on here. Basically, pages 9 through 13 (with 40 post pages) are useless now. All the new accusations just seem flimsy to me.

Really the only thing I can reply to is:

Quote:

...The hell are you talking about? 1 mafiate>4 townies numbers wise. If for every 4 townies we get a mafiate, we WIN. It's as simple as that. And at this point, we've gotten one mafiate every 3 townies. (We've lost 6 townies and killed 2 mafiates. All other threats to the town are gone.)

You have to figure in those other threats too, cause if we don't kill them, we don't win :P

So, we've killed 4 threats, and lost 6 townies. 3 more threats to go.

25 overall - 7 threats = 18 townies
18 townies/7 threats = 2.5 (3) townies per threat as an okay rate.
6 townies / 4 threats = 1.5 (2) townies per threat as our actual rate.

We're doing pretty good. *nod nod*

Mesden · 07-09-2006, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MasterOfMagic

You have to figure in those other threats too, cause if we don't kill them, we don't win :P

I decided to leave them out of the equation because they were all gone, Thank you very much. =P

neyo the king · 07-10-2006, 01:27 AM

Ok, I'd love to contribute something here, but I seriously got nothing. I mean, the amount of nothing that I have is to a new degree. I went through most of the thread, and looked around, and I found nothing.

The whole Spacepope thing I thought of, and I decided that he wasn't acting scummy enough to warrant a vote.

Mesden · 07-10-2006, 01:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neyo the King

Ok, I'd love to contribute something here, but I seriously got nothing. I mean, the amount of nothing that I have is to a new degree. I went through most of the thread, and looked around, and I found nothing.

The whole Spacepope thing I thought of, and I decided that he wasn't acting scummy enough to warrant a vote.

Neyo, let me put it THIS way for you.

He isn't acting scummy "Enough". Neither is anyone else, correct?

Who in your mind is the MOST scummy? THAT is the person you should vote for, and try to get a bit of reasoning in there.

Garud, maybe a deadline will speeden things up.

GARUD · 07-10-2006, 02:32 AM

Deadline it is. You have two days starting from this post to aquire a lynch target.

Daisuke · 07-10-2006, 04:11 AM

Morning... I just got in. 7 hours in a cramped car is not fun. Still I know people that had worse trips. Anyway...

This whole bit with TheSpacePope is interesting. I mean I'm kind of understood what Newb was saying... Almost. I mean I'm not sure if it's enough to convict by, but he really does sound bad by some of the things he's said.

Particularly:

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpacePope

So you weren't defending me?
You didn't say that IC's post was against the rules?
Did these things just not happen?
All I am saying people is that Mesden is the only person still alive that was fingered by B-real as mafia.....
I think we need a bit of PO action here.
edit and for the record here is that "JOKE" post.

What struck me odd about this bit is how he sounds like those commercials funded by political candidates used to discredit their opponents.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpacePope

The only response that I have fo ryou is that B-real was a confirmed mafiate and he put the finger on you as a mafiate also.
So does that make me more suspect, or you? It turns out he was lying about catlover anyway so maybe he was lying about that too. But it still makes me wonder. However, unlike you, I am going to hold my vote until some better evidence than a "joke" as you yourself called it.

In summary "B_real accused someone and it turns out he was lying about it. I bet he wasn't lying in his accusation of you."
I mean seriously. I know you're just bringing it up, just throwing it out there lightly, but still. That's a ridiculous train of thought. I don't think we can take anything B_real said at all seriously. At least not without our brains exploding :p

Mesden · 07-10-2006, 04:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MasterOfMagic

So, we've killed 4 threats, and lost 6 townies. 3 more threats to go.

25 overall - 7 threats = 18 townies
18 townies/7 threats = 2.5 (3) townies per threat as an okay rate.
6 townies / 4 threats = 1.5 (2) townies per threat as our actual rate.

