Nothing is as it Seems Mafia: The Game

[Cephrir]

Originally Posted by Zavage

Assuming roles were randomly assigned and having no knowledge of any role but your own, ODWTF has a same probability of having a scum role as anyone else.

Exactly.

Originally Posted by ODWTF

how do you know exactly how many mafiates there are in each family? After all, who except a mafiate knows exactly how many mafiates are in each family. With a game this size it isn't unreasonable to think there may not be the normal 5 mafiates per family. But then, there might be. Who knows? I don't.

Darn, I was gonna say that.

Given that we are still kind of in the random stage, I think this is better than my current vote.
Unvote BHS, Vote Sithdarth

[Sithdarth]

Yeah, thats all great and all, but it stopped making any sense WAY up there near the top of your post. I wouldn't even respond to all that, except you are accusing me. So yeah, I think its all jibber-jabber (Copyright Mr T.) and nonsense.

1) All initial votes are non-sense and there is no way to defend against them. This is no more of an accusation than any of them. This is just a more complicated way of making a guess so that given the out come of said guess I get maximum utility

2) I assure you this is all quite correct and valid probability. You can go do a Google search and confirm all the equations. Plus you don't have to understand it because really its only useful to me and only when I have nothing else to go on besides guessing.

Of course I could throw a bunch of wrenches into your math like how do you know exactly how many mafiates there are in each family? After all, who except a mafiate knows exactly how many mafiates are in each family. With a game this size it isn't unreasonable to think there may not be the normal 5 mafiates per family. But then, there might be. Who knows? I don't.

Well this quote by Fenris:
"Honestly it's just like any other mafia game except it's huge.

There will be three mafias, two cults, a plethora of town roles and some self-aligned stuff goin' around, presuming 50 person sign up."

Strongly suggests to me that each Mafia only has 5 people other-wise why make 3. Could I be wrong? Of course so could anyone and everyone else's assumptions.

As a side note this:

With a game this size it isn't unreasonable to think there may not be the normal 5 mafiates per family.

Does in fact seem unreasonable to me which leads to a few conclusions:
1) You do have inside info
2) You don't have inside info but you do have a non-town role
3) You're just panicking for some strange reason

But, yeah what I'm getting to is that I think your math is wrong, and that you state by your own words that it isn't infallible.

1) Its probability of course it isn't infallible that's what probability is
2) You're perfectly welcome to disagree with it if you can spot on error

Originally Posted by Cephrir

Darn, I was gonna say that.

You people have some really crazy non-standard logic.

[Mr.Bookworm]

Unvote: Giever

Vote: Sithdarth

Besides that no one understands what the hell you're talking about, I could totally see a baddy trying to overwhelm the town with numbers and pseudobabble.

[Red Fighter 1073]

Originally Posted by Sithdarth

Math

Here's some math that everyone can understand. Your math made 100% no sense! Take that! Now who is the smart one?

[Sithdarth]

Besides that no one understands what the hell you're talking about, I could totally see a baddy trying to overwhelm the town with numbers and pseudobabble.

1) Half the people here generally have no idea why people vote they way they do for their first vote. That's never been an excuse for a bandwagon before.

2) Overwhelm them to what purpose? We're all just shooting in the dark. If anything trying to confuse the town at this stage is the surest way to get yourself voted for. Case in point.

3) Its not pseudobabble (which isn't even really a word; it'd mean false or fake babble). I'd really like for someone to actually demonstrate what was wrong in that math. Keep in mind these are not about the probabilities of this people being mafiates as much as it is about me having made a correct guess. Its a subtle distinction.

[Mr.Bookworm]

1) Point. But most people are actually voting randomly. You're being odd.

2) Yes, but a huge block of numbers and long words isn't very user friendly.

3) It's long, confusing words, added with a ton of numbers that appear random. it may not be pseudobabble, but it looks like it.

[Ole' Dude With the Face]

Originally Posted by Sithdarth

3) You're just panicking for some strange reason

Not quite. If I was panicking I would have freaked out, lashed back at you with accusations and voted for you. Notice that I did none of that, even while several others are voting for you. I'm as cool as it gets because I know you are wrong.

Originally Posted by Sithdarth

Keep in mind these are not about the probabilities of this people being mafiates as much as it is about me having made a correct guess. Its a subtle distinction.

Well, since all the rest of us are apparently stupid, mind throwing us a bone and telling us where the distinction lies? If I've read your case correctly (which I may not have), you are guessing who is a scum role based on random wild guesses and using math to support yourself. To me that means that you are accusing those people on the list of yours as scum and I rank highest upon that list. Would I be right up to this point?

[Jeneralissimo]

Unvote: wasoe
Vote: SithDarth

His posts are just way too long. This is Mafia, not math class.

Thus sayeth the quail.

[Zavage]

Originally Posted by Mr.Bookworm

Besides that no one understands what the hell you're talking about

Well I almost do, but I haven't done statistics on that level for a while.

[Sithdarth]

1) Point. But most people are actually voting randomly. You're being odd.

I don't know that whole barrel thing seems odd to me. As well as half the other voting because of in jokes things. Its all a matter of perspective really. I like math. I am comfortable with math. I look at the world primarily through math. As such I apply math whenever possible. Its really not that different than a sarcastic person that always applies sarcasm to every situation.

2) Yes, but a huge block of numbers and long words isn't very user friendly.

In-jokes and complete and utter random humor aren't very user friendly either. At least to the people not in on the jokes. Besides its not like I actually asked anyone to change a vote just explained mine.

3) It's long, confusing words, added with a ton of numbers that appear random. it may not be pseudobabble, but it looks like it.

1) Again pseudobabble makes no sense as a word. Maybe technobabble is what you're trying to say

2) Just because you don't understand it doesn't mean its fake.

Originally Posted by ODWTF

Well, since all the rest of us are apparently stupid, mind throwing us a bone and telling us where the distinction lies? If I've read your case correctly (which I may not have), you are guessing who is a scum role based on random wild guesses and using math to support yourself. To me that means that you are accusing those people on the list of yours as scum and I rank highest upon that list. Would I be right up to this point?

Not stupid just you probably haven't taken a college level probability and stats course and I probably shouldn't really expect people to follow the math. I'd just like it if people didn't immediately assume it was wrong without proof.

What I'm saying is that right now each person on that list still has exactly the same probability as anyone else of being mafiate. You got picked because I have a quirks that among other things make me like starting from the bottom of list. Really it could have been anyone at all. In fact, UNVOTE: ODWTF since its better to just wait and see what the night brings in regards to information.