Mafia: NPF edition - Page 68

Mesden · 07-16-2006, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grthwllms

Well I put up a point in B reals defense as well.

But you didn't state a bogus (Still viable, I know) power and then redirect vote toward a townie.

neyo the king · 07-16-2006, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mesden

Regular vig, please Roleclaim.

Ok.

Roleclaim: Vigilante

Yes, I know what most of you are thinking.

"OMG his only roleclaiming to not get killeded! LYNCH HIM!!!11!1"

Well, I'll tell you right now that I am the Vig, but I'm not really sure how I can prove it...

h4x.m4g3 · 07-16-2006, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neyo the King

Well, I'll tell you right now that I am the Vig, but I'm not really sure how I can prove it...

It's quite simple actually, if you aren't the vig, the real vig will kill you tonight.

Actually now that I think about it your scumminess actually proves your innocence. I hate to argue your case for you but clarify me if I'm wrong, you said not to lynch B_Real and urge the vig to get him, because you being the vig were planning kill him that night if he lived, and were afraid he really had this secret role he was bluffing with.

Its the same thing I did in Mafia Basic with my strategy for what the reporter should do.

Unvote: Neyo As I said, I recognize his strategy because it was my own in another game. Plus the real vig will get him if he's lieing.

Bailey · 07-16-2006, 01:26 PM

Alright.

Unvote: Neyo
Vote: Sithdarth

Either way, Neyo is dying tonight.

If he's the vig, the mafia kills him.
If he isn't, the real vig does.

Mondt · 07-16-2006, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Newb

Unvote: Neyo
Vote: Sithdarth

Either way, Neyo is dying tonight.

If he's the vig, the mafia kills him.
If he isn't, the real vig does.

Yuppers. Unvote: Neyo

Newb says it for me. We don't need a lynching for him because he dies tonight anyway.

Mesden · 07-16-2006, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Newb

Alright.

Unvote: Neyo
Vote: Sithdarth

Either way, Neyo is dying tonight.

If he's the vig, the mafia kills him.
If he isn't, the real vig does.

Wrong. They're not going to kill the vig tonight.

Also, Unvote: Neyo

Bailey · 07-16-2006, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mesden

Wrong. They're not going to kill the vig tonight.

Well then it does look like he's going to survive this night. I just looked back through. Neyo had been voting for Ogian before he switched to Darth in order to throw the balance and save himself.

EDIT: Since it looks like Ogian was vig-killed, Neyo is probably the vig

Truce · 07-16-2006, 11:19 PM

Unvote: Neyo
Vote: Sithdarth

La, la, la, la, la!

It's only a matter of time, unless there is a secret role that pops up.

Sithdarth · 07-17-2006, 01:07 AM

Ok math lesson time because math is fun: (also because I botched the hell out of the original explination.)

Probability is defined as the number of ways an event could happen divided by the total number of possibilities. We have 25 possible outcomes and 7 chances those could be evil. Now joint probability is simple you just multiply each probablity together and bang you have your answer. This is without replacement so each time you assign a role the numbers go down. (So say the probability of the first 5 on the list all coming up evil is 7/25 * 6/24 * 5/23 * 4/22 * 3/21 * 2/20 * 1/19 or .00000208029956314)

Lets compute some odds:

1 townie and then 4 evil in first 5:
.002371541502

2 townies and then 3 evil in first 5:
.010079051383

3 townies and then 2 evil in first 5:
.032252964427

Now for something a little different say were four into the list and one evil role was assigned and we want to find the probability of the next two being evil:
(6/21) * (5/20) = .071428571429
Same situation both town aligned:
(15/21) * (14/20) = .5
Same situation with the one being town aligned second being evil:
(15/21) * (6/20) = .214285714286

So you can see random chance favors finding evil rolls farther apart. Its not definite but its better than just going with my gut, or at the very least as good, and I'd never vote only on the probabilities.

TheSpacePope · 07-17-2006, 01:27 AM

I think that I'm going to have to go with the flow here and
Unvote Neyo, and
vote Sithdarth.
Stating facts about what probablitity is does not lessen the probability that you are not mafia.
Just serves to confuse.
Smoke and mirrors=Mafia in my eyes.

07-17-2006, 01:27 AM	#680
TheSpacePope Gigity Join Date: May 2005 Location: Lincoln. Nebraska Posts: 1,536	I think that I'm going to have to go with the flow here and Unvote Neyo, and vote Sithdarth. Stating facts about what probablitity is does not lessen the probability that you are not mafia. Just serves to confuse. Smoke and mirrors=Mafia in my eyes. __________________ Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust

07-16-2006, 11:19 PM	#678
Truce Lakitu Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 3,856	Unvote: Neyo Vote: Sithdarth La, la, la, la, la! It's only a matter of time, unless there is a secret role that pops up.

07-17-2006, 01:07 AM	#679
Sithdarth Friendly Neighborhood Quantum Hobo Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Outside the M-brane look'n in Posts: 5,403	Ok math lesson time because math is fun: (also because I botched the hell out of the original explination.) Probability is defined as the number of ways an event could happen divided by the total number of possibilities. We have 25 possible outcomes and 7 chances those could be evil. Now joint probability is simple you just multiply each probablity together and bang you have your answer. This is without replacement so each time you assign a role the numbers go down. (So say the probability of the first 5 on the list all coming up evil is 7/25 * 6/24 * 5/23 * 4/22 * 3/21 * 2/20 * 1/19 or .00000208029956314) Lets compute some odds: 1 townie and then 4 evil in first 5: .002371541502 2 townies and then 3 evil in first 5: .010079051383 3 townies and then 2 evil in first 5: .032252964427 Now for something a little different say were four into the list and one evil role was assigned and we want to find the probability of the next two being evil: (6/21) * (5/20) = .071428571429 Same situation both town aligned: (15/21) * (14/20) = .5 Same situation with the one being town aligned second being evil: (15/21) * (6/20) = .214285714286 So you can see random chance favors finding evil rolls farther apart. Its not definite but its better than just going with my gut, or at the very least as good, and I'd never vote only on the probabilities.