We're doing pretty good. *nod nod*

You forget one REALLLLLLLY important thing. Or 3 really.

We're still a town with ALL of their roles. Atleast non-secret ones.

I'd also like to put a bit of a spotlight on all lurkers.

Which would mainly be,

DarthMauler
GrthWllms
H4x.M4g3
Sk3l
Thundergod Cid and
Ogianres.

Just the main group of players that are alive with relatively low amount of posts, most of which have added little light. (They were mainly involved in the B_Real thing, saying how much sense he or I made)

Sithdarth · 07-10-2006, 06:38 AM

Ok I'm going to throw this out there:

When one looks at the front page list one notices 3 evil roles clustered towards that top. Now assuming Garud randomly distributed his roles with some kind of random number thingy, we can infer some things probablistically.

1) While the individual odds of any role landing on any spot on the list is even the odds of them all landing right next to each other get slimer and slimer the more that wind up that way. Knowing this those sections of the list that have the most consectutive unknown roles are the most likely place for a mafiate role. That would mean Skeleton, Ogrianes, Sithdarth(Me), Neyo The King, grthwllms, The Space Pope, Fenris Wolf, Darthmauler, and Mesden have the highest probablity using this method. Followed by Newb, Ecurt, Daisuke, and MoM. Then finally, h4x m4g3, and Thundergod Cid.

2) Those closest to a mafiate role have a slightly lower probability of being a mafiate, for reasons stated above. Basically this is like say flipping a coin twice and ending up with both sides the same. While each flip is still 50/50 ending up with both heads or both tails is only a 1 in 4 chance. Flip a coin forty times and list the results then group them into pairs and count up how many pairs are both the same and how many different. It shoud come out as being about 50/50. Which means the chances of two consectutive heads or tails is 1/4. So I'd say Ogrianes, Sithdarth(Me), Neyo, grth, Fenris, Darthmauler, and Mesden have the highest probablistic chance in all. Skeleton and The Space Pope coming in close second. Possibly tied by MoM, Newb and H4x m4ge(he gets bumped up so much for being fartherest from any known evil role), then Daisuke and Thundergod Cid bring up the rear.

Now if we cross reference with posting history we find that Darthmauler, Newb, H4x m4g3, and grth have the lowest post counts in this list. (Dmauler:4, Newb:6, H4x:7, grth:9) Next up at under 20 posts we have: Skeleton: 11, Thundergod: 11, Ogrianes: 12, The Space Pop: 16 Daisuke: 16, MoM: 17, and Neyo: 19. Then the over 30 crowd: Sithdarth(Me): 30, Ecurt: 39, Fenris: 49, and Mesden way up at 87.

So given all that infromation I might arrange my list thusly:
1) Darthmauler
2) Grthwllms
3) Skeleton
4) Ogrianes
5) Newb
6) H4x m4g3
7) The Space Pope
8) Neyo the King
9) MoM
10) Ecurt
11) Sithdarth(Me)
12) Daisuke
13) Fenris Wolf
14) Thunder God Cid
15) Mesden

Now I haven't done any actual calculation, nor is this actually proof of anything. Its basically a guage for myself so that when presented with two arguments of equal weight I'll have something else to help decide. Also, as much as I like just going buy post count this approach added two more variables hopefully increasing the accuracy of its predictions at least slightly. Now I could go further and cross reference with latest post and the degree to which it was helpfull but that's a little to much work for right now. I'll probably do that next time.

07-09-2006, 09:28 PM	#601
P-Sleazy Can Summon Sparkles by Posing! Join Date: May 2004 Location: Kinging it up! Posts: 2,339	Could someone PLEASE for the love of the game move this along? Its boring to watch a game that's barely moving. I think some modding should be put into play here to speed things along. __________________ The King is your new master now. Totally returning for the Summer: a mafia Game: Sign ups HERE!

07-10-2006, 01:27 AM	#605
neyo the king Dr. Ivo Robotnik Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Mobius Posts: 674	Ok, I'd love to contribute something here, but I seriously got nothing. I mean, the amount of nothing that I have is to a new degree. I went through most of the thread, and looked around, and I found nothing. The whole Spacepope thing I thought of, and I decided that he wasn't acting scummy enough to warrant a vote. __________________ I am Doctor Ivo Robotnik, the greatest scientific genius in the universe! ~"Where There's Smoke, They Pinch Back."~

07-10-2006, 02:32 AM	#607
GARUD Demon Slayer and Ass Kicker Join Date: May 2005 Location: Hell... and demons are my bitches Posts: 1,460	Deadline it is. You have two days starting from this post to aquire a lynch target. __________________ Just a post made by your neighborhood ~~friendly DEMON SLAYER~~ jerk PSYCHO KILLER! ~Awesome Avatar by Mauve.

07-10-2006, 06:38 AM	#610
Sithdarth Friendly Neighborhood Quantum Hobo Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Outside the M-brane look'n in Posts: 5,403	Ok I'm going to throw this out there: When one looks at the front page list one notices 3 evil roles clustered towards that top. Now assuming Garud randomly distributed his roles with some kind of random number thingy, we can infer some things probablistically. 1) While the individual odds of any role landing on any spot on the list is even the odds of them all landing right next to each other get slimer and slimer the more that wind up that way. Knowing this those sections of the list that have the most consectutive unknown roles are the most likely place for a mafiate role. That would mean Skeleton, Ogrianes, Sithdarth(Me), Neyo The King, grthwllms, The Space Pope, Fenris Wolf, Darthmauler, and Mesden have the highest probablity using this method. Followed by Newb, Ecurt, Daisuke, and MoM. Then finally, h4x m4g3, and Thundergod Cid. 2) Those closest to a mafiate role have a slightly lower probability of being a mafiate, for reasons stated above. Basically this is like say flipping a coin twice and ending up with both sides the same. While each flip is still 50/50 ending up with both heads or both tails is only a 1 in 4 chance. Flip a coin forty times and list the results then group them into pairs and count up how many pairs are both the same and how many different. It shoud come out as being about 50/50. Which means the chances of two consectutive heads or tails is 1/4. So I'd say Ogrianes, Sithdarth(Me), Neyo, grth, Fenris, Darthmauler, and Mesden have the highest probablistic chance in all. Skeleton and The Space Pope coming in close second. Possibly tied by MoM, Newb and H4x m4ge(he gets bumped up so much for being fartherest from any known evil role), then Daisuke and Thundergod Cid bring up the rear. Now if we cross reference with posting history we find that Darthmauler, Newb, H4x m4g3, and grth have the lowest post counts in this list. (Dmauler:4, Newb:6, H4x:7, grth:9) Next up at under 20 posts we have: Skeleton: 11, Thundergod: 11, Ogrianes: 12, The Space Pop: 16 Daisuke: 16, MoM: 17, and Neyo: 19. Then the over 30 crowd: Sithdarth(Me): 30, Ecurt: 39, Fenris: 49, and Mesden way up at 87. So given all that infromation I might arrange my list thusly: 1) Darthmauler 2) Grthwllms 3) Skeleton 4) Ogrianes 5) Newb 6) H4x m4g3 7) The Space Pope 8) Neyo the King 9) MoM 10) Ecurt 11) Sithdarth(Me) 12) Daisuke 13) Fenris Wolf 14) Thunder God Cid 15) Mesden Now I haven't done any actual calculation, nor is this actually proof of anything. Its basically a guage for myself so that when presented with two arguments of equal weight I'll have something else to help decide. Also, as much as I like just going buy post count this approach added two more variables hopefully increasing the accuracy of its predictions at least slightly. Now I could go further and cross reference with latest post and the degree to which it was helpfull but that's a little to much work for right now. I'll probably do that next time.